Karl-Anthony Towns Odds and Props: KAT Feasts on Long-Range Looks

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals was played at as high a level as you will see in these playoffs. The Dallas Mavericks pulled out a narrow victory, and the Minnesota Timberwolves will be rightly feeling that they let one slip away.

But despite it being such a close game, the Wolves stars did not come close to playing their best basketball. I’m expecting Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards to have major bounce-back performances in Game 2 of Mavericks vs. Timberwolves.

My NBA picks center around how I expect those two to play off each other and why I think there are some high-value plays for Friday’s Karl-Anthony Towns props.

Karl-Anthony Towns prop picks for May 24

• Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 threes (+125 at bet365)
  
  Same-Game Parlay
• Towns Over 2.5 threes
• Over 20.5 points
• Under 8.5 rebounds
  (+410 at DraftKings)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Karl-Anthony Towns best bet

Karl-Anthony Towns pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 threes

The Dallas Mavericks' interior defense is as advertised. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have risen to every challenge so far in this postseason, but for the first time, they’re facing a team that is nearly as dedicated to denying the rim as they are. Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns both struggled to get quality looks at the rim in Game 1, and the Wolves will need better performances from both to avoid an 0-2 hole.

There’s good reason to believe they will, and that Towns’ outside shooting will play a prominent role. Home teams that lose the first game of a playoff series historically come back with an overwhelming performance in Game 2, and this Wolves team has proven to be resilient.

And the shots that Towns was getting in Game 1 were not bad looks, at least not for him. Towns went 2-9 from deep, with the majority of those coming from above the break on mostly open looks.

With many players, allowing a high volume of above-the-break threes is seen as an acceptable outcome for the defense. And that might seem to be borne out by Towns going just 1-6 on such attempts in Game 1.

But that is not a sustainable strategy for a shooter of KAT’s caliber. Towns shot 39.8% from three this season, but per Cleaning the Glass he shot 42% on above-the-break threes during the regular season, and he’s at that same mark through the playoffs. 

If the Dallas game plan is to ward off drives by Edwards and pack the paint at all costs, Towns is going to get those same looks again and hit them at a better rate. It was stunning how often Towns was able to get clean separation on a screen by Rudy Gobert for a pick-and-pop three, and how many times a Dallas defender willingly went under the screen on KAT. Towns is a flat-out elite shooter in those spots.

And Towns continuing to take and make those shots at a high volume will be crucial for the Wolves' overall strategy. They’re going to want to get Ant going more to the rim in Game 2, and that only happens if Towns is aggressively hunting his outside shot.

It would be tempting to get caught up in Towns’ mini-slump. He’s shot poorly in three straight games now. But the larger sample of his career, this regular season, and even these playoffs suggest this is just a blip. 

It’s why this play is available at plus-money odds, and given the way Dallas is playing him, I think chances are excellent he breaks through in Game 2.

Karl-Anthony Towns Prop: Over 2.5 threes (+125 at bet365)

Karl-Anthony Towns same-game parlay

Over 2.5 threes

Over 20.5 points

Under 8.5 rebounds

+410 at DraftKings

The Mavericks have embraced a strategy of “anybody but Ant” on defense, and it paid dividends in Game 1. Ant had a poor game, never caught a rhythm, and appeared passive for large stretches of action.

But passivity by a star of Ant’s immense talents is the result of a good scheme, not a simple lack of effort. Chris Finch will put Ant in better position to succeed in Game 2, and I believe that starts with centering more action on Towns and Edwards’ two-man game.

If the problem for Edwards is a lack of space, having him one pass away from one of the NBA’s best shooters more consistently is one of the more obvious adjustments. I think that leads to even better spot up looks for Towns overall.

And if Towns is hitting more shots from outside as I expect, he’ll be able to leverage the threat of his shot to catch and go and drive to the hoop.

However, that also means that Towns is going to continue to spend less time parked in the paint on offense. That space will be reserved for Ant’s drives and Gobert in the dunker spot lurking for an offensive board. That should see Towns have another down rebounding game after having just seven in Game 1.

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