The Dallas Mavericks face a historic hill to climb if they want to be the first team in playoff history to rally from an 0-3 deficit. Before pundits even consider their chances of the ultimate comeback, however, they have to prove that they can win one game.
Oddsmakers are divided, and Kristaps Porzingis remains officially questionable ahead of Friday’s first close-out attempt by the Boston Celtics, so there’s plenty of news and crucial NBA odds factors to dive into ahead of Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 4 on Friday night.
Celtics vs. Mavs Game 4 news and notes
Public backs Boston sweep
Sportsbooks are at a bit of a loss as to how to price Game 4. Most (but not all) oddsmakers opened with the Dallas Mavericks as slight 1-point favourites Wednesday evening. Some instead offered the Boston Celtics at -1. Movement across most (but again, not all) sportsbooks has seen the Celtics either take position as favorites or slightly expand their existing edge to as high as -1.5.
The public is buying Boston in this one, with a whopping 77% of the handle and 79% of all bets coming on the Celtics spread at BetMGM. That stands in stark contrast to the first three games of the series, where the volume of bets largely came in on Dallas, even as sharp bettors seemed to favor Boston. After three fairly demoralizing defeats, the public has lost faith in the Mavericks' ability to compete.
The total opened at 211.5, briefly dipped to 210.5 but has risen again to 211.5 at most sportsbooks. There’s broad consensus on a higher scoring game, with 57% of bettors taking the Over per Covers Consensus data.
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Will Porzingis’ absence matter this time?
The health and availability of Kristaps Porzingis was the news item heading into Game 3, with growing pessimism on his status fueling what ended up being a 1.5-point move on the spread in favor of Dallas. That was an overreaction, as the Celtics proved more than capable of winning without him.
While officially questionable again on Friday, I wouldn’t expect to see him back any time soon. Porzingis’ condition is so rare that there were differing opinions on how it would impact him, but what was universally agreed is that he would ultimately require surgery to deal with it. The issue isn’t swelling or even just pain, it’s the risk of serious injury. If the medical staff refused to clear him in Game 3, it would be puzzling to see him sit up 48 hours later.
While Dallas didn’t win Game 3, they were in better position to do so than in any game prior. They do find it easier to play their style without Porzingis on the floor, but their chances of pressing that advantage were squandered by Jason Kidd electing to go with Tim Hardaway Jr. for a disastrous 20-minute stretch (he finished a team-worst -16).
With a more composed Luka Doncic and a shortened rotation, the Mavericks are absolutely a chance to win this game. With public action flooding in on Boston, the spread could continue to move ahead of Friday night, making a late bet on the Mavs moneyline an intriguing option.
NBA Finals series odds update
The Celtics were already massive -800 favorites to finish the job and win the championship sitting at 2-0. Now, with the never-before-choked-away 3-0 lead in their pocket and every Dallas role player having turned back into pumpkins after a charmed Cinderella run, that number has hit -10,000 at BetMGM.
For the particularly brave, that means that Dallas is now available at +2,000.
