US Election Betting Odds: Trump Ahead of Biden for 2024

Presidential election odds are seeing plenty of movement with Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden as the US election betting favorite. We bring you the 2024 election odds for dozens of potential candidates, including Kamala Harris, AOC and The Rock.

Last Updated: Apr 25, 2022 12:27 PM ET Read Time: 5 min
Joe Biden Donald Trump 2024 US Presidential Election
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With less than 180 days remaining until the midterms, former POTUS Donald Trump continues to sit atop the U.S. presidential election odds board at +300.

Incumbent president Joe Biden is in second place at +450 amidst cratering approval ratings but there's still time for him to close the gap.

With the next election still two years away, there are plenty of candidates to consider, so let's look at the election 2024 odds and see who has the best betting odds of becoming the next president of the United States.

Odds to win the 2024 US presidential election

Election Winner Odds to win 2024 US election
Donald Trump +300
Joe Biden +450
Ron DeSantis +550
Kamala Harris +900
Mike Pence +1,600
Nikki Haley +1,600
Pete Buttigieg +2,000
Tucker Carlson +3,300
Elizabeth Warren +3,300
Bruce Springsteen +4,000
Mike Pompeo +4,000
Michelle Obama  +5,000
Ted Cruz +5,000
Tim Scott +5,000
Kristi Noem +5,000
Tammy Duckworth +5,000
John Hickenlooper +5,000
Dwayne Johnson +5,000
Tom Cotton +5,000
Corey Booker +6,600
Gavin Newsome +6,600
Gretchen Whitmer +6,600
Tim Kaine +6,600
Ivanka Trump +6,600
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +10,000
Marco Rubio +10,000
Amy Klobuchar +10,000
Paul Ryan +10,000
Candace Owens +10,000
Andrew Yang +10,000
Aryanna Pressley +10,000
Larry Hogan +10,000
Hillary Clinton +10,000
Rand Paul +10,000
Tulsi Gabbard +10,000
Josh Hawley +10,000
Mike DeWine +10,000
Michael Bloomberg +10,000
Donald Trump Jr. +10,000
Mitt Romney +10,000
Jim Jordan +10,000

Odds courtesy of William Hill on April 25, 2022.

Favorites to win the 2024 US presidential election

Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650. Those odds have shifted massively and Trump is now leading the field as the 2024 U.S. presidential election favorite at +300. Biden is second at +450 while Harris has dropped all the way to fourth place at +900 with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis jumping into third.

Other presidential betting favorites for 2024 include former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley (+1,600), Trump's VP Mike Pence (+1,600), Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (+2,000), and Fox News host and political pundit Tucker Carlson (+3,300).

Joe Biden's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

President Biden's approval rating saw an immediate spike just after the State of the Union address on March 1 but that small surge in popularity was just a brief respite from steadily declining numbers. 

CNN's most recent "poll of polls" (an average of the last four national polls) had Biden's approval rate at just 39% with 55% disapproving.

Biden's latest market prices on the Smarkets exchange give him just a 15.6% chance of being re-elected in 2024 — a marginal improvement from the 14.7% it bottomed out at in February.

Biden's foreign policy will continue to be tested in the coming months as he tries to contain Russian aggression without entering the US in another war abroad. At home, the Biden administration needs to build on the recovering economy while trying to get rising inflation and supply chain issues under control — all while dealing with Democrat infighting.

Despite all those obstacles, Biden has reportedly told former president Obama that he will run again in 2024, although if the Democrats get hammered at the midterm elections in November that could very well change. 

Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Although Trump has yet to formally announce he will campaign in 2024, but will be holding a rally in Nebraska next week and remains atop the board at +300. While recently admitting that his health could be a problem, Trump also declared that his biggest party rivals Pence, DeSantis, and Mike Pompeo would not oppose him in a Republican primary.

Trump remains a polarizing figure when it comes to the armed conflict in Ukraine. His detractors believe that his conciliatory approach to Putin emboldened Russian aggression while his supporters point out that his four-year presidency was relatively peaceful and believe that the U.S. should avoid foreign intervention.

The former President has not strayed far from the spotlight since his election defeat 18 months ago, staging multiple rallies across the Midwest and South while amassing $124 million in fundraising money.

According to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released at the end of January, Trump would dominate a hypothetical eight-person presidential primary. According to the poll, 57% of Republicans would support Trump for another White House bid, miles ahead of DeSantis (12%) and Pence (11%). 

Kamala Harris' odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Harris has seen her odds tumble but she remains the Democrat favorite if Biden decides not to run again. A December survey of Democrat primary voters indicated that 31% would support Harris if Biden chose to forego re-election, 20% higher than second-place Buttigieg.

Harris is having a rocky tenure as VP and is struggling to break ground with her two biggest projects; border migration and national voting reform. In November her approval rating sank to a comically low 28%, the lowest of any VP in modern memory — a list that includes Dick Cheney.

Harris was previously on the U.S. Senate and has also served as the Attorney General of California. At 57 years of age, Harris is entering her political prime and ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 before dropping out to endorse Biden.

Ron DeSantis' odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

The biggest riser on the presidential election odds board is DeSantis, who was +6,600 a year ago and is now in third place at +550. The 43-year-old has remained coy about whether he will run for President in 2024 but remains a popular option for Republican voters if Trump isn't in contention. In the previously mentioned Harvard Caps/Harris poll, DeSantis had 30% of support in a field that excluded Trump, while Pence was second at 24%. 

The Florida governor earned praise from the right for his state's laissez-faire policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. There are rumblings that while Trump would almost certainly win the GOP primaries, DeSantis would have a better shot at defeating the Dem opposition in a general election. 

Tucker Carlson's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Carlson has shot down rumors that he would consider running for president in the next election but oddsmakers don't seem so sure, with his odds sitting at +3,300. Carlson has a massive following, as he hosts the most-watched show in cable news, and his brand of conservatism appeals to many of the same voters that support Trump.

It will be interesting to see if Carlson's election odds plummet after on-air comments where he echoed Putin's arguments in favor of an invasion. Carlson's statements were so favorable towards Putin that clips from his TV segment were aired on Russian state-sponsored media.

AOC's odds of winning the 2024 US Presidential Election

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as one of the brightest young stars of the Democratic Party but has seen her odds fall from +3,300 in the New Year to +5,000 in March and she has now plummeted all the way to +10,000. AOC is currently serving as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, representing New York's 14th district.

The politically savvy 31-year-old has built a massive online following and will be turning the requisite age of presidential eligibility just before the 2024 election.

Her biggest obstacle may in fact be her own party, with her progressive policies likely to alienate some of her colleagues unless they soften over time.

She recently hit the news for criticizing the Biden administration for not doing more to help student debt while Nancy Pelosi's new book "This Will Not Pass" allegedly accuses AOC and other progressives of vying to be "queen bee." Ocasio-Cortez could run the risk of being another Bernie Sanders if she can't convince the moderates that she is willing to make concessions on key issues.

Bruce Springsteen's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

What would election betting odds be without some celebrity long-shots? Kanye West emerged as a massive underdog candidate in the last election and Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is at +5,000 while Rock and Roll Hall of Famer Bruce Springsteen has surged to +4,000, ahead of several prominent politicians.  

We're not quite sure why "The Boss" is in the picture after being off the board entirely. While the music superstar had been openly critical of Trump when he was in the White House, Springsteen has never indicated any official interest in politics.

That said, he was born in the USA and born to run, which are really the biggest prerequisites for the job. Hell, he might even split the East Coast working-class vote, especially if he wins New York and New Jersey. Although he'd still have a lot of campaigning to do on the streets of Philadelphia. 

It seems like a political career is a bit out of left-field for Springsteen, but Trump may have opened the door for future celebrity presidential candidates, especially ones oozing with charisma and money. And Springsteen did just sell his music for half a billion dollars, which would make for quite a campaign fund.

2022 US midterm election betting odds

Action on the 2022 midterms is heating up as Americans head to the polls this November. The Republican party is favored to take the house and take more than 50 seats in the Senate.

Odds to win the U.S. House of Representatives

Result Odds
Republican Majority -800
Democrat Majority +450
No Majority +6600

Odds courtesy of William Hill on April 25, 2022.

Odds for the number of Republican Senate seats

Result Odds
Over 50 -275
Exactly 50 +350
Under 50 +550

Odds courtesy of William Hill on April 25, 2022.

2024 US election betting odds over time

Legal election betting in the United States

No U.S. states have legal election betting, so regulated betting sites don't offer election odds to Americans. However, bettors in other countries bet on election odds.

US election betting odds FAQs

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