2024 Presidential Election Betting Odds: Trump Pulling Away from Biden in Election Rematch

Trump's legal woes aren't slowing him down as he dominated the Republican primaries and is still ahead of Joe Biden in the latest 2024 US Election odds.

May 17, 2024 • 12:06 ET • 5 min read

We're just six months away from the 2024 US Election and Donald Trump is back atop the presidential odds board. 

It looks like we'll almost certainly get a rematch from the last election cycle when Joe Biden won the White House, and while the two rivals were neck-and-neck just a few weeks ago, Trump is back to being the odds-on favorite at -125 with Biden at +125.

It seems that books have finally come around to the realization that Trump and Biden are virtual locks to represent the Republican and Democrat parties since other candidates have seen their odds plummet or been removed from the board entirely. That said, Robert Kennedy Jr. (+1,600) and former first lady Michelle Obama (+2,500) are still lurking in the background.

With another clash between Trump and Biden looking inevitable, the field has narrowed, so let's look at the 2024 election odds and see who has the highest probability of becoming the next president of the United States.

2024 presidential election betting odds

To give context to the next election odds, we've provided the implied probability along with each candidate's odds of becoming the next president of the United States in 2024.

Candidate Odds to win 2024 US election at bet365 Implied probability
Republican Logo Donald Trump -125 55.6%
Democratic Logo Joe Biden +125 44.4%
Robert Kennedy Jr.  +2,500 3.8%
Democratic Logo Michelle Obama +2,500 3.8%
Democratic Logo Gavin Newsom +4,000 2.4%
Democratic Logo Kamala Harris +4,000 2.4%
Republican Logo Nikki Haley +5,500 1.8%
Democratic Logo Gretchen Whitmer +10,000 1%
Democratic Logo Elizabeth Warren  +15,000 0.66%
Democratic Logo Hillary Clinton +15,000 0.66%
Republican Logo Kanye West +50,000 0.2%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of May 17, 2024.

Latest Presidential Election odds updates 2024

Favorites to win the 2024 US presidential election

Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650.

Those odds have seen a ton of movement, with Trump now at -110 and Biden moving all the way to +125, while Harris has plummeted all the way to sixth at +4,000. Robert Kennedy Jr. (+1,600) and Michelle Obama (+2,500) are just ahead of Harris, which is due more to liability at sportsbooks than their actual chances of winning the presidency. 

While Trump and Biden are firmly in control of their respective parties, there are still six other Democrats on the presidential odds board, with just one Republican (Nikki Haley at +5,500).

Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

If you thought that Donald Trump would quietly fade away after losing the 2020 election, you were very wrong. Trump's odds to win the presidency have ebbed and flowed since the last election, but he's been the favorite for most of the last year and has once again separated from Biden after being tied last month. 

Despite facing four separate trials, Trump remains wildly popular among the Republican base. It's looking likely that his legal trials will be delayed until after the election, which would allow him to focus on his upcoming campaign. 

While Trump has been held in contempt of court for Gag Order violations, it's clear that his antagonistic personality is a benefit and not a drawback to his voters. Trump's brand is rooted in his brashness, arrogance, and swaggering personality, which are viewed by the MAGA movement as strength. As strange as it might seem, Trump is better off angering judges and refusing to accept the 2020 election results rather than meekly standing in the courtroom or admitting defeat. 

Trump showed the hold that he has over the GOP by destroying other Republican candidates in the primaries without even bothering to take part in the debates. That said, while his MAGA brand is very much in lockstep with Republican voters, there are still doubts about whether he can win a general election. 

Trump was a -110 favorite after Super Tuesday, and while his odds shifted to +110 in April, he's down to -125 this month. A poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in May gave Trump a 43-41 lead over Biden, and he also had slim leads in ActiVote and YouGov polls in late April.

Joe Biden's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Biden's odds moved from +150 at the beginning of September to +200 in November, and is now at +125 in May. For months, there was value in betting on Biden, since there was a significant difference between his election odds and the odds of a Democrat victory. However, that gap has shrunk, with books finally accepting that he'll almost certainly remain at the head of the party in November. 

Biden's current approval rating of 38.8% at FiveThirtyEight is lower than what it was last year (42%). However, Biden's latest market prices on the Smarkets exchange give him a 42.02% chance of being re-elected in 2024. That's a significant bump from the 26.3% probability it was at just two months ago but is still three points lower than Trump, who sits at 45.05%.

Despite not being popular as a president, Biden remains more likable than Trump. However, he's viewed as a less decisive and effective leader, which is bad news with many voters dissatisfied with the direction of the country.

The border crisis and turmoil abroad continue to be poor optics for the Biden regime, especially with pro-Palestinian protests embroiling campuses across the country. While there have been improvements economically, the fed continues to hold high interest rates which feeds the perception of out of control inflation and a limping stock market.

Biden will need to address issues about illegal immigration while hoping that Trump's extreme stances will make him a tough sell for swing voters. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll showed Biden gaining ground in six key battleground states which will be crucial for him to win in November. 

Michelle Obama's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Former First Lady Michelle Obama just won't drop off the board. She currently has the fourth-shortest odds at +2,500 despite not publicly showing any interest in the position and Biden still leading the party. However, there was a rumor of an Obama party takeover, and despite that looking like a combination of wishful thinking and conspiracy theory, it has skewed the odds.

Those rumors were fueled by an opinion piece in the New York Post from Cindy Adams who claimed that the plan is for Biden to step aside citing health concerns and hand over reigns to Michelle at the Democratic convention in August.

This is a rumor that just won't go away and that's largely because of Biden's low popularity and the notion that the Dems need a different candidate to energize the voter base against Trump. That said, this seems like a pipe dream for leftists, and at this point in the election cycle, the Dems won't be changing horses midstream.

Robert Kennedy Jr.'s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

The 69-year-old scion of the prestigious Kennedy family, Kennedy emerged as a dark horse last year when he announced he would run for the Democratic Party nomination. He surged up to +900 on the presidential odds board following interviews with Joe Rogan and Piers Morgan, but it soon became apparent that many of his supporters were conservative-leaning and he had no chance of actually winning the party leadership. 

After plummeting in polls, RFK Jr. announced in October that he would run as an independent, and he currently sits at +1,600. Considering that no third-party candidate has even come close to being competitive in an election (Ross Perot gaining 19% of the popular vote in 1992 was the best showing from an independent in the last century), fade the polarizing Kennedy at any price. 

That said, Kennedy's biggest impact on the election will likely be which side he takes more votes away from. While RFK Jr. recently suggested that Biden drop out because he has a better chance of beating Trump, his tactics seem more suited to steal MAGA voters. It's telling that Trump recently went on the attack against Kennedy, declaring that a vote for him would be a “wasted protest vote” and that he’d “even take Biden over Junior.”

Kamala Harris' odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Harris has seen her odds sink to +4,000 after being the favorite early on in Biden's presidency. The Smarkets exchange gives her just a 2.9% chance of winning the presidency, lower than Obama and RFK Jr. 

Harris is having a rocky tenure as VP and has struggled to break ground with her two biggest projects: border migration and national voting reform. Her approval rating sits at just 37.1% according to FiveThirtyEight, which is at least a massive improvement from her comically low approval rate of 29% in November of 2021.

Harris remains wildly unpopular, but if the 81-year-old Biden has any sort of health concerns heading into November, she'd be the most likely to step in on short notice. 

Nikki Haley's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Nikki Haley officially dropped out of the Republican race after crushing defeats on Super Tuesday, but she remains on the election odds board as a massive longshot at +5,500. The governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017 and a former ambassador to the United Nations, Haley has a national profile and plenty of political experience, which led to her running for the nomination. 

Haley aimed to tap into the Never-Trumpers within the conservative base, as well as win voters across the aisle. However, members of the MAGA movement were opposed to her more moderate stances. In fact, while she won Vermont and D.C., that only reinforced her reputation as an "establishment conservative", with right-wingers deriding her victory in the political swamp of Washington.

With Haley still on the board, oddsmakers are likely bracing for liability in case Trump's legal issues catch up to him or he has a health scare — after all, at 77 years old, he isn't much younger than Biden.

2024 presidential election Republican candidates odds

It may seem hard to believe given his mounting legal challenges, but Donald Trump remains firmly in the driver's seat to earn his party's nomination yet again.

Nomination Winner bet365 Implied probability
Donald Trump -5,000 98%
Nikki Haley  +1,400 6.7%
Ryan Binkley +30,000 0.3%

Take a deeper dive into this year's heated race with our Republican party nominee odds page. 

2024 presidential election Democratic candidates odds  

Nomination Winner bet365 Implied probability
Joe Biden -500 83.3%
Gavin Newsom +900 10%
Michelle Obama +1,000 9.1%
Kamala Harris +1,200 7.7%
Dean Phillips +5,000 2%
Elizabeth Warren  +5,000 2%
Gretchen Whitmer +5,000 2%
Hillary Clinton +8,000 1.2%
Robert Kennedy Jr. +12,500 0.8%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +15,000 0.7%
Susan Rice  +20,000 0.5%
Pete Buttigieg +30,000 0.3%
Marianne Williamson +40,000 0.2%

Joe Biden's 2024 re-election odds

Barring ill-health, Joe Biden is a lock to secure his party's nomination at the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago this summer. However, winning the general election is a different matter altogether. The 81-year-old has consistently trailed Trump on the odds board since December 2023 despite overseeing America's steady economic growth and steering the country away from a widely anticipated recession. In spite of his efforts, only 39% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as the nation's commander-in-chief.

Take a deeper dive into this year's hotly contested race with our Democratic party nominee odds page. 

2024 president prediction

At +125, current president Joe Biden remains the best bet despite a tumultuous first term in office. Short of a Mitch McConnell-esque health breakdown, Biden is almost definitely going to be the Democrat candidate and the Dems are now slight favorites at -115 to win the White House. Trump might still have a slight lead in most polls, but that lead is shrinking and his odds are way too short when you consider that legal complications still stand in the way.

Winning party odds

Gender bet365 Implied probability
Republican -125 55.6%
Democrats +110 47.6%
Independent +2,500 3.8%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of May 17, 2024. 

Gender of next presidential election winner

Gender bet365 Implied probability
Male -5,000 98%
Female +1,200 7.7%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of May 17, 2024. 

With Biden and Trump now firmly in charge of their respective parties, it's surprising that these odds are even on the board. Not only has the United States never had a female president, but only one has even secured a party nomination — Hillary Clinton, who lost to Trump in 2016.

That said, Biden is 81 years old, while Trump will soon be 77 and is defending himself in multiple legal trials. If either of them have health or legal issues crop up, there is a very slim chance that they could be replaced and the most likely replacements for both would be women, with Harris likely replacing Biden and Haley stepping in for the GOP.

However, even if Harris or Haley ended up replacing the male candidates for their party, they would be in a very tough position to win the election.   

US presidential election winners

Year Winner Electoral votes Popular %
1789 George Washington 69 NA
1792 George Washington 132 NA
1796 John Adams 71 NA
1800 Thomas Jefferson 73 NA
1804 George Washington 162 NA
1808 James Madison 122 NA
1812 James Madison 128 NA
1816 James Monroe 183 NA
1820 James Monroe 231 NA
1824 John Quincy Adams 84 30.9
1828 Andrew Jackson 178 56.0
1832 Andrew Jackson 219 54.2
1836 Martin Van Buren 170 50.8
1840 William Henry Harrison 234 52.9
1844 James K. Polk 170 49.5
1848 Zachary Taylor 163 47.3
1852 Franklin Pierce 254 50.8
1856 James Buchanan 174 45.3
1860 Abraham Lincoln 180 39.3
1864 Abraham Lincoln 212 55.0
1868 Ulysses S. Grant 214 56.7
1872 Ulysses S. Grant 286 55.6
1876 Rutherford B. Hayes 184 48.0
1880 James A. Garfield 214 48.3
1884 Grover Cleveland 219 48.5
1888 Benjamin Harrison 233 47.8
1892 Grover Cleveland 277 46.1
1896 William McKinley 271 51.0
1900 William McKinley 292 51.7
1904 Theodore Roosevelt 336 56.4
1908 William Howard Taft 321 51.6
1912 Woodrow Wilson 435 41.8
1916 Woodrow Wilson 277 49.2
1920 Warren G. Harden 404 60.3
1924 Calvin Coolidge 382 54.1
1928 Herbert Hoover 444 58.0
1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt 472 57.3
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt 523 60.2
1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt 449 54.7
1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt 432 53.3
1948 Harry S. Truman 303 49.4
1952 Dwight D. Eisenhower 442 54.9
1956 Dwight D. Eisenhower 457 57.4
1960 John F. Kennedy 303 49.7
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson 486 51.1
1968 Richard M. Nixon 301 43.4
1972 Richard M. Nixon 520 60.7
1976 Jimmy Carter 297 50.0
1980 Ronald W. Reagan 489 50.4
1984 Ronald W. Reagan 525 58.8
1988 George H.W. Bush 426 53.4
1992 Bill Clinton 370 43.0
1996 Bill Clinton 379 49.2
2000 George W. Bush 271 47.9
2004 George W. Bush 286 50.7
2008 Barack Obama 365 52.9
2012 Barack Obama 332 50.9
2016 Donald Trump 304 46.0
2020 Joe Biden 306 51.3

Only three US Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).

US presidential election trends

  • Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
  • The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
  • A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in U.S. presidential election history.
  • James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.

2020 US Electoral map

This map visualizes the distribution of electoral votes for each state in the 2020 US Election. Republican wins are denoted by red states, while Democratic wins are represented by blue states. Explore the map to discover both popular vote and electoral vote figures by hovering over each state.

2020 voter turnout map

This interactive map provides insight into the voter turnout rates during the 2020 US Election. Hover over individual states to reveal precise percentage figures, with darker colors indicating higher voter turnout rates. Minnesota led all state with an impressive 80% turnout, while only 55% of eligible voters in Oklahoma showed up to the polls to cast a ballot.

2024 US presidential election key upcoming dates

Date Event
July 15-18, 2024 Republican National Convention
August 19-22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
November 5, 2024 Election Day

Betting on the election in the United States

No U.S. states allow for election betting, so legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans. 

Betting on the US election from Canada

Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the U.S. election. The top political betting sites on our list are permitted to offer election odds within the regulated Ontario sports betting marketplace, along with all other Canadian provinces. Additionally, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.

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