NBA Picks

Durant’s assists have dwindled over the past five games, sinking his passing prop to 3.5 O/U with the Under juiced heavily for Game 2 tonight. While projections vary, all of the models consulted come in above 3.5 assists and the majority call for four or more, with a ceiling of 5.2 dimes. My number sits at 4.8 assists from KD. Durant will draw his usual attention and his passing could help fellow Phoenix stud Devin Booker get going early on after a poor Game 1 effort.

Towns needed only 27 minutes and seven shots to score 19 points in the Game 1 blowout of Phoenix, picking up eight of those tallies from the foul line. He averages more than 15 field goal attempts per game, so expect KAT to be much more active on offense as the series tightens and his minutes to peak in Game 2. Player projections for Towns call for as many as 22-plus tonight with my number just shy of 19 points. This total is up to 18.5 points O/U at some books on Tuesday morning and given a number of models consulted are falling right in between those two totals, it's worth it to shop for the lower scoring bar.

Booker was limited to just 18 points on 5-16 shooting with a pair of three-pointers in Gm 1. Even during the regular season when he was filling up the hoop, Booker was streaky from beyond the arc. He knocked down fewer than 2.5 three-pointers made in 21 of his final 28 games during the regular season and had a mediocre 33.1 3PT% over that span. The T-Wolves have a terrific defense and they do an excellent job of defending the arc. They finished the regular season, sixth in the NBA in opponent three-point percentage (35.4%) and third in threes allowed per game (11.4).

In the second half of Game 1, the Indiana Pacers changed their coverages and blitzed Damian Lillard at every opportunity they could get. There was a clear goal to get the ball out of his hands and make someone else on the Bucks beat them. It didn't matter who it was; even Myles Turner was aggressively trapping Lillard in every pick-and-roll scenario and forcing a pass. And it worked, as Lillard scored 0 points in the second half compared to the first half. If the Pacers bring this same defensive game plan and energy that we saw in the second half against Lillard, the total of 30.5 points is way too high for Lillard.

Haliburton is coming off a quiet showing versus Milwaukee in Game 1, scoring only nine points on seven field goal attempts. After scoring only 94 points in the opener, the Pacers need their playmaker to take the reigns and put up buckets. Forecasts for Haliburton vary from 18.9 points to 22.5, with my number at 20.7 points. That’s more than enough to get Over the 18.5 points with this total ticking up as high as 19.5 O/U Over -105 at some books on Tuesday morning. Given my forecast, the Over 18.5 points should be price around -150, so shop for the lower total at FanDuel now.

Haliburton took just seven shots and scored nine points in Game 1. While he had four excellent performances against Milwaukee during the regular season all of those games came before the middle of January when he was on fire. Haliburton averaged 24.9 ppg on 17.7 FGA with 50/41/86 shooting splits throught the first 30 games. However, he sprained his hamstring on January 8 and hasn't looked the same since returning. In the final 35 games of the regular season he averaged 16.8 ppg on 13.6 FGA. Milwaukee's defensive gameplan was also a big reason that he struggled in Game 1 with the Bucks sending double-teams at the point guard, cutting off the rim and forcing him left. There's no reason for them to do anything different tonight

Not only was Harden’s 28 points in Game 1 his biggest scoring output since 29 points on March 4 but it tied as his third most shot attempts of the entire season. Before Game 1, Harden had topped 20 points only three times in the 17 games between those scoring outbursts and averaged 16.6 points on 11.4 field goal attempts and outing. Kawhi in or Kawahi out, it’s unlikely Harden will see the same volume of shots. Player projections for Harden bounce between 15.8 and 17.5 points, with my number coming out to 16.9 points. Some sharper operators have already moved the juice for Under 19.5 from -106 to -135 – another indication that the betting markets are leaning toward a Leonard return. You can still find u19.5 at -110 on Tuesday morning.

Irving finished with only four assists in Game 1, due in large part to the poor shooting from everyone not named Luka. Advanced stats show eight potential assists from Kyrie in that series opener and his player projections for Game 2 all call for more than the 4.5 O/U assist total. My number comes out to 5.2 dimes but some models have a ceiling flirting with six assists. The Clippers are throwing different coverages at Irving in an attempt to take the ball out of his hands, and Kyrie will need to get the rest of the Mavs going early on to avoid another poor-shooting scenario like Game 1. Given his forecast and the Over 4.5 assists paying plus-money, there's great value in five or more dimes from Dallas' star PG tonight. 

Washington pulled down seven boards in 37 minutes in Game 1 and he should another heavy workload tonight. Washington has grabbed 6+ rebounds in eight of his last 11 contests and one of the games where he went below that number was the meaningless season finale against Detroit where he played just 15 minutes. The forward has gotten plenty of burn for the Mavericks after they traded for him at the deadline. Since the start of March, Washington has averaged 6.5 rebounds in 32.7 minutes per game.