Cristiano Ronaldo looks to lift his second European Championship trophy in what will likely be his final appearance as he leads Portugal into their opening Euro 2024 match with Czechia.
The Portuguese are one of the favorites to win the tournament, and have a team loaded with talent both on the pitch and on the bench. They won the competition in 2016, and had the third-most goals of any nation in qualifying. Czechia will hope to ruin their plans and pick up a key result, as they look to advance as one of the best third-place teams.
My Portugal vs. Czechia predictions for Tuesday, June 18 break down the matchup and explain why my Euro 2024 picks see one-way traffic for A Selecao.
Portugal vs Czechia picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Portugal -1.5 (+142 at Betano)
My analysis
While it’s true the Czechia have lost just once in their last 14, they’ve also not faced a single team in the FIFA Top 20 rankings. In fact, the only teams they’ve played in the last 18 months that are taking part in Euro 2024 are Hungary, Poland, and Albania, and they recorded three draws and a defeat in those four outings.
The test they face on Tuesday is altogether different, and it’s one I expect them to fail. The Czech defense isn’t very good, if we’re being honest. I mean, if you can’t keep a clean sheet against the likes of Malta, North Macedonia, or Armenia then it’s hard to trust you. In fact, they’ve kept just four clean sheets in their last 15 matches despite playing some very overmatched sides.
So, the Portuguese players have to be licking their chops in anticipation of this fixture. A Selecao is stacked with talent at every level, starting with the likes of Ronaldo and Rafael Leao in attack. Add in the passing ability of Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva in midfield, and you have a team that can pick apart the best of defenses — and put lesser ones to the sword.
The Czechs like to press with a high line, and often man mark. That’s going to be problematic for them against Portugal. When Portugal has the ball their two attacking fullbacks like to tuck inside, and their attackers will interchange to create overloads and running lanes for teammates.
This is problematic for Czechia for two reasons. One, Portugal has numerous players who handle the press very well and are able to dribble or pass out of it. Secondly, they have outstanding technical players with pace who can attack on the dribble or without the ball and take advantage of the empty spaces behind that high line.
Portugal has won by multiple goals in seven of their last 10 matches, with the only exceptions being defeats to Croatia and Slovenia and a narrow win over Slovakia. They can attack in many ways from multiple angles, and they’re going to have opportunities to punish Czechia’s 3-4-2-1 setup. Look for them to win this one by two or more.
Cristiano Ronaldo odds, prop for today
My best bet
Cristiano Ronaldo to outscore opposition (+200 at Betano)
My analysis
At age 39, Ronaldo will make history when he steps on the pitch as the first player to ever participate in six European Championships. And if he can find the back of the net at some point, he will have scored in all six of those competitions.
Furthermore, if he can bag a goal against the Czechia, I believe he would win the match by himself. That’s why I like Betano’s price of +200 for him to outscore his opponents on Tuesday.
The prop market for Ronaldo is limited with shots not being offered at the moment, and most of his options are fairly juiced. That’s especially the case when you consider he’s not even a lock to start. Portugal has numerous options in attack, and Ronaldo offers nothing in the defensive area.
But despite having only the 17th-most touches per match of any Portuguese player in qualifying, he scored 10 goals in nine starts and attempted 46 shots — including an unheard of 12 shots in 66 minutes against Liechtenstein.
Ronaldo takes penalties for his national team, and is coming off a performance against Ireland where he scored twice. With limited options, this is the best player prop he has and is one that has a solid chance of coming through.
Portugal vs Czechia same-game parlay (SGP)
Portugal -1
Portugal Over 2.5 goals
Both teams to score - No
This match feels very one-sided, not just because of the players involved but because of how they match up tactically. Roberto Martinez has Portugal set up to win the ball back quickly and put pressure on opponents. That’s going to negate the Czech’s pressure, as Portugal will be able to put them on their back foot.
So much of what the Czechs do offensively relies on crossing the ball in and trying to win headers, but also in using one of their three center backs to push into midfield while their wingbacks play high up the pitch. Portugal has one of the world’s best defenders in Ruben Dias, and their forwards and wingbacks will help pin Czechia’s defenders and prevent them from getting into the positions they prefer.
In Euro qualifying, Czechia was picked apart when they weren’t able to employ their press. Albania beat them 3-0 and were dominating the match even before the Czechs had a player sent off. Portugal will do the same here, as they score 3+ without conceding.
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Portugal vs Czechia odds
| Portugal | Czechia | |
|---|---|---|
| -182 | Moneyline | +560 |
| Over 2.5 (-125) | Total | Under 2.5 (+102) |
| +340 | Draw | +340 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-15
Portugal vs Czechia game info
| Location: | Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig, Germany |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 18, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | 75F, POP 20%, Wind: 11mph |
Not intended for use in MA.
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