Poland went through hell in their Euro Cup qualifiers and while their form has improved massively in 2024 will that be enough to sway my Poland vs. Netherlands predictions given the recent injury to Robert Lewandowski?
Given the Euro 2024 odds ahead of this Group D fixture, my Euro 2024 picks believe Poland will be in over their head with or without their talisman.
Find out why as I break down as I break down this fixture for Sunday, June 16.
Poland vs Netherlands picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Netherlands -1.5 (+150 at Betano)
My analysis
Poland was the last team to reach the Euro 2024 group stage after beating Wales on penalties in a dramatic play-off match. The Poles had a terrible qualifying campaign which saw them win just one point over two games against minnows Moldova. They finished third in their preliminary round group, behind Albania and the Czech Republic. Poland owes its Euro 2024 qualification to the Nations League patch, which pushed them to another playoff. Victories over Estonia (5-1) and Wales (0-0, 5-4 on penalties) pushed them through at the last minute.
The Netherlands finished second in Group B, behind France, the only team that beat them in the qualifiers. France put six goals past the Dutch over two games. In the remaining six preliminary round clashes, the Netherlands only conceded one more goal, in Dublin, against Ireland. But that's it! Solid as a rock, with Liverpool's Virgil Van Dijk, Man City's Nathan Ake, and Bayern Munich's Matthijs de Ligt guaranteeing massive quality at the back.
Frenkie de Jong was ruled out of the tournament with injury and Dutch manager Ronald Koeman will surely miss the FC Barcelona midfield maestro. But Poland is also expected to start their Euro 2024 adventure without its biggest star.
Striker Robert Lewandowski left the pitch injured during Monday's friendly match against Türkiye. There's a slight chance Lewandowski will play, though as Warsaw media reports indicate that the injury might not be as serious as initially announced. It could all be part of a secret strategy from coach Michal Probierz, who reportedly plans to surprise the Netherlands.
Poland and the Netherlands have met on five occasions since 2016 with the Dutch winning four matches, with one ending as a draw. The Netherlands scored exactly two goals in four of those games.
Poland looked to gain momentum ahead of the 2024 Euros, beating both Ukraine (3-1) and Türkiye (2-1) in June friendlies, but against the Netherlands, the story should be different. The Dutch are the favorites in the group alongside France, but Austria too can play a big role in the chase for direct qualification to the Round of 16. A win in their match against Poland is vital for The Netherlands in its attempt to build a strong case ahead of the knock-out stages.
Poland's approach to the game will depend heavily on Robert Lewandowski's availability. The Barcelona striker netted 82 times in 148 games for the national team. Even though he's now a veteran at 35, his role for Poland is impossible to minimize. Even though he's not coming after his best of seasons at club level, Lewandowski remains the type of striker you shouldn't want to play against.
The Netherlands showed great form this month, beating both Canada and Iceland 4-0. They should be able to show the same appetite for offensive football against Poland if they are to be taken into consideration as one of this tournament's protagonists.
Memphis Depay odds, prop for today
My best bet
Anytime goal (+140 at Betano)
My analysis
Depay scored as The Netherlands beat Canada 4-0 in a friendly match played on June 6. He offers head coach Koeman viable tactical options. He can play either as a striker or on the wing while being equally threatening to his opponents.
Just like he did in a Nations League match played in November 2020, Depay will look to harm Poland once more. He is back to full fitness after some challenging months, so the Polish defense is expected to have a tough time handling him.
Poland vs Netherlands same-game parlay (SGP)
Netherlands moneyline
Memphis Depay anytime goal
Over 9.5 corners
This should not be an uneventful match. Not at all. With or without Lewandowski, Poland is a tough team and its players won't just be happy to sit behind the ball and wait for the Netherlands to dictate the game. The Dutch have superior quality so we can expect goals.
Depay didn't have the best of seasons with Atletico Madrid but that doesn't rule him off among the national team leaders. He'll want this to be his tournament to show that he can still compete at the highest level. At 30, he still has some good years left in him.
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Poland vs Netherlands odds
| Poland | Netherlands | |
|---|---|---|
| +600 | Moneyline | -189 |
| Over 2.5 (+102) | Total | Under 2.5 (-125) |
| +305 | Draw | +305 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-12
Poland vs Netherlands game info
| Location: | Volksparkstadion, Hamburg, Germany |
| Date: | Sunday, June 16, 2024 |
| Time: | 9:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Weather: | Partly cloudy but dry conditions. |
Not intended for use in MA.
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