Two NL Central teams trending in opposite directions begin a four-game set on Thursday as the Cincinnati Reds visit the St. Louis Cardinals.
Cincy has just three wins in its last 11, fading to fourth in the division. They are +114 underdogs in the MLB odds. St. Louis has reeled off 10 wins over its last 14 to move three games over .500.
I break down this matchup, with recent history saying the starting pitching could be blown up under a hail of hits, in my Reds vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks for June 27.
Reds vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off a 4-1 win over the Braves, winning two out of three. They have now won four of their last five series
Part of St. Louis’ recent surge has been the pitching improvement. Cardinals’ pitching has posted the fourth-best ERA over the last couple of weeks, a big jump from a staff that was already a respectable 12th.
They’re also inside the Top 8 in WHIP and opponent batting average, with teams hitting just .223 over this hot stretch.
Thursday’s starter Miles Mikolas has been a piece of that resurgence. He has picked up wins in three of his last four outings, and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of those starts. And while he’s yet to face the Cincinnati Reds this year, they sure did a number on him a couple of times last season.
Mikolas was pumped for five runs on seven hits in just 5 1/3 innings, including a pair of long balls in a 7-1 loss on Sept. 10. He also gave up seven hits and five earned runs in six innings of work on June 10, a game Cincinnati won 8-4.
The Reds are coming off a 6-1 loss to the Pirates on Wednesday in the rubber match of their 3-game set. They're up to four straight series losses.
Cincinnati’s pitching is leaking of late, as they are sporting a 5.33 ERA over the last week — a Bottom 10 figure in baseball. They have allowed five or more runs in four straight games. They’re hoping Andrew Abbott can turn it around for them.
After a sluggish 1-4 start to the year, the 25-year-old lefty has moved to 6-6 on the campaign, picking up wins in five of his last eight starts. He’s allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his past eight starts, but his one blip is to these Cardinals on May 28.
Abbott was crunched, giving up seven hits over six innings and surrendering six earned runs. That includes getting taken yard twice as the Cards beat up the Reds 7-1. He also got worked in a September start in 2023, chased after just four innings while surrendering six earned runs with three walks and one home run in an eventual 9-4 loss.
The recent history tab on both pitchers is enough for me to bet those runs keep piling up.
Reds vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Jonathan India Over 1.5 total bases
Willson Contreras 2+ hits
Jonathan India's total base Over is a good bet to drop into a SGP. He went 2-for-4 last game against the Pirates, giving him hits in eight straight games, and six of those are of the multi-hit variety.
India has plus-odds to pick up two total bases, and he’s been pretty potent against Mikolas, hitting .316 in 19 at-bats with three home runs.
Cards catcher Willson Contreras was held hitless against Atlanta on Wednesday, breaking his four-game hit streak. Still, he’s picked up hits in six of his last eight.
Hitting .333 against lefties this season, I’ll take a flier on him getting a couple of knocks off Abbott in this one.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Reds vs Cardinals odds
Reds vs Cardinals live odds
Reds vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 | St. Louis -1.5
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +121 | St. Louis -131
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Reds vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- St. Louis is 4-1 in its last five vs. Cincinnati.
- The Reds are winless in their last four as the underdog.
- The Under has hit in four straight matchups.
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Reds vs Cardinals trend
Each of the Cardinals' last 10 games against NL Central opponents have hit the Under. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Cardinals
Reds vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSOH, BSMW |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Andrew Abbott (6-6, 3.40 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Miles Mikolas (6-6, 4.68 ERA) |
Reds vs Cardinals latest injuries
Reds vs Cardinals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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