The second installment of this three-game NL Central series gets underway today with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a slight -120 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Cubs vs. Brewers prediction is optimistic on the underdog, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, June 29.
Cubs vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs hand the ball to left-hander Justin Steele, and he should be a good candidate to back. Steele boasts a 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP through 11 appearances on the mound this season.
His underlying metrics are equally strong, ranking in the 74th percentile in xERA, 66th percentile in xBA, and 67th percentile in barrel rate. This success is likely to continue against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team he has dominated throughout his career. Steele owns a commanding 2.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across 14 meetings.
While Chicago’s lineup is certainly not the strongest, it teed off against right-hander Tobias Myers, who gets the start for Milwaukee, the last time out. Myers surrendered four runs in just three innings of work in that outing, en route to a 6-5 loss. The Cubs posted a .273 BA, .818 SLG and .507 wOBA against him in the process.
I believe we will see a similar performance on Saturday as well. Myers ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity and barrel rate. He’s been outperforming these metrics recently, and regression is quickly looming.
Cubs vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Over 8.5
Christopher Morel Over 0.5 hits
This should be a high-scoring game. While I like the Cubs to jump Myers once again, Milwaukee will still be able to put runs of its own.
The Brewers rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. If we’re backing both a high-scoring game as well as a Cubs victory, then a highly-correlated outcome would be for Christopher Morel to record a hit in the process.
Morel homered off Myers in their previous meeting and has recorded at least one hit in seven of his past 11 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Brewers odds
Cubs vs Brewers live odds
Cubs vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-210) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Chicago +100 | Milwaukee -120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Cubs vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -120 favorite and remains at that price as of early Saturday morning.
- I don’t think we will see a line flip because of the Brewers’ lineup, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if this game closes at a pick ‘em due to the pitching matchup.
- The total opened at 8.5 and also remains at that price.
- I would be surprised if the total moves from this number, given the push-and-pull variables of Steele-versus-Milwaukee (strength versus strength) and Myers’ expected regression.
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Cubs vs Brewers trend
There have been nine or more total runs scored in nine of Milwaukee’s past 15 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers
Cubs vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (0-3, 3.08 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Tobias Myers (5-2, 3.12 ERA) |
Cubs vs Brewers latest injuries
Cubs vs Brewers weather
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