After dominating the first game in a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox, the San Diego Padres will look to lean on their talented bats once again for Game 2.
Despite losing 9-2 to San Diego on Friday, Boston is a -125 moneyline favorite at Fenway Park.
Find out where my best bets lie in our Padres vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks on Sunday, June 30.
Padres vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
At this point, NL Rookie of the Year is Paul Skenes’ award to lose. But if the Pittsburgh Pirates flamethrower trips up, San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill will be right there to swoop in and take the honor.
The 21-year-old has made the most of his first season in the majors. He ranks Top 4 in home runs (11), batting average (.282), SLG (.439), hits (79), and total bases (123) for San Diego this season, and he’s only getting better.
The 27th pick in the 2021 MLB Draft is slashing .287/.316/.596 in June with 13 extra-base hits in 26 games. For the month, he’s averaging 2.1 total bases per game and has had Over 1.5 in 12 of his last 21 outings.
That hot streak is poised to continue against Boston Red Sox righty Josh Winckowski. Merrill has been far more effective against right-handed pitchers this season, slashing .318/.355/.476 with 15 extra-base hits and 90 total bases.
He’s also absolutely cooking Winckowski’s go-to pitches. The Red Sox’s starter leans heavily on just two offerings, his cutter (37% of the time) and his sinker (32.8%).
Those are the two pitches that Merrill has hit the most consistently this season with a .346 average and .462 SLG against cutters and a .360 average and .600 SLG against sinkers. Sixteen of his 23 extra-base hits have come against fastballs this year.
The only two other pitches Winckowski really uses are his slider (14.6%) and changeup (13.8%), but those shouldn’t scare Merrill backers either. He’s batting over .290 with a better than .440 SLG against both.
Padres vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 total bases
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 total bases
Jarren Duran Over 0.5 total bases
Merrill isn’t the only Padre in position to take Winckowski to task. All-Star Luis Arraez has destroyed righties this season with a .342 average against them, and he’s had no problems against Winckowski’s top pitches.
There’s not a pitch Arraez is hitting with more power than cutters this season, putting up a .513 SLG to go with a .333 average. And the sinker hasn’t been an issue at all for him with a .329 average.
With Merrill and Arraez set to do damage, the Red Sox will need Jarren Duran to keep up his pace. He’s been an unstoppable force in June, slashing .366/.420/.594 with 60 total bases in 23 games.
While Padres starter Matt Waldron is a knuckleball pitcher — a pitch Duran hasn’t dealt with — two of his other pitches are among Duran’s favorites. Waldron uses a four-seamer (22.1%) and sinker (14.4%), and Duran has a better than .510 SLG against both.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Red Sox odds
Padres vs Red Sox live odds
Padres vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 | Boston -1.5
- Moneyline: San Diego +104 | Boston -113
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Padres vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Following the 9-2 loss, the Red Sox opened as a -113 to -121 moneyline favorite. The line has since shifted further in their direction with Boston -123 to -133.
- The Red Sox sit third in the AL East at 43-38 while the Padres are second in the NL West with a 45-41 record.
- The Over/Under opened at 9.5 with some books coming up to 10. The Under 9.5 can be had for even or plus-money.
- San Diego is one of the best Over teams in the MLB this season at 47-39-1 and Boston isn’t far behind at 39-37-6.
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Padres vs Red Sox trend
The Padres have hit the moneyline in nine of their last 11 games (+7.85 Units / 56% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Red Sox
Padres vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, 6-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, NESN |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Matt Waldron (5-6, 3.43 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Josh Winckowski (1-1, 3.26 ERA) |
Padres vs Red Sox latest injuries
Padres vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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