The first installment of this four-game NL series gets underway today with the Colorado Rockies hosting the Milwaukee Brewers at Coors Field. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a sizable -164 favorite, while the total sits at 11.5.
My Brewers vs. Rockies prediction is bullish on the Over, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, July 1.
Brewers vs Rockies prediction
My best bet
Over 11.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Right-hander Bryse Wilson takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he is due for some significant regression. Despite posting some solid surface-level stats this season, Wilson possesses a 4.65 xERA and ranks in the 35th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
However, the right-hander should receive plenty of run support as Milwaukee ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and stolen bases. That success is likely to continue against left-hander Austin Gomber, who is slated to get the ball for the Colorado Rockies.
This current Brewers lineup boasts a .354 xBA, .541 xSLG ,and .421 xwOBA through 18 combined career plate appearances against Gomber. The southpaw has also gone through his own tribulations this season.
Through 15 starts, Gomber is 1-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Further regression is likely, given that he sports a 4.87 xERA and ranks in the 24th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, and barrel rate.
We have already seen this further regression start to kick in, given that Gomber has surrendered four or more runs in each of his past four starts. He is 0-2 over that stretch with a fade-worthy 9.45 ERA and 1.70 WHIP.
Following Gomber is one of the worst relief staffs in baseball. Colorado’s bullpen ranks last in ERA, 29th in FIP, and last in xFIP.
Brewers vs Rockies same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 11.5
Brewers moneyline
Christian Yelich Over 0.5 hits
Milwaukee should take care of business as the betting favorite. It possesses every advantage on both sides of the ball.
Wilson outranks Gomber in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ bullpen outranks Colorado's in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
If we are backing both a high-scoring game as well as a Brewers victory, then a highly correlated outcome would be for Christian Yelich to record a hit in the process.
Yelich boasts a .329 xBA and .389 xSLG through nine career plate appearances against Gomber and has recorded at least one hit in 15 of his past 18 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Rockies odds
Brewers vs Rockies live odds
Brewers vs Rockies opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee -1.5 (-105) | Colorado +1.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -174 | Colorado +146
- Over/Under: Over 11.5 (-110) | Under 11.5 (-110)
Brewers vs Rockies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -174 favorite, which has since been bet down to -164.
- This line movement is likely based on Wilson’s expected regression, but I don’t think that outweighs Gomber’s woes this season.
- The total opened at 11.5 and remains there at the time of writing.
- This is a huge number, but it makes sense given all the aforementioned variables plus the high-altitude factor of Coors Field.
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Brewers vs Rockies trend
There have been 12 or more total runs scored in 11 of Colorado’s past 18 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Rockies
Brewers vs Rockies game info
| Location: | Coors Field, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Monday, 7-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, COLR |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Bryse Wilson (5-3, 3.89 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher: | Austin Gomber (1-5, 4.63 ERA) |
Brewers vs Rockies latest injuries
Brewers vs Rockies weather
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