Two teams in the thick of the NL Wild Card chase play the second game of their three-game set when the San Francisco Giants take on the Atlanta Braves tonight.
San Francisco moved to within 2.5 games of Atlanta with a 5-3 win on Tuesday, but the Braves are -205 home favorites this Wednesday.
That likely has to do with the distinct starting pitching advantage for Atlanta, as I explain in my Giants vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for July 3.
Giants vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Braves -1.5 (+102 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The San Francisco Giants are currently playing a better brand of ball between these two teams, having taken three of four from the Cubs and two of three from the Dodgers before beating the Atlanta Braves in the opener. However, San Francisco is running into Atlanta’s top pitcher so far this season in veteran lefty Chris Sale tonight.
Sale's steady work on the mound has helped the Braves find their footing while they battled through a series of injuries. At 10-3, he’s tied for the second-most wins in the bigs while posting a 2.79 ERA (11th), ranking sixth in strikeouts, and second in WHIP at 0.92.
He’s gone 7-2 in his last 10 starts and has surrendered one or fewer earned runs in seven of those appearances.
Sale took the L in his last outing despite turning in one of his best performances of the year. He scattered four hits across seven innings, giving up one earned run while striking out a season-best 11 in an eventual 1-0 loss to the White Sox.
The Giants will counter with Jordan Hicks, who's in the midst of converting from a closer with both the Blue Jays and Cardinals to starter with 'Frisco. He’s 4-4 on the year with a 3.36 ERA. Hicks has only made it past the fifth inning three times in 17 appearances this season.
It’s not been pretty in his last two starts, as the G-Men dropped both while Hicks gave up 11 hits and eight earned runs, including three home runs in nine innings of work.
Even if the Braves are in the bottom half of the league in runs scored and outside the Top 10 in all the hitting categories, Atlanta should be able to plate enough runs to support Sale.
Because there isn’t great juice on the moneyline, consider the runline, as these teams have been separated by two or more runs in seven of the last nine meetings. All but one of Atlanta’s last five wins against the Giants was by at least two runs.
Giants vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves -1.5
Chris Sale Over 7.5 strikeouts
Heliot Ramos Over 0.5 hits
Let’s stick with Sale as we build out our SGP for this one. He’s been pegged with an attainable 7.5-strikeout line against the Giants, and he’s been all around that number recently.
In his last 10 starts, Sale has recorded at least eight punchouts in eight of them, with another start coming in just one strikeout short of cashing the Over. Only three Giants have even had at-bats against him, which should probably be advantage Sale.
One guy who might be able to succeed against him, though, is Heliot Ramos. He homered in the last game, giving him six hits in his last three games.
Ramos is feasting on left-handed pitching, hitting .426 in 47 at-bats on the season, with six doubles and five home runs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Braves odds
Giants vs Braves live odds
Giants vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 | Atlanta -1.5
- Moneyline: San Francisco +185 | Atlanta -204
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Giants vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- At 26-15, Atlanta has the third-most home wins in the NL.
- The Under is 6-3-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- The Under is 5-0-1 in Atlanta’s last six games.
Giants vs Braves trend
San Francisco has lost eight of its last nine road games against National League teams with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Braves
Giants vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports South |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Jordan Hicks (4-4, 3.36 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (10-3, 2.79 ERA) |
Giants vs Braves latest injuries
Giants vs Braves weather
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