The Toronto Argonauts head to Mosaic Stadium to face the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Thursday night.
Saskatchewan will be missing quarterback Trevor Harris but my Argonauts vs. Roughriders predictions for this Week 5 clash are focusing on the other side of the ball.
Read on for my favorite CFL picks for Thursday, July 4.
Argonauts vs Roughriders prediction
My best bet
Argonauts team total Over 25.5 (-115 at Bet99) play up to 26.5
My analysis
The Saskatchewan Roughriders are 3-0 straight up and against the spread to begin the year thanks to a high-scoring offense. However, quarterback Trevor Harris is now on the six-game IL and their offense tanked when he went down with an injury last year.
The Riders are better equipped to deal with Harris' absence this year with better weapons and a talented backup QB in Shea Patterson. That said, Patterson completed just 4 of 10 passes for 41 yards when he replaced Harris in Week 3, and with his lack of experience at this level, there's no telling what we're going to get out of this offense.
So, let's instead focus on the other side of the ball where we know Saskatchewan stinks. The Riders allowed a whopping 34.2 points and 325.5 passing yards per game during the second half of last season. They're allowing 337 yards per game through the air this year and have been fortunate that all three of their opponents struggled with turnovers or they would've given up a lot more points.
They'll have a tough time slowing down a Toronto Argonauts offense that's been getting the job done with Cameron Dukes at QB. Dukes doesn't have Chad Kelly's arm strength but he's accurate and a solid decision-maker. It also helps that the Argos have the league's best offensive line, a stud running back in Ka'Deem Carey, and a solid receiving corps.
The Argos were limited to 20 points last week but that was against an elite Alouettes defense and they still threw for 278 yards while adding another 103 yards on the ground. As long as they take care of the ball and cut down on penalties, they'll eclipse their team total on Thursday.
Argonauts vs Roughriders same-game parlay (SGP)
Argonauts TT Over 26.5
Jerreth Sterns Over 4.5 receptions
Damonte Coxie Over 45.5 receiving yards
Patterson hasn't taken many snaps in the CFL but he's as talented as any QB in the league. This is a guy who was a five-star recruit coming out of high school and a two-time third-team All-Big Ten selection at Michigan. While there will likely be a drop-off from Harris to Patterson, it might not be as steep as many think.
That has me parlaying the Over 4.5 receptions for Jerreth Sterns, who leads the Riders in catches (17) and targets (24). Toronto's strong pass rush should force Patterson into shorter throws to Sterns in the slot and he should see even more targets with Shawn Bane out with an injury.
Damonte Coxie began the year on the injured list but racked up 58 yards in his season debut in Week 3. While he was limited to 38 yards against Montreal last week, he still hauled in four catches on a team-high seven targets. If he gets a similar number of looks against a significantly worse Saskatchewan secondary, he'll easily eclipse this number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Argonauts vs Roughriders odds
Argonauts vs Roughriders live odds
Argonauts vs Roughriders opening odds
- Spread: Toronto -3 (-115) | Saskatchewan +3 (-105)
- Moneyline: Toronto -185 | Saskatchewan +150
- Over/Under: Over 48 (-110) | Under 48 (-110)
Argonauts vs Roughriders spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Riders are 3-0 but they needed fourth-quarter comebacks to win two of those games and have only played the Ticats and Elks, who are a combined 0-8.
- The Argos are coming off a 30-20 loss to the defending Grey Cup champion Alouettes, which dropped their record to 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS.
- Toronto's defense is last in the CFL in passing yards allowed per game (346) and opponent pass efficiency rating (119.4).
- This is an interesting schedule spot for the Argos, who are playing their first road game of the year and will be facing a Riders squad fresh off a bye.
Argonauts vs Roughriders trend
The Over has gone an incredible 13-1 in Saskatchewan's last 14 games while going 6-1 in Toronto's previous seven contests. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs Roughriders.
Redblacks vs Blue Bombers game info
| Location: | Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-4-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Roughriders key injuries
Argonauts: Quincy Mauger DB (Out), Dejon Brisset WR (Out), Tunde Adeleke DB (Out), Folarin Orimolade DE (Out), David Ungerer III WR (Out), Darius Ciraco OL (Out).
Roughriders: Trevor Harris QB (Out), Shawn Bane Jr. WR (Out), Adam Auclair SLB (Out), Philip Blake OL (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Argonauts vs Roughriders weather
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