Today’s MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Abrams Squares Up Mets' Scott

Prop bet #1: Hooray for CJ

CJ Abrams has parlayed a hot June into a good start in July as the Washinton Nationals shortstop has remained one of the better hitters in baseball. 

The ball must look like the size of a grapefruit to the 23-year-old playing in just his third big-league season. Abrams is hitting .393 with a 1.061 OPS over 21 games since June 5, which includes 10 doubles, a triple, and four home runs.

All those extra-base hits have made Abrams a total bases machine during this period. The Nats emerging star has topped 1.5 total bases 15 times over those 21 games and I like his chances to stay hot when he digs into the batter’s box against New York Mets starter Christian Scott.

The 25-year-old has been solid through his first five big-league starts, pitching to a 3.90 ERA. However, Scott doesn’t have overpowering or swing-and-miss stuff, ranking around league average in strikeout, whiff, and barrel rates. 

He also relies a lot on his four-seam fastball, throwing it more than 50% of the time. Abrams has a .380 average and a .704 slugging percentage vs. fastballs this season.

While Abrams’ total bases prop is down to around even money, there is still value in the Over with this matchup and at this price.

CJ Abrams prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Imanaga continues to stumble

Shota Imanaga has been outstanding for the Chicago Cubs this season and was the favorite to win National League Rookie of the Year for a while before that freak Paul Skenes showed up. 

But just because Imanga’s been good doesn’t mean he's immune to slumps and you don’t want to be slumping when the NL’s best team comes to town. That’s the scenario he’s in as he takes the ball against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight.

Imanaga enters this game with a solid 3.48 expected ERA, but he’s been showing some cracks lately. He's allowed 13 earned runs over his last two starts and has given up a .284 batting average over his last nine, surrendering seven or more hits five times during that period.

Giving up a lot of hits probably won’t work against this dangerous Phillies lineup. Only the Dodgers have scored more runs in the NL this season, and they have been very productive against southpaws. Philly ranks seventh in batting average, eighth in OPS, and seventh in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season.

Those things have me looking at the Under for Imanaga’s outs-recorded prop. It’s on the board at 17.5, a number he flew over many times in the first quarter of the season. But the slump has changed that. He’s landed below that number four times in his last eight starts. 

The other thing to note is that Imanaga doesn’t have a huge leash. He averages just over 86 pitches per start and has thrown more than 100 just twice. 

This matchup and price has me more than happy to fire on the Under here.

Shota Imanaga prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+155 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: He's the McMahon

It’s another year for the Colorado Rockies where the best thing about heading to Coors Field is the fresh air and beautiful view. 

The Rockies enter tonight’s game against the National League Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers with the NL’s worst record (29-56) and run differential (-142) and things could get worse as the trade deadline approaches and the team could move its best assets. 

One of those assets whose name has popped up in trade rumors is third baseman Ryan McMahon. Losing McMahon would be a tough pill to swallow for Rockies faithful as he’s been one of their most productive hitters and is signed to a team-friendly deal.

The lefty slugger is hitting .269 with a .805 OPS, 14 home runs, and 43 WBI and while he can be a streaky hitter, I like his chances to have a productive night at the plate. 

That’s in large part because of the matchup against Brewers starter Colin Rea. The veteran right-hander has posted a good ERA this season (3.61) a big regression could be on the horizon. Rea is pitching to a 5.31 expected ERA while surrendering a .285 expected batting average to opponents over 16 games (14 starts) this season.  

Not surprisingly, left-handed batters are doing most of the damage, getting to Rea for a .253 average and .803 OPS. 

All of that considered I love the odds for McMahon to drive in a run tonight. Plus, our Covers Prop Projections have it listed as a five-star play at this price.

Ryan McMahon prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+135 at bet365)