The Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Los Angeles Dodgers for a three-game series that begins tonight.
Starting pitchers Ryne Nelson and Bobby Miller haven’t been at the top of their respective games, but my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers predictions explain why that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re in for a boatload of runs.
I take a closer look at both arms in my MLB picks for July 2.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers have dealt with numerous starting pitching injuries. Youngster Bobby Miller returned to the fold on June 19 to bolster the rotation but has been tagged for eight earned runs in just 8 1/3 IP as he looks to find his footing.
Miller’s talent is undeniable, and he should return to form sooner rather than later. His xFIP of 4.01 is still fine, so I’m not overreacting to a small sample size ERA of 6.75 through five starts. The boat bullish projection system (ATC DC) still paints him with a 3.76 ERA and 3.61 FIP.
On the other side, the Arizona Diamondbacks will trot out Ryne Nelson and his gruesome 5.69 ERA. Despite that hideous number, I don’t think Nelson is quite as much of a pinata as he initially seems.
His 5.17 xERA, 4.45 FIP, and 4.66 FIP aren’t out of this world, but they're all certainly easier to stomach. The RHP has found success against the Dodgers with a 2-0 record and a 1.59 ERA in three appearances. Back on May 22, he fired five scoreless innings against Big Blue while allowing five knocks and notching five Ks.
The 26-year-old has some notable splits, finding far more effectiveness on the road (4.64 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) than at home (6.69 ERA, 1.74 WHIP). That’s a continuation of what we’ve seen throughout his career — his 4.49 FIP and 1.15 WHIP through 114 2/3 IP on the road is much more palatable than his 5.15 FIP and 1.75 WHIP in 115 2/3 frames at home.
If Nelson struggles despite his splits, Arizona’s bullpen will be fully rested after a day off on Tuesday. The same can be said for L.A.’s bullpen, which has the second-best ERA (3.02) and WHIP (1.07).
Some books have moved from 8.5 to 9.0, while many others are offering plus money on the Under at 8.5. I’ll snap up the plus money but would buy at 9.0 for reduced juice as well as it’s likely this price rises throughout the day due to public perception.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9
Dodgers -1.5
Bobby Miller 6+ strikeouts
This SGP required a bit of a leap of faith in Miller. He’s still a bit of an unknown at this point in the season, but he has enough talent I’d rather arrive early to the party than late.
The Dodgers have the better lineup and the much better bullpen, so if Miller pitches better than Nelson — as previous history would suggest he should — this run line price will look like a gift.
We’re getting plus money on Miller’s strikeout prop for a reason, as Arizona avoids punchouts with a 16.7% K rate against RHP across the last 15 days. Still, Miller has a 24.1% K rate and struck out 11 batters against the Cardinals in his lone full start before getting injured, so we know what he’s capable of when at his best.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers live odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-130) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+110)
- Moneyline: Arizona +160 | Los Angeles -190
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-125) | Under 8.5 (+105)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Arizona has played well against the Dodgers lately, winning six of the last nine meetings. All six wins came as the underdog, while the Under cashed in four of them.
- Arizona has trended toward the Under on the road, going 1-5 O/U in its last six road games. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 3-9 O/U in their last 12 home games.
- The Dodgers have hit their team total Under in 13 of their last 17 home games.
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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers trend
Arizona is 2-5 O/U in Nelson’s last seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Ryne Nelson (5-6, 5.69 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Bobby Miller (1-1, 6.75 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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