The Philadelphia Phillies can sweep the Chicago Cubs today despite dealing with several key injuries.
The MLB odds have Philly as a -135 moneyline favorite coming off a 5-3 win, and my Phillies vs. Cubs predictions like one of the healthy bats to play a big role this afternoon.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks predictions on Thursday, July 4.
Phillies vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
When the Philadelphia Phillies lost both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber to injuries last week, it looked like their reign as the best team in baseball may come to an end. Those two have been mashing this season with 37 home runs and 107 RBI between them while sitting first and third on the team in total bases, respectively.
But thanks to Alec Bohm quietly turning into a Silver Slugger-caliber bat this season, Philadelphia has managed to go 4-1 in its five games without its star sluggers.
The 27-year-old is averaging 1.9 total bases per game and leads the majors in doubles (28) and the NL in RBI (70). Since the beginning of June, he’s put up 55 total bases in 27 games with six home runs, including one on Wednesday against the Chicago Cubs.
Chicago hasn’t had any answer for Bohm with him showcasing his power through two games, which should continue against Cubs’ starter Jameson Taillon.
Taillon has given up a home run in three straight games and his pitching arsenal doesn’t match up well with Bohm. The 32-year-old righty goes to four pitches more than 15% of the time, with his four-seamer (34.2%), cutter (23.2%), curveball (18.2%), and sweeper (15.5%) as his preferred offerings.
Bohm has been cranking four-seamers — .352 average and .549 SLG — and curveballs — .333 and .750 — this season. And he’s been productive against both cutters and sweepers with a .585 xSLG against cutters and a .345 average against sweepers.
To make this bet even sweeter, Bohm’s been especially productive against righties like Taillon, slashing .326/.381/.523 vs. RHP with 28 extra-base hits this season.
With the way Bohm’s been hitting bombs, Philadelphia isn’t even missing Harper.
Phillies vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 total bases
Trea Turner 1+ hits
Cristopher Sanchez Over 17.5 outs
Trea Turner has been assisting Bohm in helping Phillies fans forget they just lost their top MVP candidate to an injury. The two-time All-Star is slashing a ridiculous .342/.388/.487 this season and has exposed the Cubs by going 5-for-9 with two dingers in two games.
He’s positioned to keep making noise against Taillon thanks to his success against the Cubs’ starter’s go-to pitches. He’s batting .571 against cutters and .333 against sweepers with a .578 xSLG against four-seamers.
While Bohm and Turner will provide run support, Philadelphia starter Cristopher Sanchez should be able to make it at least six innings for the fourth straight game and sixth time in seven starts. Chicago ranks at the bottom in most batting stats and has the sixth-most strikeouts in the majors.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Cubs odds
Phillies vs Cubs live odds
Phillies vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+130) | Chicago +1.5 (-155)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -135 | Chicago +115
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Phillies vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies opened as a -120 to -140 moneyline favorite. Most books are now offering them between -130 and -140.
- Philadelphia has the best record in MLB at 57-29 while Chicago has been one of the worst teams at 39-48.
- The Over/Under opened at just 7.5 and remains there.
- The Phillies are just 38-43-5 betting the Over this season and the Cubs are right there with them at 38-45-4.
Phillies vs Cubs trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the team total Over in 44 of their last 69 games (+15.25 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Cubs
Phillies vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-PHI, Marquee |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (6-3, 2.41 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (4-4, 3.03 ERA) |
Phillies vs Cubs latest injuries
Phillies vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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