Fireworks, hot dogs, and baseball. Celebrate your Fourth of July in style and wind down with a nightcap featuring the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers.
I've taken a closer look at both lineups and my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers predictions have determined that those fireworks at the plate will be few and far between.
See which side of the total I’m betting on in my MLB picks on Thursday, July 4.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Zac Gallen returned to the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation last Saturday and was superb, allowing a single hit and no runs while notching seven strikeouts in six innings against the Oakland Athletics. He’ll look for another solid outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers, against whom he has a 3.48 ERA in 11 career starts.
Wednesday’s Game 2 was a microcosm of the Dodgers’ current lineup situation. Without Mookie Betts, they’re more top-heavy than ever with a few stars at the top of the order and many soft-hitting placeholders in the 5-9 spots. That was evident when they plated four runs after the first four batters on Wednesday before ultimately succumbing 12-4, failing to score another run after that.
Dave Roberts will send out rookie Landon Knack. The 26-year-old has been very effective with a pristine 2.08 ERA through his first six starts.
While that level of dominance is unlikely to continue, he’s found great success since the beginning of 2023. After sporting a beautiful 2.20 ERA at Double-A and a 2.93 ERA at Triple-A, he impressed yet again to start 2024 with a 3.54 ERA across 10 appearances in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
The Diamondbacks haven’t been a scary lineup for much of the year. They have decent but unspectacular numbers (102 wRC+ and .313 wOBA) against RHP on the whole and those numbers take a slight dip on the road (97 wRC+ and .305 wOBA).
L.A.’s bullpen was tagged for eight runs on Wednesday but a repeat performance is unlikely as they have great overall numbers with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.
If you’re expecting fireworks at Chavez Ravine, consider that three of the Dodgers’ last four games on the Fourth of July have resulted in fewer than 8.5 total runs. I’m betting on a low-scoring Game 3 to conclude Independence Day.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Will Smith Over 1.5 total bases
Gavin Lux Under 0.5 hits
Since this is a divisional matchup, we have a decent amount of batter vs. pitcher matchups to look through. Two stood out against Gallen for very different reasons — Will Smith crushes the ball against him and Gavin Lux can't do a thing.
Smith is 6-for-16 with three RBI and a walk in his career against Gallen, good for a .974 OPS. He’s scored a run in three straight games while going 5-for-14 with two doubles, so he’s in fine form.
Lux has collected just a single hit in 11 career plate appearances against Gallen, managing to strike out four times. Gallen has reverse splits and is more effective against left-handed hitters with a microscopic .214 BA and 1.09 WHIP in his career.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers live odds
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-170) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Arizona +120 | Los Angeles -140
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers are 10-2 in their last 12 games following a loss, covering the run line in nine of those victories.
- Despite Gallen’s solid numbers against the Dodgers in his career, he’s notched just one win in 11 tries.
- The Dodgers have hit their team total Under in 22 of their last 33 games at home.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers trend
The Diamondbacks have cashed the Under in three straight games in which Gallen has been the starting pitcher. The Dodgers have also trended toward the Under (2-4 O/U) when Knack is on the bump. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, SportsNet LA |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Zac Gallen (6-4, 2.83 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Landon Knack (1-1, 2.08 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers weather
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