Today’s MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Abrams Adds to Solid Season for Nats

Prop bet #1: Vlad drives 'Stros mad

When Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets hot, there aren’t many players in baseball that mash like the Toronto Blue Jays’ star first baseman, and right now Vladdy is hotter than a Canada Day fireworks show.

Guerrero has been tearing the cover off the ball for basically two months now. He’s hitting .342 with a .961 OPS over 49 games since May 5. But while the three-time All-Star has been having productive at-bats for a while now, many wondered where the power was because the Jays’ slugger had just seven dingers up until a couple of weeks ago.

Wonder no more. Vladdy has been launching baseballs into the stratosphere like he’s preparing to defend his Home Run Derby crown. Guerrero has gone yard six times in the last nine games while hitting .436 with a 1.476 OPS and a whopping 20 runs batted in.

Yet, we are still getting a very good price for Vladdy to drive in another run when he digs into the box on Canada Day against the visiting Houston Astros.

That’s likely because the Astros had the ball to Hunter Brown, who has turned his season around thanks to allowing just one earned run over his last four starts. But when you look at his opponents, some of the shine is taken off those results, as the right-hander faced the Angels, Tigers, White Sox, and Rockies over that stretch. His ERA before that was 6.18 with a 5.04 FIP.

Right-handed batters have done most of the damage against Brown this season, getting to him for a .268 average and a .754 OPS.

Vladdy has driven in at least one run in seven of his last nine games and at this price he’s a five-star play per our Covers Prop Projections to drive in another one on Canada Day.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+165 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Abrams punishes Peterson

With the Mid-Summer Classic quickly approaching, I keep thinking the Washington Nationals have a future star in shortstop CJ Abrams.

The 23-year-old was a part of the return in the Juan Soto deal, and it’s generally hard to get back good value when you trade away someone like Soto, but Abrams might be worth it when all is said and done.

Abrams enters today’s game vs. the New York Mets hitting .283 with an .858 OPS and he’s probably a little unhappy June has come to a close. He spent the final 15 games of the month hitting a ridiculous .455 with a 1.309 OPS, including eight doubles and three dingers.

All those extra bases made Abrams a total bases machine, going Over 1.5 nine times during this 15-game period. That said, we are still looking at +160 for the Over in this matchup against the Mets.

My only explanation for this is that starting pitcher David Peterson has the lefty-lefty split advantage. At least on paper. 

Peterson is making just his sixth start of the season thanks to a hip surgery in the offseason and a quick look at his 3.67 ERA and you might think he’s done pretty well. But in reality he’s been a little lucky that his opponents haven’t taken advantage of his control issues.

Peterson has a 6.12 expected ERA and a .296 expected batting average through his first five starts, both of which rank in the Bottom 3% of MLB pitchers, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio would be second-worst in baseball among qualified starters. So, a regression could be in store for the Mets’ southpaw.

On top of that, Abrams has actually hit lefties better this season, getting to them for a .318 average and a .889 OPS. So, all that lefty split is doing is giving us more value.

CJ Abrams prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+160 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Free pass for Yelich

The nightcap for the MLB’s uber-light trio of games this Canada Day features the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers visiting the NL West basement-dwelling Colorado Rockies.

The Brewers have built a 6.5-game lead in their division thanks to a surprisingly potent lineup, and that lineup includes the resurgent Christian Yelich. The former MVP enters tonight’s matchup hitting .321 with an .885 OPS.

Yelich is also a moneyball maven because he gets on base with a nearly .400 on-base percentage. That’s thanks in large part to his 11.2% walk rate, which ranks in the 85th percentile among MLB batters. I like his odds to draw a walk tonight against Rockies starter Austin Gomber.

Gomber is going through the motions this season for the Rockies, who have the fewest wins and worst run differential in the NL. Gomber is pitching to  4.87 expected ERA, which ranks in the 17th percentile. But it’s the Rockies, so they’re letting him grind out innings.

While Gomber has an above-average walk rate, those added innings mean more walks. On top of that, it’s felt like it’s been all or nothing when it comes to the lefty's command. He has nine starts this season with multiple walks and four with zero.

When Gomber does give up the ball, it will be to a bullpen with the third-highest walk rate in baseball. 

Yelich has walked in six of his last 11 games, and at this price I’m more than willing to back him to do it again. 

Christain Yelich prop: Over 0.5 walks (+170 at bet365)