The Baltimore Orioles may be riding high at the moment with four wins in their last five contests, but they’ve hit a bit of a wall offensively over the past two games and will be behind the proverbial eight ball with Dean Kremer taking the ball against the Seattle Mariners.
Seattle's offense remains in a rut, but my Orioles vs. Mariners predictions expect them to put up enough runs to secure the win. Find out why in my MLB picks for this July 3 affair.
Orioles vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Mariners moneyline (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I’ll admit it, Dean Kremer is one of my least-favorite pitchers in baseball.
The righty pitches to a large complement of fly balls, which generally is not good — especially when you pitch in Baltimore — and it’s even worse when you can’t generate strikeouts or limit walks and hard contact.
These are all issues Kremer faces, and though he’ll enter a park which will help him out in a big way, it’s pretty hard to look past the fact he doesn’t have consistent strikeout ability. His whiff rate has come down with each of his last two starts as he tries to throw his fastball more, and that’s led to an even larger rise in his xBA.
The Seattle Mariners are about as bad as it gets at the dish, so it’s hard to find many reasons to believe here, but I’m looking to Kremer’s hefty .260 xBA and .503 xSLG as reasons for optimism.
On the flip side, I think we get more of the same from this Baltimore Orioles offense, which is to say they won’t be hitting the ball overly well.
Baltimore struggled the last time it played in a park this unkind to fly-ball teams when it mustered up eight runs in three games at Busch Stadium, and T-Mobile Park is proving to be a tough one to hit in.
Logan Gilbert has been excellent in pitching to this ballpark’s strengths over the years and once again owns great numbers at home with a 2.70 ERA in eight starts. He should have a great opportunity ahead of him, considering Baltimore’s been all about power, and he’s owned a solid .337 SLG inside this park with a low .184 average against him.
I just can’t back Kremer at this price, even against arguably the worst offense in the league.
Orioles vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Mariners moneyline
J.P Crawford to record a hit
Deam Kremer Over 5.5 strikeouts
This is a tricky game to concoct a parlay for as this one should still be low scoring, even if I have little faith in one of the pitchers.
With that, we won’t go all out in our pursuit to fade Kremer as you may see above, but I’d like to back at least one of these Seattle bats in J.P. Crawford. The veteran owns the best average of anyone in the lineup against fly-ball pitchers, hitting .272 in 103 at bats, and he’s also looked a heck of a lot better of late in hitting .250 over the last 13 games.
It’s hard to play total bases here given I'm not expecting any home runs or even extra-base hits, so I got adventurous to spruce up the odds. That leads me to Kremer’s strikeout total, which I still feel to be too low even for a guy who hasn’t been a swing-and-miss merchant.
The Mariners are the worst in the league when it comes to striking out, and even though Kremer found just two punchouts last start against the Cardinals, he did pile up 16 in his first two May outings prior to his eventual demotion following that game. He’s hit this mark in four of his nine starts and will have a dream matchup for Ks.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Mariners odds
Orioles vs Mariners live odds
Orioles vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-225) | Seattle -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -105 | Seattle -115
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+110) | Under 7.5 (-140)
Orioles vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mariners have been getting love from bettors, opening as underdogs at around even money before being pushed all the way out past -120 on the moneyline.
- The total opened up at 7.5 runs, but the stay there was ever so brief. The line has come down to seven runs with movement towards the Under.
- A hefty 68% of the bets made on the moneyline over at DraftKings are on the Orioles, with 65% of the cash.
- The Over has accounted for 78% of the tickets and 93% of the handle.
Orioles vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the moneyline in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+12.70 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Mariners
Orioles vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN 2, ROOT Northwest |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Dean Kremer (3-4, 4.32 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (5-4, 2.72 ERA) |
Orioles vs Mariners latest injuries
Orioles vs Mariners weather
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