We're at the midway point of the 2024 MLB season which means we have a large enough sample size to see which breakout players are for real. I'm sold on both Tanner Houck and Tyler Glasnow which is why I'm backing them on their player props this Saturday. I'm also betting on Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez with my MLB picks for June 29.
MLB props for June 29
- Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at bet365)
- Houck Over 4.5 strikeouts (-118 at FanDuel)
- Glasnow Over 7.5 strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 6-29 at 10:40 a.m. ET.
Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Alvarez Over 1.5 TB (+105)
Yordan Alvarez is one of the most feared hitters in the game and is 12th in the majors in total bases this year with 157.
Alvarez finished third in the AL MVP race in 2022 and while he started this season off a bit slowly, he's been on fire lately. The hard-hitting Houston Astros outfielder is slashing .354/.422/.747 this month and he has a great matchup today against New York Mets starter Tylor Megill.
Megill has a 4.81 ERA through seven starts and ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in hard-hit rate and barrel rate. He also relies primarily on his four-seamer and he gives up plenty of fly balls. That's bad news against a power hitter like Alvarez, who has an expected slugging percentage of .556 and has the platoon advantage.
It also helps that we're getting a stiff 17 mph breeze blowing toward the outfield at Citi Field today.
Yordan Alvarez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Houck Over 4.5 Ks (-118)
The San Diego Padres strike out at the lowest rate in the majors but the O/U on Tanner Houck's strikeouts total today is still too low at just 4.5. Houck was red-hot to begin the season and while he's cooled off a bit lately, he's still been reliable on the mound.
Houck has fanned at least five batters in eight straight starts and he's averaging 6.3 strikeouts per start on the year. The Boston Red Sox right-hander doesn't have overpowering velocity but his slider and splitter have been a nightmare for opponents. Houck is in the Top 15th percentile in chase rate and should eclipse his modest strikeouts total tonight.
Tanner Houck prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-118 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Glasnow Over 7.5 Ks (-110)
This is a play you have to keep betting on because it seems like books still haven't adjusted to Tyler Glasnow's Cy Young-caliber season. The towering right-hander is finally healthy and has been dominant, pitching to a 2.88 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP and an MLB-high 135 strikeouts through 100 innings.
The Los Angeles Dodgers ace has fanned at least eight batters in 10 of his last 11 outings and he's averaging 9.2 Ks per start over that span. The San Francisco Giants are 15th in the majors in strikeout rate (21.6%) but that number has ticked up to 23.7% over the last two weeks and they've struggled to make contact against righties.
Tyler Glasnow prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
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