The third game of this NL Central series gets underway tonight with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Chicago Cubs. MLB odds have Chicago as a moderate -135 favorite, while the total sits at 7.5.
My Cubs vs. Brewers prediction is bullish on Chicago’s chances as the favorite for the first time this series, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 29.
Cubs vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Cubs -1.5 (+130 at DraftKings)
My analysis
For the first time in this series, we will fade the Milwaukee Brewers. The Chicago Cubs hand the ball to rookie phenom Shota Imanaga, and he is a great candidate to back.
Through his first nine starts this season, the left-hander is 5-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Chicago won five of those nine games by at least a two-run margin.
While regression will eventually hit, Imanaga’s underlying metrics are still tremendous as he boasts a 2.62 xERA and .222 xBA. Meanwhile, right-hander Bryse Wilson takes the mound for Milwaukee.
Wilson has put together strong surface-level stats while bouncing between the bullpen and rotation this season. Through 13 appearances, the right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
However, there is a reason that the Cubs are favored. Wilson’s analytics suggest regression is quickly looming. He ranks in the 39th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Imanaga paces him in all four of those key metrics.
Wilson’s expected regression will likely come to fruition against Chicago, a team he possesses a fade-worthy 5.55 ERA against through 10 career meetings. Although the Brewers boast the stronger lineup, none have faced Imanaga.
Never seeing Imanaga before has been a problem for every team that has faced him thus far. Finally, there is more value on the Cubs’ run line at +130 rather than laying -135 on the moneyline.
That +130 payout via DraftKings is a particularly strong line as it is five to eight cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Cubs vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs -1.5
Under 7.5
For the sake of a same-game parlay, the Cubs moneyline works just fine compared to the run line (and correlates more strongly to a low-scoring game) and would run at a respectable +232. Chicago wins this game through Imanaga. The advantage goes to Milwaukee and its superior lineup if it's a high-scoring affair.
On top of that, the Cubs’ lineup is not good, ranking in the bottom half of the league in virtually every key statistic. Their path to victory is through a low-scoring game that features dominant pitching from Imanaga, something in the vein of a 3-1 or 4-2 final.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Brewers odds
Cubs vs Brewers live odds
Cubs vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 (+130) | Milwaukee+1.5 (-155)
- Moneyline: Chicago -135 | Milwaukee +114
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+105) | Under 8 (-125)
Cubs vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Chicago opened as a -135 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing
- I believe the market will keep moving this line in the Cubs’ direction, especially given Imanaga's domination thus far this season
- The total opened at 8 and has since been bet down to 7.5
- This total won’t go to 7, so I think we’ve seen the bottom with 7.5 (outside of a change in juice)
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of a sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Cubs vs Brewers trend
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+10.35 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs Brewers.
Cubs vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
MARQ, BSWI
|
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (5-0, 0.84 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Bryse WIlson (3-1, 2.86 ERA) |
Cubs vs Brewers latest injuries
Cubs vs Brewers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
