Two of the hottest teams in baseball will have a chance to go over the .500 mark tonight when the Houston Astros visit the New York Mets at Citi Field.
The Astros (40-40) have gone 15-7 during June, and are now .500 for the first time this season, while the Mets (39-39) are back in the playoff race following a 15-6 record in June.
The MLB odds have this game as a virtual tossup, but my Astros vs. Mets predictions break down why Houston is the team to back in our MLB picks for Friday, June 28.
Astros vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Astros moneyline (-108 at DraftKings)
My analysis
We could spend a long time breaking down how these two teams have turned their seasons around, but it primarily comes down to offense, as both the Houston Astros and New York Mets are finally hitting after a slow start to 2024.
However, while the Mets are averaging 7.8 runs per game over their last 10 outings, they’re also allowing a relatively normal four runs per game, relying primarily on their offense to power this recent surge.
Meanwhile, the Astros have been excellent on both sides of the ball. They’ve held opponents to two runs or less in seven of their last nine games, while only allowing more than three runs once in that stretch.
And no pitcher has been better for the Astros than the outstanding Ronel Blanco.
Blanco famously opened his season with a no-hitter against Toronto and nearly repeated that feat on June 16, tossing seven no-hit innings against Detroit. Overall, opposing batters are hitting just .164 with a .551 OPS against Blanco this season, and the right-hander enters tonight allowing just 5.1 hits per nine innings.
Overall, that has allowed Blanco to go 8-2 with a 2.34 ERA and a 0.969 WHIP this season, and the Dominican native gives Houston a clear edge over New York starter Jose Quintana tonight. The Mets' southpaw has gone 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA for the Mets this season, with a concerning 4.89 FIP and a 1.322 WHIP.
The 35-year-old is striking out fewer batters and walking more than in any of his last five seasons, a sign that Quintana may finally be hitting the downside of his aging curve. In a battle between two red-hot teams who can both hit, I’m going with the side that has the clear pitching advantage.
Astros vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Astros moneyline
Under 8.5
Ronel Blanco Under 5.5 hits allowed
Along with taking the Astros to win outright, I’m also going to take the Under. In each of Blanco’s last nine starts, the game total has been eight runs or less, a level of consistency that has me confident in another low-scoring affair.
I’ll also take Blanco to allow Under 5.5 hits tonight. Blanco hasn’t given up more than five hits in any start this year, a streak of 14 starts in which he did cough up any.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Mets odds
Astros vs Mets live odds
Astros vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+145) | New York +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: Houston -120 | New York +100
- Over: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Astros vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston has gone 11-3 straight up when Blanco starts this season, while New York has an 8-7 SU record with Quintana on the mound.
- The Astros have covered the run line in 15 of their last 22 games (+9.45 Units / 36% ROI).
- Houston has played below tonight’s total of 8.5 in seven of its last nine games. Conversely, New York has eclipsed that number in seven of its last nine.
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Astros vs Mets trend
Houston is 9-1 in its last 10 matchups against New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mets
Astros vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 6-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Ronel Blanco (8-2, 2.34 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (3-5, 4.58 ERA) |
Astros vs Mets latest injuries
Astros vs Mets weather
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