A rivalry is renewed as the Los Angeles Dodgers (51-31) head to the Bay Area for a three-game weekend series with the San Francisco Giants (39-43).
Game 1 goes down Friday night and is expected to be a close one at -110 apiece on the moneyline in the MLB odds.
With ace Logan Webb on the bump for the home team, I have my sights set on the total in my Dodgers vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks on Friday, June 28.
Dodgers vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
It should come as no surprise that Logan Webb has been more effective at home (2.06 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) than on the road (4.08 ERA, 1.36 ERA) this season. After all, that’s simply a continuation of splits that have followed him throughout his career (2.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.75 FIP at home, 4.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.47 FIP on the road).
He faces a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that carries a heavy reputation but has been lightened a bit since Mookie Betts broke his hand. Over the last 10 days without the star shortstop, they’ve posted a 102 wRC+ (15th) and a .307 wOBA (16th) against right-handed pitching. Not awful, but a noticeable step back from their 117 wRC+ (fourth) and .331 wOBA (also fourth) on the year.
The bottom of the order has given Dave Roberts fits all year. Now that one crucial name is absent from the top of the lineup, things are getting thin fast. Webb has held down two of the Top 4 hitters in the lineup in the past as Will Smith (4-for-22 with a .606 OPS) and Toescar Hernandez (1-for-7 with a .393 OPS) have found limited success against the 27-year-old.
On the flip side, rookie Landon Knack makes his sixth start of the year for a depleted Dodgers rotation. He’s filled in nicely thus far with a 2.10 ERA and 3.28 xERA. There are both encouraging signs (.217 xBA, 5.4% barrel rate) and discouraging ones — his 47.3% hard-hit rate and 91.9 mph average exit velocity are both higher than you’d like to see, and his 24.2% chase rate and 17.6% K-rate are not encouraging.
The verdict is still out on Knack, but it’s undeniable that he’s been effective in the box score thus far. He’s allowed no more than two earned runs in each of his five starts. If Knack does falter on Friday, it helps to have one of the league’s best bullpens behind him — the Dodgers rank second in ERA (3.02) and WHIP (1.06) out of the pen.
The San Francisco Giants hit lefties better than they do righties. That’s been especially true as of late as Bob Melvin’s squad has a measly 67 wRC+ (29th) and a .256 wOBA (also 29th) against righties across the last 10 days.
Dodgers vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Logan Webb Over 5.5 strikeouts
LaMonte Wade Jr. 2+ total bases
Webb isn’t known for racking up strikeouts but he’s recorded at least five punchouts in each of his last 10 starts. He was struggling to make batters miss at the start of the year but has counteracted that and now ranks in the 76th percentile in chase rate (31.1%).
If you’ve been following Webb’s underlying metrics this season then you’ve probably noticed his concerning contact quality numbers. The veteran has an awful 50.2% hard-hit rate that ranks in the first percentile, and his average exit velocity of 90.6 mph (12th percentile) isn’t much better.
Those concerns are mitigated since he plays at Oracle Park and it’s clear that he knows how to use these notoriously pitcher-friendly confines to his advantage. Still, he’s been avoiding contact more since the start of the year and upped his K/9 from 6.4 at the start of the year to 9.3 in May and 8.2 in June, so I’m buying the bump in Ks as he alters his approach.
LaMonte Wade Jr. is expected to return from the IL on Friday and that’s big news as he’s relied upon to punish righties (130 wRC+, .362 wOBA). I’m playing his alternate total bases of 2+ due to his strong numbers against right-handed pitchers, but one can be more conservative and play him to record 1+ total bases for +550 SGP odds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Giants odds
Dodgers vs Giants live odds
Dodgers vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 | San Francisco +1.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -104 | San Francisco -104
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Dodgers vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- This series has been dominated by the boys in blue lately. The Dodgers have won eight of the last 10 meetings and are 5-1 this season, winning the first five meetings before the Giants grabbed a 4-1 victory in the final game of the most recent series to avoid a second straight sweep.
- The Giants are 18-22-1 O/U at home while the Dodgers are 17-24 O/U on the road.
- The Dodgers have cashed the Under in 32 of their last 54 games.
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Dodgers vs Giants trend
The Dodgers are 1-4 O/U in Knack’s last five starts and the Giants are 2-5 O/U in Webb’s last seven starts at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Giants
Dodgers vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 6-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, NBCSBA |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Landon Knack (1-1, 2.10 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Logan Webb (6-6, 3.16 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Giants latest injuries
Dodgers vs Giants weather
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