The Milwaukee Brewers swept the Texas Rangers at American Family Field to extend their home winning streak to five games and will look to keep it going against the Chicago Cubs with righty Colin Rea — my Cubs vs. Brewers prediction target — taking the mound on Friday, June 28.
Chicago will counter with Jameson Taillon, and the veteran righty is coming off a season-high, 10-strikeout gem against the New York Mets last time out.
Here are our free MLB picks for Friday’s NL Central showdown.
Cubs vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Colin Rea Under 4.5 strikeouts (-103 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Milwaukee Brewers starter Colin Rea has been solid on the surface this season with a 3.62 ERA, but his underlying numbers underwhelm, and in particular his strikeout metrics. Rea’s 5.93 K/9 and 15.6 K% both rank 73rd out of 75 qualified pitchers in the majors, and his 2.08 K:BB ranks 68th. Add his .254 BABIP ranking 14th-lowest to his 9.5 Barrel% 14th-highest, and Rea has a string of tough starts coming his way.
While the Chicago Cubs have been strikeout-prone with a sixth-ranked 24.5 K% against right-handed pitchers, they also sport the third-highest BB% (9.8%). I’m anticipating the Chicago lineup continuing to take a patient approach at the plate and make Rea pitch deep into counts.
Additionally, Rea lacks a swing-and-miss pitch mix, with a pedestrian 6.9 swinging-strike percentage, and his two most frequent pitches — sinker (-3.1) and cutter (-3.8) — both have negative pitch values.
Finally, I also value Milwaukee having the day off Thursday and playing a second consecutive series at home. The bullpen is rested, and the Brewers have big-innings starters Tobias Myers and Freddy Peralta lined up for Games 2 and 3 of the series. Manager Pat Murphy doesn't need to rely on Rea to go deep into Friday's game.
Cubs vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Colin Rea Under 4.5 strikeouts
In addition to the highlighted regression coming for Rea, I also expect the Brewers to put runs on the board against Chicago starter Jameson Taillon. His 2.90 ERA is unsustainable compared to his 4.29 xFIP, and his velocity is down across the board. This will also be his third start of the season against Milwaukee, so the Brew Crew have had their looks against the veteran. Taillon held them scoreless through six innings on May 4, and the Brewers scored three through six frames in the second meeting May 30.
Of course, Milwaukee also ranks fifth in both wOBA (.330) and wRC+ (114) against right-handed pitchers this season, and the Chicago bullpen is a nightmare. The Cubs are 20th in xFIP (4.12) out of the ‘pen.
There’s also an edge in the +264 DraftKings price for this same-game parlay. Compared to the +212 FanDuel odds, there’s a sizable positive expected value of 17%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Brewers odds
Cubs vs Brewers live odds
Cubs vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-177) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+159)
- Moneyline: Chicago +120 | Milwaukee -130
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-106) | Under Over 8.5 (-106)
Cubs vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This moneyline hasn’t seen movement since opening through bet365, and Pinnacle has only made minor adjustments since opening Milwaukee -130 on Thursday evening. The Brewers are -131 as of Friday morning at Pinny.
- There has been a move to the Over across the industry. Pinnacle opened at 8.5 (-106/-106) Thursday evening, and the Over 8.5 is priced at -111 as of Friday morning.
- This is consistent with the bet365 shift. The Over 8.5 has moved from an opening +100 to -115 during the same timeframe.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of a sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Cubs vs Brewers trend
Rea has struck out four batters or fewer in two of his past three starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers
Cubs vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Friday, 6-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, BSWI |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (4-3, 2.90 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Colin Rea (6-2, 3.62 ERA) |
Cubs vs Brewers latest injuries
Cubs vs Brewers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
