It should be a pitcher’s delight in the Pacific Northwest when the Seattle Mariners play host to the Minnesota Twins this evening.
With two fly-ball pitchers toeing the slab in an unfriendly park for opposing hitters, it's no surprise that oddsmakers have set a low total for tonight's matchup in the Emerald City.
Let’s take a deeper look and give you our Twins vs Mariners predictions and MLB picks for Friday, June 28.
Twins vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Under 7 (+100 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Bailey Ober is about as extreme a fly-ball pitcher as they come, allowing balls in the air at a 31.7% clip, which is over eight points higher than the league average.
The Minnesota Twins right-hander will now take the mound at one of the hardest venues to hit home runs, and the Seattle Mariners continue to be one of the most pedestrian lineups in baseball, hitting a large complement of balls in the air inside the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. While they’ve taken a ton more walks over the last two weeks, they’re still striking out more than any team in baseball.
On the other side of the ball for the Twins, they're hitting .305 over this span, but have been driven by gaudy power numbers — hitting roughly 41% of their batted balls in the air.
For Mariners starter Logan Gilbert, the righty's ground ball rate has increased slightly this year, putting him only a few percentage points above the league average in fly balls. However, given the Twins’ approach, we can expect a lot of well-struck balls in the air, which should be contained inside such an arduous park for home run hitters.
With plenty of punchouts coming for Ober, Seattle’s offense should once again be held in check, and Minnesota’s bats should cool off a bit as well.
Twins vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7
Royce Lewis Over 0.5 hits
Willi Castro Over 0.5 hits
By combining a couple of offensive props here with the Under, we can actually get some great odds on tonight's SGP.
Royce Lewis may be sporting just one hit in his last four games, but he’s proved throughout his career that this is just a minor speedbump. Lewis is hitting a whopping .395 against fly-ball pitchers this season, and for his career, stands at a robust .338.
Meanwhile, Willi Castro has hit safely in 10 straight games, providing an average of .405 over this span.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Mariners odds
Twins vs Mariners live odds
Twins vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-210) | Seattle -1.5 (+175)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +110 | Seattle -130
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)
Twins vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mariners have hit the game total Under in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+13.60 Units / 32% ROI).
- The Twins have hit the F5 team total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.74 Units / 22% ROI).
- At DraftKings, only 33% of bettors are on the Twins, with just 23% of the handle heading that way.
- The Over has accounted for a whopping 84% of the tickets wagered on the total.
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Twins vs Mariners trend
Seattle has only hit the F5 team total Over in 21 of their last 50 games (-11.20 Units / -19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Mariners
Twins vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Friday, 6-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, RSNW |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.50 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (5-4, 2.71 ERA) |
Twins vs Mariners latest injuries
Twins vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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