The San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game series at Fenway Park on Friday night. Both teams have been on a roll, but my Padres vs. Red Sox predictions for June 28 are betting on the home side to get out to an early lead.
Here are my MLB picks for this interleague showdown.
Padres vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Red Sox F5 -0.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The San Diego Padres have won seven of their last eight games, but it's tough to see an area where they have the edge today.
The Boston Red Sox are sending veteran right-hander Nick Pivetta to the hill. Pivetta hasn't been great but with a 4.06 ERA and an OBA of .237 through 11 starts, but he's been significantly better than San Diego's starter Randy Vasquez.
Vasquez has a 5.10 ERA with a .345 OBA through 10 starts and his expected ERA is even uglier at 6.81. He's been even worse away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park, posting a 6.85 ERA with an OBA of .385 in five starts on the road.
The Red Sox have also been mashing at the plate lately, ranking fourth in the majors in OPS (.820) and plating 5.59 runs per game this month. San Diego's lineup has also been productive in June, posting an OPS of .775, but All-Star slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. ending up on the IL last week hurts.
With Vasquez struggling on the mound and facing a red-hot Red Sox lineup, back Boston to have a lead after five innings.
Padres vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox F5 -0.5
Luis Arraez Under 0.5 strikeouts
Jurickson Profar Over 0.5 hits
Jurickson Profar leads the Friars with a .316 batting average and has picked up a hit in 10 straight games.
Luis Arraez is one of the best contact hitters in the majors and has struck out just nine times in 47 games with San Diego. The left-handed Arraez strikes out even less against righties like Pivetta.
Both of these prop plays on Padres hitters are heavily juiced on their own, but when parlayed with a run line bet on Boston, it gives us a nice multiplier.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Red Sox odds
Padres vs Red Sox live odds
Padres vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-165) | Boston -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: San Diego +130 | Boston -155
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Padres vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Padres are 7-1 in their last eight games with four of those victories coming as underdogs.
- The Red Sox have won eight of their last 10 games overall and they've gone 7-3 in Pivetta's last 10 starts.
- The Friars lost Tatis to an injury last Friday but have plated 6.4 runs per game in five games since.
- Boston's bullpen is third in the majors in WAR (3.9) and seventh in ERA (3.45) while San Diego's relievers have a 1.6 WAR and are 18th in ERA (4.09).
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of a sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Padres vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have covered the First Five Innings Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.75 Units / 41% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Red Sox
Padres vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, 6-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Randy Vasquez (2-4, 5.10 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (4-4, 4.06 ERA) |
Padres vs Red Sox latest injuries
Padres vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
