@GASportsDoc
Thanks Doc == Luck always helps.
Last Post 1-0 +100 YTD 52W 29L 64% + 2085 Units
I hit the opening number on tomorrow's Panthers-Ranger game. The opening number appears at scoresandodds. It's usually pretty accurate. Not always. The Rangers were overwhelmed by a much better Bruins team last game. Tomorrow I think they have a much better chance of winning before going out on a short 1 game road trip. The Panthers usually play better at home than they do on the road. The Rangers have had a couple of days off, enabling Chis Kreider to fully recover from his injury. Without him in the line-up, they have struggled to score enough goals to allow them to win consistently. Tonight, I'm hoping they can renew their scoring punch. I made the # Rangers - 140 ========= It opened Rangers - 125. A fair price for me to lay. So it's
Rangers - 125============ I would lay up to - 135 to still find value.
Best Of Luck Please Bet Responsibly ============== Let's Go!
Last Post 1-0 +100 YTD 52W 29L 64% + 2085 Units
I hit the opening number on tomorrow's Panthers-Ranger game. The opening number appears at scoresandodds. It's usually pretty accurate. Not always. The Rangers were overwhelmed by a much better Bruins team last game. Tomorrow I think they have a much better chance of winning before going out on a short 1 game road trip. The Panthers usually play better at home than they do on the road. The Rangers have had a couple of days off, enabling Chis Kreider to fully recover from his injury. Without him in the line-up, they have struggled to score enough goals to allow them to win consistently. Tonight, I'm hoping they can renew their scoring punch. I made the # Rangers - 140 ========= It opened Rangers - 125. A fair price for me to lay. So it's
Rangers - 125============ I would lay up to - 135 to still find value.
Best Of Luck Please Bet Responsibly ============== Let's Go!
A little more information on why I played the Rangers. The Panthers will be starting their back-up goalkeeper Alex Lyons tonight. However, he has played well in his recent starts this year. Sometimes a team will rally around their back-up goalie, & play strong defensive hockey. I'm a little surprised that the market is not reacting to this news, by driving the price of the Rangers upward. Sometimes not a good sign. These teams have usually played high scoring games in the past. I believe they're 13-0 going Over in their last 13 games. Wow! That's the reason the line is 6.5 - 120 to the over. Having stated that, I'm not wagering on the total. Player props
I like Panarin because of his consistency against Florida. He continues to pounce on the Panthers and has had multiple points against them in each of his last 6 games facing them, and 7 of the last 8. That includes a 4-point performance with a goal and 3 assists. Whether you want to target his multipoint prop or play it safer with the assist, I expect a big night from Panarin, proving why he was named to the all-star squad.
Over 1/2 - 125 assists should cash, if you believe in history repeating itself. I do
Please do not be robbed by certain Sportsbooks who have this prop at - 1 -140?
I suggest you open an account with Draft Kings, who has the prop still at - 1/2 - 130 as I type this post.
Win or Lose, you deserve to bet into a fair line.
A little more information on why I played the Rangers. The Panthers will be starting their back-up goalkeeper Alex Lyons tonight. However, he has played well in his recent starts this year. Sometimes a team will rally around their back-up goalie, & play strong defensive hockey. I'm a little surprised that the market is not reacting to this news, by driving the price of the Rangers upward. Sometimes not a good sign. These teams have usually played high scoring games in the past. I believe they're 13-0 going Over in their last 13 games. Wow! That's the reason the line is 6.5 - 120 to the over. Having stated that, I'm not wagering on the total. Player props
I like Panarin because of his consistency against Florida. He continues to pounce on the Panthers and has had multiple points against them in each of his last 6 games facing them, and 7 of the last 8. That includes a 4-point performance with a goal and 3 assists. Whether you want to target his multipoint prop or play it safer with the assist, I expect a big night from Panarin, proving why he was named to the all-star squad.
Over 1/2 - 125 assists should cash, if you believe in history repeating itself. I do
Please do not be robbed by certain Sportsbooks who have this prop at - 1 -140?
I suggest you open an account with Draft Kings, who has the prop still at - 1/2 - 130 as I type this post.
Win or Lose, you deserve to bet into a fair line.
Played the The Bread Man prop this morning. Florida down to Lyon in goal. Even though he got a good win I think with a rested Rangers team and getting some folks back I think Panarin will get an assist early. He usually does well against Florida and Florida will be dealing with some injuries themselves. I just hope he assists early instead of scoring himself.
Either way — good luck on those plays.
Played the The Bread Man prop this morning. Florida down to Lyon in goal. Even though he got a good win I think with a rested Rangers team and getting some folks back I think Panarin will get an assist early. He usually does well against Florida and Florida will be dealing with some injuries themselves. I just hope he assists early instead of scoring himself.
Either way — good luck on those plays.
Thank you Red, followed you on this one as well as the NBA one, have to say the write up on this one was really cool to read and understand your reasoning for this bet, so that's why I tailed you, hopefully you will bring some more analysis/plays today as well, as there are a lot of matches today, would be interesting to see your side of view on these matches or a specific one, looking forward to it and keep up the good work!
Thank you Red, followed you on this one as well as the NBA one, have to say the write up on this one was really cool to read and understand your reasoning for this bet, so that's why I tailed you, hopefully you will bring some more analysis/plays today as well, as there are a lot of matches today, would be interesting to see your side of view on these matches or a specific one, looking forward to it and keep up the good work!
@ArchaMoon
Thanks my friend. I do my best, but I have to admit it's hard to hit more than 60% of your wagers, I've had some good puck bounces & luck. That's why we always have to have great discipline, when we venture into the world of sports wagering. It's the hardest way, to make an easy living. I can assure you.
@ArchaMoon
Thanks my friend. I do my best, but I have to admit it's hard to hit more than 60% of your wagers, I've had some good puck bounces & luck. That's why we always have to have great discipline, when we venture into the world of sports wagering. It's the hardest way, to make an easy living. I can assure you.
Yesterday 2-0 YTD 54W 29L 65% +2285 Units
So, I know that all the sports writers are saying that Rick Tocchet is not a player's coach, and will struggle to rally the Canuck team around him. Maybe so? But tonight they have a few things going for them, that has nothing to do with the change in coaching. They catch the Black-Hawks in a very tough scheduling spot. Black-Hawks have to play their 3rd in 4 night, traveling from the central time, to the pacific time zone. Plus, they come off of a tight checking, low scoring loss to the Kings. That's brutal, IMO. So, even though many think the price of the game is too high, I am thinking it is slightly low. Betonline has it priced at -210. I make the number -230. Having said that, I believe there's slightly more value in the regulation wager, as well as the puck line.
I played Canucks -130 Regulation at Heritage 1/2 Unit & Canucks - 1.5 + 120 1/2 Unit at Betonline.
Since I hit my player prop yesterday, I'll try another one today
Jake Guentzel to record 1 assist or more +110 Penguins-Panther game DraftKings
Best Of Luck Please Bet Responsibly ========== Let's Go!
Yesterday 2-0 YTD 54W 29L 65% +2285 Units
So, I know that all the sports writers are saying that Rick Tocchet is not a player's coach, and will struggle to rally the Canuck team around him. Maybe so? But tonight they have a few things going for them, that has nothing to do with the change in coaching. They catch the Black-Hawks in a very tough scheduling spot. Black-Hawks have to play their 3rd in 4 night, traveling from the central time, to the pacific time zone. Plus, they come off of a tight checking, low scoring loss to the Kings. That's brutal, IMO. So, even though many think the price of the game is too high, I am thinking it is slightly low. Betonline has it priced at -210. I make the number -230. Having said that, I believe there's slightly more value in the regulation wager, as well as the puck line.
I played Canucks -130 Regulation at Heritage 1/2 Unit & Canucks - 1.5 + 120 1/2 Unit at Betonline.
Since I hit my player prop yesterday, I'll try another one today
Jake Guentzel to record 1 assist or more +110 Penguins-Panther game DraftKings
Best Of Luck Please Bet Responsibly ========== Let's Go!
Yesterday 3-0 2 = 1/2 Unit plays & the 1 unit player prop hit as well YTD 57W 29L 66% +2515 Units
I have been traveling all day, so I did not get a chance to look at all the analytics for tonight's card. So, I'm just had to use my gut instincts.
The lines that were put up by the odds-makers seem pretty spot on. I can't find anything worth playing as far as value is concerned. So, No official wagers that I can recommend concerning that perspective. The Kraken should handle the Canucks, but they tend to play better on the road than they do on home ice. I agree that it would be surprising if a coaching change can make a bad Canuck team too much better. But, it might be wise to wait till after the All-star break to see how it turns out. Since I'm running hot, I made a rare round-robin wager on the Maple-Leafs=Oilers=& Kraken, laying 2 Dimes to pick up 6.5 for shits & giggles.
How bad is an Islander team who simply cannot score, yet refuses to do anything about it? It is really astounding & shows their total disregard of their fan base. Have they ever heard of the word TRADE?. Or how about firing a coach, who can't motivate his team, if his life depended on it. WOW!
Best Of Luck On All Your Wagers. Bet Responsibly & Be A Winner!
Yesterday 3-0 2 = 1/2 Unit plays & the 1 unit player prop hit as well YTD 57W 29L 66% +2515 Units
I have been traveling all day, so I did not get a chance to look at all the analytics for tonight's card. So, I'm just had to use my gut instincts.
The lines that were put up by the odds-makers seem pretty spot on. I can't find anything worth playing as far as value is concerned. So, No official wagers that I can recommend concerning that perspective. The Kraken should handle the Canucks, but they tend to play better on the road than they do on home ice. I agree that it would be surprising if a coaching change can make a bad Canuck team too much better. But, it might be wise to wait till after the All-star break to see how it turns out. Since I'm running hot, I made a rare round-robin wager on the Maple-Leafs=Oilers=& Kraken, laying 2 Dimes to pick up 6.5 for shits & giggles.
How bad is an Islander team who simply cannot score, yet refuses to do anything about it? It is really astounding & shows their total disregard of their fan base. Have they ever heard of the word TRADE?. Or how about firing a coach, who can't motivate his team, if his life depended on it. WOW!
Best Of Luck On All Your Wagers. Bet Responsibly & Be A Winner!
@Redlad
Forgot you were traveling yesterday! Just curious when you do have time what analytics do you look at and what stats do you generally think have the largest effect on what you pick ?
@Redlad
Forgot you were traveling yesterday! Just curious when you do have time what analytics do you look at and what stats do you generally think have the largest effect on what you pick ?
@Merle_iv
There are so many things to look at that I would take about 2 hours to list them all, but the most thing for a sports gambler to learn is how to make your own line. That's the only way you can know if you have any expected value, when you place a wager. All betting, whether it be betting on sports, craps, blackjack ad nauseam, comes down to one factor, (if you want to be a winner). Do you? Or the house have the best of it, when placing a wager? If the house has the best of it (which they mostly always do) they will grind you out in the long run. That's a promise. On the other hand, if you can manage to have the best of the odds, when placing a wager, then YOU will be a winner, also in the LONG RUN. If you can manage to hit 56% of your wagers at -110 in the long term, a person can make a living just betting on sports. You're, not going to win every bet because the luck factor is prevalent in all forms of gambling as well. Also remember that a gambler will experience Hot, as well as Cold streaks throughout their gambling endeavors. No matter how good of a handicapper, they may be. Right now, I'm running hot, but eventually I will cool off. It goes with the territory. Also, understand that better than 99% of all sports gamblers lose. It's just a fact So, you have to work hard on building your knowledge, just like you would do, if gambling on the stock market. KNOWLEDGE is POWER. Start by trying to build power ratings for each team. You can look at Jeff Sagerins page to help you understand how to do this. The odds-makers always start with power ratings & then make adjustments for home ice (or court, in basketball) & injury updates, who the starting goalkeepers might be ETC: So, before anyone accuses me of being an egotistical maniac. I just want to state, that I was asked a question, & I tried to answer it, to the best of my ability. I never mentioned anything about being a former oddsmaker (which I was), because everyone knows that a former oddsmaker would never post his plays on a sports forum, according to some. He, must be full of crap. Well, if that's what some want to believe, it's fine with me. I am bored & have always been for the bettor because the house is dealing with the juice, the player is using their talent to overcome it. So, who's the good guy, in that situation? You tell me. I know I didn't fully answer your question, but maybe I can shed some more light on what I look for in another post. It's great that you are anxious to learn how to be a better handicapper. I hope I can help you develop that ability. Good Luck!
@Merle_iv
There are so many things to look at that I would take about 2 hours to list them all, but the most thing for a sports gambler to learn is how to make your own line. That's the only way you can know if you have any expected value, when you place a wager. All betting, whether it be betting on sports, craps, blackjack ad nauseam, comes down to one factor, (if you want to be a winner). Do you? Or the house have the best of it, when placing a wager? If the house has the best of it (which they mostly always do) they will grind you out in the long run. That's a promise. On the other hand, if you can manage to have the best of the odds, when placing a wager, then YOU will be a winner, also in the LONG RUN. If you can manage to hit 56% of your wagers at -110 in the long term, a person can make a living just betting on sports. You're, not going to win every bet because the luck factor is prevalent in all forms of gambling as well. Also remember that a gambler will experience Hot, as well as Cold streaks throughout their gambling endeavors. No matter how good of a handicapper, they may be. Right now, I'm running hot, but eventually I will cool off. It goes with the territory. Also, understand that better than 99% of all sports gamblers lose. It's just a fact So, you have to work hard on building your knowledge, just like you would do, if gambling on the stock market. KNOWLEDGE is POWER. Start by trying to build power ratings for each team. You can look at Jeff Sagerins page to help you understand how to do this. The odds-makers always start with power ratings & then make adjustments for home ice (or court, in basketball) & injury updates, who the starting goalkeepers might be ETC: So, before anyone accuses me of being an egotistical maniac. I just want to state, that I was asked a question, & I tried to answer it, to the best of my ability. I never mentioned anything about being a former oddsmaker (which I was), because everyone knows that a former oddsmaker would never post his plays on a sports forum, according to some. He, must be full of crap. Well, if that's what some want to believe, it's fine with me. I am bored & have always been for the bettor because the house is dealing with the juice, the player is using their talent to overcome it. So, who's the good guy, in that situation? You tell me. I know I didn't fully answer your question, but maybe I can shed some more light on what I look for in another post. It's great that you are anxious to learn how to be a better handicapper. I hope I can help you develop that ability. Good Luck!
The Oilers cost me over $6,000 by losing in OT sinking my 3 team round-robin wager at 4 to 1 (odds). Yikes! Who said big favorites always hold up? I'm looking at only 1 game tonight that might be worth a wager for me. I'm still checking goalkeeper updates, so I will post it later.
The Oilers cost me over $6,000 by losing in OT sinking my 3 team round-robin wager at 4 to 1 (odds). Yikes! Who said big favorites always hold up? I'm looking at only 1 game tonight that might be worth a wager for me. I'm still checking goalkeeper updates, so I will post it later.
@Redlad
Thank you ! I really appreciate the help. I definitely want to learn more about developing my own lines and understanding how to do that. Ill check out that page ! If theres any other way to learn on making my own lines I’d love that too! Also look forward to what you are thinking tonight ! Cheers !
@Redlad
Thank you ! I really appreciate the help. I definitely want to learn more about developing my own lines and understanding how to do that. Ill check out that page ! If theres any other way to learn on making my own lines I’d love that too! Also look forward to what you are thinking tonight ! Cheers !
@Redlad
Very nicely worded. I would add that nowadays there are so many analytics that are available for each sport right on the internet. The guy was asking which metrics are best. To me it varies and changes dependent on sport and as the season progresses. But you can see in NHL expected goals, PK efficiency ratings, home/rest combos, goalie efficiency ratings. For example, the Bruins right now are 1st in goals against per game AND PK %. So, they are just as efficient at keeping opponents from scoring when they are a man down.
For example, a quote I saw on a website today:
“The Penguins recently got goalie Tristan Jarry back, which should help them when it comes to keeping opponents off the scoreboard, but they are still very weak in that area. In fact, the Penguins rank 5th in expected goals scored per 60 minutes but 21st in expected goals against per 60 minutes, which shows their shaky defensive structure.”
Since the start of the month, the Devils have easily been a top five offense. They rank 3rd in goals per game with a mark of 3.91, 3rd in powerplay percentage and just outside the top 10 in shots per game. They also have only scored less than three goals in a game just once in their last 12 games. Compare that to the Predators, in the same time frame, who rank 19th in goals per game with a mark of 3.08, have a bottom six powerplay and rank 16th in shots per game. They also have only scored over two goals in a game just once in their last five games. This gap in offenses is important because both teams rank right by each other in numerous defensive categories since the start of January. Look for the Devils attack to be the difference.
These things may not be the main thing to look at but they are very good to know. Of course, each game is its own situation.
He was asking about NHL. There are many good websites that break all of these things down. Most are free. There are some sites that have very good power ratings. There are places to backtest some ideas that you think are key factors, etc.
That way, with so much information readily available, a person that has a job and family or does not have much free time really does not have to do as much work.
Each sport is different. For example, NHL and MLB are different from NFL and Soccer. Because of the length of the seasons. So, in some sports an analytical idea you might have would be more valuable if used in a trailing average method. What was very key for a team early in the season may not be key at all later in the season.
Then I would add that bankroll management and betting-size are very key — especially in a long season like NHL. There are many methods of doing this.
Too many people just bet to have action. Like you mentioned: you should only be betting if you think that play has EV. Then you have to decide how much EV you expect and bet accordingly — if it is long term or a stand alone situation.
That is why I never have an issue with someone tailing plays or even paying for plays. People always say do your own handicapping and make your own plays.
That is not fair to someone staring out or to someone that does not have the know-how or the free time to do this.
If you want to have action, and hopefully, win, you might need to follow someone if it is in a sport that you are not keyed into. At least until you learn what you are doing.
@Redlad
Very nicely worded. I would add that nowadays there are so many analytics that are available for each sport right on the internet. The guy was asking which metrics are best. To me it varies and changes dependent on sport and as the season progresses. But you can see in NHL expected goals, PK efficiency ratings, home/rest combos, goalie efficiency ratings. For example, the Bruins right now are 1st in goals against per game AND PK %. So, they are just as efficient at keeping opponents from scoring when they are a man down.
For example, a quote I saw on a website today:
“The Penguins recently got goalie Tristan Jarry back, which should help them when it comes to keeping opponents off the scoreboard, but they are still very weak in that area. In fact, the Penguins rank 5th in expected goals scored per 60 minutes but 21st in expected goals against per 60 minutes, which shows their shaky defensive structure.”
Since the start of the month, the Devils have easily been a top five offense. They rank 3rd in goals per game with a mark of 3.91, 3rd in powerplay percentage and just outside the top 10 in shots per game. They also have only scored less than three goals in a game just once in their last 12 games. Compare that to the Predators, in the same time frame, who rank 19th in goals per game with a mark of 3.08, have a bottom six powerplay and rank 16th in shots per game. They also have only scored over two goals in a game just once in their last five games. This gap in offenses is important because both teams rank right by each other in numerous defensive categories since the start of January. Look for the Devils attack to be the difference.
These things may not be the main thing to look at but they are very good to know. Of course, each game is its own situation.
He was asking about NHL. There are many good websites that break all of these things down. Most are free. There are some sites that have very good power ratings. There are places to backtest some ideas that you think are key factors, etc.
That way, with so much information readily available, a person that has a job and family or does not have much free time really does not have to do as much work.
Each sport is different. For example, NHL and MLB are different from NFL and Soccer. Because of the length of the seasons. So, in some sports an analytical idea you might have would be more valuable if used in a trailing average method. What was very key for a team early in the season may not be key at all later in the season.
Then I would add that bankroll management and betting-size are very key — especially in a long season like NHL. There are many methods of doing this.
Too many people just bet to have action. Like you mentioned: you should only be betting if you think that play has EV. Then you have to decide how much EV you expect and bet accordingly — if it is long term or a stand alone situation.
That is why I never have an issue with someone tailing plays or even paying for plays. People always say do your own handicapping and make your own plays.
That is not fair to someone staring out or to someone that does not have the know-how or the free time to do this.
If you want to have action, and hopefully, win, you might need to follow someone if it is in a sport that you are not keyed into. At least until you learn what you are doing.
@Raiders22
Hey I really appreciate the help too. I got alot to learn but it helps to have you guys to get me started and in the right direction ! I will be back for more questions I’m sure haha! Cheers !
@Raiders22
Hey I really appreciate the help too. I got alot to learn but it helps to have you guys to get me started and in the right direction ! I will be back for more questions I’m sure haha! Cheers !
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