Autopsy of last wager = No excuses. It seemed that Ottawa at -105 was the right side. They just didn't play up to my expectations.
Tonight, I am breaking 1 of my cardinal rules === Never ask a bad team to win, against a better team at home.
In the NHL, bad teams have practically no home ice advantage, IMO.
But, I also always felt that teams that are on extended road trips tend to pace themselves, hoping to win a certain amount of games of said road trip.
If this holds true, the Kraken might look past the Canadians tonight. It least I hope they will.
So I played Canadians + 180 straight-up 1/2 a Unit Canadians + 1.5 goals - 130 1/2 Unit = I also went Under 6 even total goals scored 1 Unit.
Last week was not the best for me, as a couple of close OT games did not fall my way. Lady Luck was definite not my friend in hockey nor football wagers.
However, I've been doing this for a very long time, & know that luck will run in streaks. Right now it seems I'm experiencing a bad streak, this week could be a good streak. It's the nature of the beast, when one is gambling. The bottom line is what's important, Units won or lost, at the end of a season.
Best Of Luck ============= Please Bet Responsibly =============== Let's Go!
Autopsy of last wager = No excuses. It seemed that Ottawa at -105 was the right side. They just didn't play up to my expectations.
Tonight, I am breaking 1 of my cardinal rules === Never ask a bad team to win, against a better team at home.
In the NHL, bad teams have practically no home ice advantage, IMO.
But, I also always felt that teams that are on extended road trips tend to pace themselves, hoping to win a certain amount of games of said road trip.
If this holds true, the Kraken might look past the Canadians tonight. It least I hope they will.
So I played Canadians + 180 straight-up 1/2 a Unit Canadians + 1.5 goals - 130 1/2 Unit = I also went Under 6 even total goals scored 1 Unit.
Last week was not the best for me, as a couple of close OT games did not fall my way. Lady Luck was definite not my friend in hockey nor football wagers.
However, I've been doing this for a very long time, & know that luck will run in streaks. Right now it seems I'm experiencing a bad streak, this week could be a good streak. It's the nature of the beast, when one is gambling. The bottom line is what's important, Units won or lost, at the end of a season.
Best Of Luck ============= Please Bet Responsibly =============== Let's Go!
Last post 0-1 YTD 40W 25L + 1440 Autopsy of last wager = No excuses. It seemed that Ottawa at -105 was the right side.
But is Ottawa the worst team? Record says yes but is that the best indicator? They allow an identical 3.18 goals per game. Ottawa has superior specials teams ranking #4 on the PP to the Kraken’s #17, ranking at #6 to the Kraken’s nearly dead last #31. Seattle is scoring more but its from an inflated shooting % which ranks second overall in the league behind only Buffalo—they don’t generate a ton of shots ranking at the 5fewest. Ottawa gets more pucks to the net and sits at #13 overall in shots on goal generated. Team Save% favors Ottawa as well ranking in at #17 with a .901 while Seattle is nearly dead last again with an .886 that ranks them at #31. Ottawa creates more scoring chances and more high-danger chances. At 5x5 these teams rank nearly identical in xGF yet somehow Seattle (83.2) has potted 101 goals whereas Ottawa (81.6) hits the back of the net on only 63 occasions. That’s a HUGE inflated number for Seattle which implies a massive amount of puck luck which isn’t remotely sustainable.
How is Martin Jones 18-5-3 with abysmal numbers? .891 Save% and 2.89 isn't even AHL worthy in this league.
Funny enough I thought your post was for today, so I did this deep dive. To me, Ottawa was 100% the play here and I know they lost 8-4 which is crazy because it just shows they continue to win despite poor play. They put home 8 goals despite an xGF of only 2.32 which in just this game is the same as their season on a whole.
Last post 0-1 YTD 40W 25L + 1440 Autopsy of last wager = No excuses. It seemed that Ottawa at -105 was the right side.
But is Ottawa the worst team? Record says yes but is that the best indicator? They allow an identical 3.18 goals per game. Ottawa has superior specials teams ranking #4 on the PP to the Kraken’s #17, ranking at #6 to the Kraken’s nearly dead last #31. Seattle is scoring more but its from an inflated shooting % which ranks second overall in the league behind only Buffalo—they don’t generate a ton of shots ranking at the 5fewest. Ottawa gets more pucks to the net and sits at #13 overall in shots on goal generated. Team Save% favors Ottawa as well ranking in at #17 with a .901 while Seattle is nearly dead last again with an .886 that ranks them at #31. Ottawa creates more scoring chances and more high-danger chances. At 5x5 these teams rank nearly identical in xGF yet somehow Seattle (83.2) has potted 101 goals whereas Ottawa (81.6) hits the back of the net on only 63 occasions. That’s a HUGE inflated number for Seattle which implies a massive amount of puck luck which isn’t remotely sustainable.
How is Martin Jones 18-5-3 with abysmal numbers? .891 Save% and 2.89 isn't even AHL worthy in this league.
Funny enough I thought your post was for today, so I did this deep dive. To me, Ottawa was 100% the play here and I know they lost 8-4 which is crazy because it just shows they continue to win despite poor play. They put home 8 goals despite an xGF of only 2.32 which in just this game is the same as their season on a whole.
Seattle is scoring more, but it's from an inflated shooting % which ranks second overall in the league behind only Buffalo—they don’t generate a ton of shots, ranking at the 5fewest.
Very important numbers IMO. Yet they weren't against Ottawa? It happens. Kraken scored 8 goals on 24 shot attempts ?? Go figure.
I try not to do paralysis by analysis. I talk to many young handicappers who can tell you every statistic known to man. But, sometimes I think they can't see the forest for the many, many trees, so still only cash 50% of their wagers. It's what statistic that has proven to be the most important that I think should be emphasized. But just my opinion. And when running bad, I should probably keep my opinions to myself. Lol === Thanks for commenting on my thread. Fellow NYer
Seattle is scoring more, but it's from an inflated shooting % which ranks second overall in the league behind only Buffalo—they don’t generate a ton of shots, ranking at the 5fewest.
Very important numbers IMO. Yet they weren't against Ottawa? It happens. Kraken scored 8 goals on 24 shot attempts ?? Go figure.
I try not to do paralysis by analysis. I talk to many young handicappers who can tell you every statistic known to man. But, sometimes I think they can't see the forest for the many, many trees, so still only cash 50% of their wagers. It's what statistic that has proven to be the most important that I think should be emphasized. But just my opinion. And when running bad, I should probably keep my opinions to myself. Lol === Thanks for commenting on my thread. Fellow NYer
Im all over Dawgs, BTW, just curious who you might be on. Georgia got the best OSU had to offer, and still managed to win. TCU got a lot of help against Michigan, but Georgia is even better than Michigan, and wont make some of those stupid pick 6's.
Im all over Dawgs, BTW, just curious who you might be on. Georgia got the best OSU had to offer, and still managed to win. TCU got a lot of help against Michigan, but Georgia is even better than Michigan, and wont make some of those stupid pick 6's.
@NYBartender Seattle is scoring more, but it's from an inflated shooting % which ranks second overall in the league behind only Buffalo—they don’t generate a ton of shots, ranking at the 5fewest. Very important numbers IMO. Yet they weren't against Ottawa? It happens. Kraken scored 8 goals on 24 shot attempts ?? Go figure. I try not to do paralysis by analysis. I talk to many young handicappers who can tell you every statistic known to man. But, sometimes I think they can't see the forest for the many, many trees, so still only cash 50% of their wagers. It's what statistic that has proven to be the most important that I think should be emphasized. But just my opinion. And when running bad, I should probably keep my opinions to myself. Lol === Thanks for commenting on my thread. Fellow NYer
@NYBartender Seattle is scoring more, but it's from an inflated shooting % which ranks second overall in the league behind only Buffalo—they don’t generate a ton of shots, ranking at the 5fewest. Very important numbers IMO. Yet they weren't against Ottawa? It happens. Kraken scored 8 goals on 24 shot attempts ?? Go figure. I try not to do paralysis by analysis. I talk to many young handicappers who can tell you every statistic known to man. But, sometimes I think they can't see the forest for the many, many trees, so still only cash 50% of their wagers. It's what statistic that has proven to be the most important that I think should be emphasized. But just my opinion. And when running bad, I should probably keep my opinions to myself. Lol === Thanks for commenting on my thread. Fellow NYer
Yesterday I lost 1 Unit on the Canadian side, & picked up 1 Unit on the Under for a - 15 day. I'll update my YTD record tomorrow.
Believe it or not, I'm going against the Kraken again tonight. Beating the Canadians is nothing to brag about. I feel the Sabres had a good chance to end the Krakens hot streak. I always believed that you shouldn't throw yourself in front of a fast moving train, however all good things must come to an end at some point as well, IMO. So, at this price I'll take my chances
Yesterday I lost 1 Unit on the Canadian side, & picked up 1 Unit on the Under for a - 15 day. I'll update my YTD record tomorrow.
Believe it or not, I'm going against the Kraken again tonight. Beating the Canadians is nothing to brag about. I feel the Sabres had a good chance to end the Krakens hot streak. I always believed that you shouldn't throw yourself in front of a fast moving train, however all good things must come to an end at some point as well, IMO. So, at this price I'll take my chances
Thanks guys. I really appreciate the support. I hope to also put up some decent basketball & what's left of Football plays. You might want to keep an eye out for them.
Thanks guys. I really appreciate the support. I hope to also put up some decent basketball & what's left of Football plays. You might want to keep an eye out for them.
Bruins-Kraken total opened at 6.5 last night. I immediately took the Under. Now I'm seeing 6 flat. Still worth a small wager even at that number. I made the total 6U. Bruins coming back from a west coast swing. Kraken absolutely on FIRE. My bankroll knows this fact, all too well. Would have to be absolutely nuts to bet against them again. But the odds look a little wanky. IMO. Knee-jerk reaction would be to slam the Kraken at + 2 to 1. Draft Kings has the public at 50/50 on wagers, so far. If Kraken takes more public money, it would be a strong indicator of Bruins being the right side. I'll keep the forum posted if this happens.
Jets-Sabres total is being slammed to the Over, by everyone, it seems. It opened at 6.5 - 110. Now it is all the way up to 6.5 - 130 at most sportsbooks. Not seeing the justification for this according to my numbers. My suspicion is that it is due to the fact that the Jets have been putting the biscuit in the basket at a very high rate, in their last few games. When I found a 7 at an out I have, I had to play the Under. Draft Kings had 6.5 + 115 the last I looked. I still think there is value betting Under at that price.
I will be going to MSG to watch the Rangers play tonight. Even though, I have not bet on the game, but will be rooting for the Rangers to win. Still a fan. Will bring my laptop along, so I can watch the Bruins-Kraken games as well. I have been posting plays in appropriate other forums. You might want to check it out, since those plays have been doing better than my hockey wagers, as of late.
Best Of Luck ============= Please Bet Responsibly==================== Let's Go!
Bruins-Kraken total opened at 6.5 last night. I immediately took the Under. Now I'm seeing 6 flat. Still worth a small wager even at that number. I made the total 6U. Bruins coming back from a west coast swing. Kraken absolutely on FIRE. My bankroll knows this fact, all too well. Would have to be absolutely nuts to bet against them again. But the odds look a little wanky. IMO. Knee-jerk reaction would be to slam the Kraken at + 2 to 1. Draft Kings has the public at 50/50 on wagers, so far. If Kraken takes more public money, it would be a strong indicator of Bruins being the right side. I'll keep the forum posted if this happens.
Jets-Sabres total is being slammed to the Over, by everyone, it seems. It opened at 6.5 - 110. Now it is all the way up to 6.5 - 130 at most sportsbooks. Not seeing the justification for this according to my numbers. My suspicion is that it is due to the fact that the Jets have been putting the biscuit in the basket at a very high rate, in their last few games. When I found a 7 at an out I have, I had to play the Under. Draft Kings had 6.5 + 115 the last I looked. I still think there is value betting Under at that price.
I will be going to MSG to watch the Rangers play tonight. Even though, I have not bet on the game, but will be rooting for the Rangers to win. Still a fan. Will bring my laptop along, so I can watch the Bruins-Kraken games as well. I have been posting plays in appropriate other forums. You might want to check it out, since those plays have been doing better than my hockey wagers, as of late.
Best Of Luck ============= Please Bet Responsibly==================== Let's Go!
Looking deeper in the analytics, I guess the fact that Connor Hellebuyck had an awful game against the Wings, in his last game is possibly the reason for the steam on the Over in the Jets-Sabres game. I think it should be a non factor, as every goal-keeper is entitled to have an off night. We'll see.
Looking deeper in the analytics, I guess the fact that Connor Hellebuyck had an awful game against the Wings, in his last game is possibly the reason for the steam on the Over in the Jets-Sabres game. I think it should be a non factor, as every goal-keeper is entitled to have an off night. We'll see.
As much as I hate to lay chalk on any wager, I still think the Devils would beat the Ducks 8 times out of 10, even on the road. Ducks have given up better than 40 + shots on goal in their last 3 starts. Their ability of stopping opposing teams from scoring is little to none. Why should that change tonight? I'm betting it won't. If New Jersey can't win this game in regulation, I'll be very surprised. Vanecek is listed as their starting goalie, which will also be a plus.
Devils -180 Regulation ===== Bet at Heritage Sports
Best Of Luck Please Bet Responsibly ================ Let's Go!
As much as I hate to lay chalk on any wager, I still think the Devils would beat the Ducks 8 times out of 10, even on the road. Ducks have given up better than 40 + shots on goal in their last 3 starts. Their ability of stopping opposing teams from scoring is little to none. Why should that change tonight? I'm betting it won't. If New Jersey can't win this game in regulation, I'll be very surprised. Vanecek is listed as their starting goalie, which will also be a plus.
Devils -180 Regulation ===== Bet at Heritage Sports
Best Of Luck Please Bet Responsibly ================ Let's Go!
Bruins - 140 Glad to take a team that wins + 90% of their home games, off a loss, with revenge at less than 7.5 to 5 odds any day of the week. I think it's worth noting that the team they lost to was red-hot, on the road, and catching the Bruins coming off a west coast road swing. Perfect set-up for a loss. Should be a different story tonight.
Knights - 125 Vegas catching Oilers coming off 2 wins off of the bottom feeders of their division. Tonight, the Oilers face division leaders well rested at home. I look for Knights to end Oiler's 2 game winning streak.
Best Of Luck Please Bet Responsibly ==================== Let's Go!
Bruins - 140 Glad to take a team that wins + 90% of their home games, off a loss, with revenge at less than 7.5 to 5 odds any day of the week. I think it's worth noting that the team they lost to was red-hot, on the road, and catching the Bruins coming off a west coast road swing. Perfect set-up for a loss. Should be a different story tonight.
Knights - 125 Vegas catching Oilers coming off 2 wins off of the bottom feeders of their division. Tonight, the Oilers face division leaders well rested at home. I look for Knights to end Oiler's 2 game winning streak.
Best Of Luck Please Bet Responsibly ==================== Let's Go!
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