Oilers vs Stars Prop Picks and Best Bets: Lindell Sacrifices the Body for Dallas

Prop bet #1: Lindell Over 2.5 blocked shots

I’d like to take credit for this prop angle, but it was brought to my attention by a viewer on Covers’ Puck Prop release show on Thursday and a bet I’m hopping on for Game 2. 

Esa Lindell will see a lot of Evan Bouchard and his shot-happy ways tonight. Bouchard took nine shots in Game 1 and had five blocked, with most of those by Lindell, who finished the game with a team-high four blocks. He plays on Bouchard’s side at 5-on-5 and is the better blocked-shot option than Chris Tanev at a better number and a better price.

Lindell is getting massive minutes as the Dallas Stars are still skating with five defensemen thanks to Alex Petrovic seeing every fourth shift. The Dallas rearguard is playing 37% of the minutes and gets more blocking opportunities in this series than vs. Colorado, in large part due to Bouchard and a shot-first approach from the Edmonton Oilers blueline. 

Lindell is paying a solid +135 for three or more blocks, and with overtime quite possible again tonight, there could be extra minutes to hit the Over. 

Esa Lindell: Over 2.5 blocked shots (+135 at BET99)

Prop bet #2: Skinner Over 24.5 saves

I needed overtime to save me on Stuart Skinner’s Over 24.5 saves in Game 1, but with the Stars trailing in the series and the team passing up plenty of shooting opportunities in the opener, this looks like a better 60-minute Over tonight at -130.

The Edmonton blueline also blocked a staggering 17 shots in Game 1, with the forwards contributing another seven. Dallas left plenty of shots on the table and is now down 1-0 in the series and does not want to begin a second series 0-2 on home ice. A heavier-shot mentality is likely today. 

Dallas put up 31 shots on net after dropping the opener to Colorado in the second round, and a 10+ SOG first period would go a long way to getting the Over 24.5 saves. If Skinner can hit 11 or 12 saves in the first period, thanks to a motivated Dallas start, it could be a sweat-free Over and worth the 30 points of tax. 

Stuart Skinner: Over 24.5 saves (-130 at BET99)

Prop bet #3: Robertson Under 0.5 assists

The Dallas offense and its lines have been in a blender since Roope Hintz went down. There’s been a lot of experimenting and shuffling while the right fit hasn’t really been found. Hintz is questionable again for Game 2, and I’m not sure how healthy he is, but Jason Robertson is paying -130 on his Under 0.5 assists, and it’s tough to pass up.

The forward’s assist market has ballooned thanks to a great series vs. Colorado, where he had seven helpers in six games. However, he had an assist in just one game vs. the Golden Knights in seven games, and I think his price has gotten too high for a shoot-first player who hasn’t looked great with new linemates.

The -130 Under price is implying around a 53/54% chance of winning but I’m confident it’s better than that in what is projected to be another low-scoring game.

The Edmonton penalty kill has been the best in the playoffs, while Stuart Skinner has held his own since returning. I think another 2-2 game of 3-1 (either side) is in the cards tonight, and Robertson Under 0.5 assists at -130 is my favorite point prop today as Dallas has plenty of options on offense outside of the top line. 

Jason Robertson: Under 0.5 assists (-130 at BET99)