Last night’s away loss to the Minnesota Twins was the seventh consecutive loss from the visitors’ dugout for the reigning World Series Champion Texas Rangers.
My Rangers vs Twins prediction for the second game of their three-game series expects Rangers starter Michael Lorenzen to get the best of Twins righty Chris Paddack, when they meet on Saturday, May 25.
Read on for my MLB picks.
Rangers vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Rangers moneyline (+110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Texas Rangers came out on the short end of the stick in Friday night’s opener against the Minnesota Twins. They scored the early runs and enjoyed solid pitching throughout, but came up short on the lumber end and left Target Field with their seventh-consecutive road loss.
The Rangers’ offense has plated only 11 runs across their last five away matchups, which is strange because they score the sixth-most away runs in baseball. The scoring woes are mainly due to their .243 average with runners in scoring position (RISP), but that could change today against Twins righty Chris Paddack.
Paddack is primarily a four-seam, straight changeup hurler with a decent slider, terrific command, and is striking out a shade over 11 hitters per nine at Target Field. He also serves up nearly two bombs per nine at home and meets a Texas lineup with a low strikeout rate (20.5%) that mashes four-seamers.
The Twins lineup has also struggled to score runs. They’ve plated 21 runs across their past five, but 10 of those runs were in one game against the Nationals. The Twinkies hit only .233 with RISP (2-10 on Friday), and their high strikeout rate (23.4%) is a good matchup today for Rangers junk-balling righty Michael Lorenzen.
Lorenzen has struggled with command issues this season, but he’s managed to pitch five innings or more in all seven of his starts. He issues a tick above four walks per nine, but he’s been able to keep the ball in the yard thanks to a 45% groundball rate.
Lorenzen has stymied left-handed bats this season with a four-seam/changeup combo and could see as many as five lefty bats today. Lorenzen is 2-1 on the road, and I expect his good fortune against lefties to continue today. He’ll pitch deep into this one, and the Rangers offense will score enough runs and end their seven-game away losing streak.
Rangers vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Rangers moneyline
Chris Paddack Under 4.5 strikeouts
I like the Rangers to win today, primarily because I don’t expect Paddack to enjoy anywhere close to the 11 strikeouts per nine, he’s spun thus far at Target Field.
It’s no coincidence that Paddack clears his strikeout prop against strikeout-prone clubs like the Mariners, Dodgers, and White Sox. He didn’t clear his number at home against the Yankees’ keen eyes, and he won’t clear his number against the Rangers either.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Twins odds
Rangers vs Twins live odds
Rangers vs Twins opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-182) | Minnesota - 1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Texas (+110) | Minnesota (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Rangers vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis
- The moneyline markets are moving slightly the Twins' way. Minnesota is trading at -130 to -135 from the lowest opening price (-125).
- Texas moneyline markets opened as low as +100, but after last night's loss, are trading as high as +110.
- The total opened at 8.5 runs and we’ve seen the most movement on Over markets, with odds as high as -118 from a -110 opener.
- DraftKings reports 77% of the bets are on the Twins, but the big bets (61%) are on the Rangers' moneyline.
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Rangers vs Twins trend
Minnesota is 2-3 across its last five at Target Field. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Twins
Rangers vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSW, BSNO |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Michael Lorenzen (2-3, 3.61 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Chris Paddack (4-2, 4.47 ERA) |
Rangers vs Twins latest injuries
Rangers vs Twins weather
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