Yankees vs Red Sox Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Judge Won't Be Tamed

Prop bet #1: Marcus Stroman Over 2.5 earned runs allowed

Marcus Stroman’s 2.82 ERA would be the lowest it has been in in a full season other than a 27-inning cup of coffee back in 2015. A peak under the hood reveals that not everything is running as smoothly as it initially seems.

His 4.47 xERA, 4.79 FIP, and 4.57 xFIP all indicate regression. You can poke holes in any single number individually but when all three numbers are in a similar ballpark and are indicating a similar picture, it’s clear the actual ERA is the one that is off the mark. 

The 33-year-old has been fortunate to run a low .243 BABIP well off his .296 career average. He’s also stranded an irregular number of runners — his 83.3% left-on-base percentage is nearly 11 points higher than his 72.4% career average and is unsustainable. 

He’s throwing softer than ever, averaging 90.1 mph on his sinker. That’s a new low for his most-used pitch (thrown 37.3% of the time) and is well off his 92.3 mph career average. His cutter (88.1 mph, down from 89.9 mph career average), splitter (83.5 mph down from 86.1 mph), and changeup (82.1 mph down from 84.6) are similarly slowing down. 

Stroman is striking out fewer batters than is typical (17.4% K%) while setting a new high in BB% (10.2%). This is not a recipe for success. The Boston Red Sox have hit right-handed pitching well this year, with a 104 wRC+ and a .323 wOBA. They’ve been on fire lately with the second-best wRC+ (138) and wOBA (.373) against righties across the last 15 days. I’ll bet on Boston tagging Stroman for some much-needed regression.

Marcus Stroman prop: Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases

Aaron Judge has been a man-possessed this season. The slugger has amassed a 207 wRC+ while hitting for average (.300 BA) and power (.381 ISO) alike. He leads the league in HR (25), RBI (63), BB (57), SLG (.681), and OPS (1.108) while ranking second in doubles (22) and OBP (.427). 

What a sheer masterclass. I expect the master to be on his game again for Sunday Night Baseball and am targeting his total bases prop. The bookmakers have set this at 1.5 without egregious odds to the Over. I’ll snap that up considering he's averaging double that number (3.0) of total bases across his last 10 games.  

I think we’re getting a discount here as Juge’s numbers have been suppressed at Fenway Park in his career. Across 206 plate appearances in his rival’s ballpark, he’s put forth a measly .189 BA and .694 OPS. 

While those numbers are notable, Judge has been too good of a hitter this season for me to value past performance over current dominance. He’s posting the best numbers of his career alongside his dominant 2022 season when he won the 2022 AL MVP. 

Aaron Judge prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI

Boston outfielder Tyler O’Neill has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. He’s played in 100 games in a season just once in his six-year career, and perhaps uncoincidentally, that was by far his most productive campaign. 

The year in question is 2021, when he set highs in wRC+ (143), BA (.286), OBP (.352), SLG (.560), wOBA (.389), ISO (.274), and essentially any other metric you choose. What’s notable about 2024, his first in Boston, is that he’s performed at a similar level while being a mainstay in the lineup. 

His line isn’t far off from that monstrous 2021 — the outfielder’s wRC+ (131), OBP (.348), SLG (.500), wOBA (.362), and ISO (.247) are all second-best in his career. When he’s not injured, he performs best. Right now, he’s healthy and is mashing, so I’m buying his Overs. 

The bookmakers have set the 28-year-old’s hits + runs + RBI prop at 1.5 for Sunday Night Baseball. O’Neill has been on a tear lately, averaging 2.1 hits + runs + RBI over his last 10 games while going Over this number in five of the last six in which he's started. 

O’Neill has been making great contact, ranking in the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate (49.5%) and the 96th percentile in barrel rate (16.8%). He swings hard (89th percentile bat speed at 75 mph) and has been barreling pitches with regularity, so I see a lot of reasons to buy. 

His main weakness has been that he swings and misses too much (eighth percentile whiff rate, third percentile K%). Those concerns are mitigated in a matchup against Stroman and his laughable 8.1% swinging strike rate. I don't see this being a difficult matchup for O'Neill. 

Tyler O'Neill prop: Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-110 at BetMGM)