Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: The Abrams Breakout Season is Real

Prop bet #1: Hayes Under 0.5 hits

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 8.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central standings, but it still feels like the division is still wide open. But if the Buccos want to make a move in the second half, they will need to do a better job producing runs.

That means getting better at-bats from their young core, including third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who is mired in an ugly slump. The Gold Glove winner is hitting just .130 with a .331 OPS over his last 14 games, dropping his batting average to .226 and his OPS to .595 for the season.

To make matters worse, Hayes will not be happy to see Cincinnati Reds starter Hunter Greene. The 24-year-old fireballer is having his breakout season with a 3.13 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .196 expected batting average. That ranks in the 93rd percentile.

Greene is also coming off a dominant performance against this same Pirates team, shutting them out on two hits while striking out nine over 6 1/3 innings. Hayes went 0-for-2 with a hit-by-pitch in that game, dropping him to just 1-for-9 with four strikeouts in his career vs. Greene.

Hayes has gone hitless in seven of his last 14 games, including four of the last five. In this matchup, at this price, he looks like a great bet to have another 0-fer.

Ke'Bryan Hayes prop: Under 0.5 hits (+155 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Lugo to record a win

It's insane to think the Miami Marlins qualified for the postseason just last year because they are really leaning into the Bottom Feeders moniker in 2024.

The Marlins enter tonight’s matchup against the upstart Kansas City Royals with a National League-worst 27-51 record and a minus-124 run differential. This roster has bigger holes than a sinking ship, and the lineup has scored more runs than only the Chicago White Sox.

Miami ranks 18th in batting average and 28th in OPS and wRC+ when facing right-handers this season, and they face a solid one tonight in Seth Lugo.

The veteran right-hander has had a career resurgence with the Royals and while he arguably hasn’t been as good as his 2.42 ERA indicates, he’s been more than good enough to deal with this Marlins lineup. 

Lugo has used his massive pitch arsenal to keep hitters off balance. His four-seam fastball and curveball have been his most effective pitches with opponents hitting just .159 and .143 against them, respectively. 

The Marlins counter Lugo with Yonny Chirinos. The 30-year-old right-hander is making his second start of the season. Chirinos has spent most of his time in the minor leagues since 2021. He’s pitched in 23 games (11 starts) since 2022, pitching to a 4.92 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP during that period.

Chirinos held the Cardinals to just two runs over five innings last time out, but he surrendered eight hits and was lucky to escape with limited damage. He won’t be as lucky against a scrappy Royals lineup.

Lugo leads the American League with 10 wins, and I’m betting he extends that lead with another win tonight.

Seth Lugo prop: To record a win (+110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Abrams Over 1.5 total bases

Sure, trading Juan Soto was tough for the Washington Nationals, but at least they have the comfort of knowing they have a future star in CJ Abrams. 

The 23-year-old, do-it-all shortstop is having a breakout season, hitting .275 with a .827 OPS, 12 home runs, 39 RBI, and 13 stolen bases, and he is locked in.

The ball must look the size of a grapefruit. He has collected at least one knock in 14 of his last 15 games, hitting .281 with a 1.133 OPS, and he’s taken it to the next level lately. He has four multi-hit games in his last five,  good for a .478 average and 1.283 OPS, which includes five extra-base hits.

That has made Abrams a total bases machine. He’s gone Over 1.5 total bases in four of his last five and 11 times during this 15-game stretch. You can probably guess I’m backing him to keep it going when he digs in against San Diego Padres prospect Adam Mazur.

The 23-year-old is making just his fifth career start and his adjustment to the big leagues hasn’t been an easy one.

Mazur has been relying a lot on his fastball and, unfortunately for him, opponents are crushing it for a .290 expected batting average. Overall, the right-hander is pitching to a 5.25 expected ERA while surrendering .269 xBA. Not surprisingly, left-handed hitters like Abrams are doing most of the damage, getting to Mazur for a .344 average and a 1.054 OPS.

This matchup sets up very well for Abrams and I’m more than willing to fire on the Over for his total bases at this price.

CJ Abrams prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at DraftKings)