Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Montgomery Gets Back on Track vs. Marlins

Prop bet #1: Walk in the park

Walker Buehler was one of the best pitchers in the world until undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in 2022. Buehler made his first start in over 20 months on May 6 and looked a bit shaky, but that was to be expected after such a long layoff. He also looked off in his next outing but then figured things out in his last start, allowing just three hits and fanning seven batters in six innings of shutout ball.

Coincidentally, that game came against the Cincinnati Reds, who he will face again tonight. The Reds are just 28th in the majors in strikeout rate (25.6%), with that number ticking up to 27.6% against righties like Buehler. With the Over 5.5 strikeouts for Buehler paying out at plus money, grab it as he gets one step closer to recapturing his previous form. 

Walker Buehler prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+118 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Bryce as nice

Bryce Harper is one of the best hitters in the majors, and he's been red-hot this month, slashing .347/.448/.653. It's no surprise that the two-time NL MVP has a history of mashing at hitter-friendly Coors Field, where he has slugged .615 with 14 doubles and seven dingers in 34 games.

Today, the Rockies will send struggling veteran Dakota Hudson to the mound. Hudson has a 5.89 ERA through eight starts, and he ranks in the bottom 20th in hard-hit rate. Harper will have the platoon advantage in this matchup, and he has gone an incredible 7-8 at the plate against Hudson in his career.

While there are plenty of hitting props to like for Harper, my one concern is that he won't see many balls come down the pipe towards him. Hudson has terrible control and has issued 24 walks in 33 innings over his last seven starts. Harper is routinely among the MLB leaders in walks, and he has been given a whopping five free passes in 13 plate appearances against Hudson.

Bryce Harper prop: Over 0.5 walks (-150 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Full Monty

Jordan Montgomery has struggled this year, pitching to a 4.98 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP through 34 1/3 innings. That said, the veteran had a solid 3.34 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP across 367 innings over the last two seasons.

 I'll trust that larger sample size, especially with Montgomery benefitting from a terrific matchup tonight. The Diamondbacks are hosting the Marlins, who are just 28th in the majors in runs per game (3.77), with that number dipping to 3.26 on the road.

Miami is just 29th in the majors in OPS (.639) and has been even worse against southpaws like Montgomery, with an OPS of .597. While Montgomery doesn't make batters miss, he also doesn't give up much hard contact, and he should be able to limit a low-scoring Marlins lineup today.

Jordan Montgomery prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (+120 at bet365)