The Cincinnati Reds (21-30) had a surprise for the Los Angeles Dodgers (33-20) in Game 1 of the series on Friday when they came away with a 9-6 victory.
According to MLB odds, the L.A. is -160 on the moneyline to get swift revenge in Game 2, and my Dodgers vs. Reds predictions don’t think they’ll light up the scoreboard to do so.
The total is set at 9, and I’m going to attack that with my best bet in an intriguing starting pitching matchup. Check out my MLB picks for Saturday, May 25.
Dodgers vs Reds prediction
My best bet
Under 9 (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Saturday’s matchup brings a fascinating starting pitching duel between Walker Buehler and Hunter Greene. With two attention-grabbing names on the mound, I’m targeting the Under as my best bet.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been pleased with Buehler’s return after he missed nearly two full years after Tommy John surgery in 2022. The star right-hander will still need time before he’s fully ramped up, but the results thus far have been plenty fine. He’s put forth a 4.05 ERA and 3.47 xERA across 13 ⅓ IP in three starts to stabilize a rotation that’s been rocked by injuries.
The 29-year-old was at his best in his last start against these very same Cincinnati Reds, holding them scoreless across six innings while striking out seven, walking none, and allowing only three hits. One can easily imagine another effective outing against a lineup that has struggled against right-handed pitching, ranking 29th in wRC+ (79) and 28th in wOBA (.286).
On the other side, Greene gets the call for the home team. The flamethrower is always a treat to watch as he averages 98.1 mph on his fastball and sports a career 30% K-rate. He ranks second in Stuff+ (127) among qualified starters, slotting in behind only Pittsburgh Pirates rookie sensation Jared Jones.
Greene is having the best campaign of his young career with new lows in ERA (3.22), xERA (2.65), and FIP (.330). One area he’s been able to improve is the quality of contact he allows — his barre rate (4.1%) ranks in the 88th percentile and is nearly five percentage points below 2023’s number (9%), and his hard-hit rate (32.4%) ranks in the 84th percentile.
The 24-year-old faced the Dodgers in his last start and held them to two earned runs on four hits and two walks while striking out eight in just over six innings of work. L.A.’s lineup may be star-studded, but it has been nothing special lately. The Dodgers rank just 24th in wRC+ (89) and 24th in wOBA (.290).
Dodgers vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9
Under 0.5 first-inning runs
Walker Buehler Over 5.5 strikeouts
The Dodgers are 9-14 O/U on the road and I’ll bet on that trend continuing on Saturday given the strong starting pitching matchup. They’ve cashed the Under in two straight Buehler starts while the Reds have gone 0-3-1 O/U in Greene’s last four outings.
Buehler averaged 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings in his career and while his 22.8% K-rate so far this year isn’t quite back to normal (26.9% career average), his velocity is holding steady and the punchouts will come sooner or later. He notched seven Ks last time against the Reds, who have the second-highest K-rate (27.6%) against righties.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Reds odds
Dodgers vs Reds live odds
Dodgers vs Reds opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -149 | Cincinnati +137
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -1.5 (+107) | Cincinnati +1.5 (-118)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-101) | Under 9 (-111)
Dodgers vs Reds spread and Over/Under analysis
- These two teams have played each other evenly in recent memory. They’re 5-5 each across the last 10 meetings with Cincinnati being +137 or higher in every game that it won.
- Cincinnati has cashed its team total Under in 10 of its last 11 games. The Reds have hit the full game total Under in 20 of their last 35 games overall.
- Cincinnati is 14-19 O/U against right-handed starting pitchers.
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Dodgers vs Reds trend
Los Angeles has cashed the Under in 11 of its last 17 away games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Reds
Dodgers vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (1-1, 4.05 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Hunter Greene (2-2, 3.22 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Reds latest injuries
Dodgers vs Reds weather
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