The Arizona Diamondbacks look to bounce back after an iffy start to the season as they head to T-Mobile Park for Game 1 of a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners.
Despite early-season struggles and being on the road, the MLB odds have the Diamondbacks as a moneyline favorite as they try to improve in the NL West standings.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs. Mariners predictions on Friday, April 26.
Diamondbacks vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
After earning two All-Star appearances in his first two seasons in the majors, Julio Rodriguez hasn’t been quite as dominant in his third season, but is still one of the scariest bats in baseball.
Calling it a down stretch for Rodriguez through the first 25 games of the season would be an overstatement, with the 6-foot-3, 228-pound slugger still first on the Seattle Mariners in hits (27), second in batting average (.276), and third in total bases (33).
As he looks to flash a little more of that power he’s been known for going forward, he’s got a tantalizing matchup with Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen. While Gallen, an All-Star last season, is off to a strong start to the year, the 23-year-old Rodriguez can strike fear into even the best pitchers’ hearts.
Gallen only uses three pitches in his arsenal more than 10% of the time The Arizona Diamondbacks look to bounce back after an iffy start to the season as they head to T-Mobile Park for Game 1 of a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners.
Even with his slower start to the season, Rodriguez is batting .355 against four-seamers this year and that’s after putting up a .544 SLG against them last season. He hits four-seamers hard, and the numbers say Gallen will go to it over half the time against Rodriguez.
When he does get away from it, it’ll likely be for that knuckle curve, a pitch that Rodriguez hasn’t seen in the majors yet. But it shouldn’t scare him with the success he’s had against breaking balls in the past.
Last season he had nearly as many home runs off breaking balls (13) as he did fastballs (14) and added 15 doubles. His slugging percentage was actually better against breaking balls (.489) than fastballs (.479) last season.
Gallen might actually want to stay away from his slider against Rodriguez, with the Mariners star hitting it better than any other pitch this season. Rodriguez’s highest average (.421) and SLG (.474) this season have come against the slider, and we already know how much he loves to hit breaking balls.
Diamondbacks vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 total bases
Lourdes Gurriel Over 0.5 hit
On the other side of this matchup, Seattle could find itself in trouble with Emerson Hancock taking the mound. The 24-year-old has been iffy through four starts with a 6.10 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, and only 6.5 K/9.
Leaning on his four-seamer (30.2%), sinker (29.3%), and changeup (22.1%), the Dbacks’ two hottest bats are in for a field day against him. Ketel Marte is batting over .350 against all three pitches this season, while Lourdes Gurriel isn’t far behind with a .300 average or better against Hancock’s go-to pitches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Mariners odds
Diamondbacks vs Mariners live odds
Diamondbacks vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 (+130) | Seattle +1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Arizona -130 | Seattle +110
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-125) | Under 7 (+105)
Diamondbacks vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Diamondbacks opened as -130 to -137 moneyline favorites, with most books settling in at -130 ahead of opening pitch.
- Despite being favored, Arizona is 12-14 on the season and just third in the NL West, while Seattle is first in the AL West at 13-12.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 7 but has since come up to 7.5, with some books offering the Under at plus money.
- No team has been a better Under bet this season than the Mariners at 17-7-1. Arizona has been solid, too, at 13-12-1.
Diamondbacks vs Mariners trend
The Mariners have hit the moneyline in 50 of their last 82 games (+8.75 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Mariners
Diamondbacks vs Mariners game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 4-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Zac Gallen (3-1, 3.00 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Emerson Hancock (2-2, 6.10 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Mariners latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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