The Chicago Cubs are off to a roaring start this season, and they’re set to have ace Justin Steele back on the mound tonight against the San Diego Padres.
My Padres vs. Cubs predictions break down the latest MLB odds, which have this battle as dead even, as San Diego boasts a loaded lineup after the big-time trade for Luis Arraez.
Check out my MLB picks as two playoff hopefuls collide in this May 6 matchup.
Padres vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It’s a credit to the Chicago Cubs that they’ve motored to a 21-14 mark despite Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki all missing time — and now the cavalry is on the way back, starting with Steele’s second outing of 2024 tonight.
Steele limped out of Chicago’s season opener against the Texas Rangers with a hamstring injury and hasn’t been seen on the bump since. But the lefty remains a game-changer. He had six strikeouts through 4 2/3 innings in that first start, and I see his return giving the hosts a jolt here.
The Cubs are 12-4 at Wrigley Field and picked up a pair of victories this weekend to win their series against the Brewers. I like that form to carry over tonight and and I’m grabbing the Chicago moneyline against the visiting San Diego Padres.
I’m also expecting run support for Steele, who went 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while finishing fifth in NL Cy Young voting in 2023.
The Cubs have scored five or more runs in three of their last four contests — and, though San Diego starter Yu Darvish pitched five scoreless innings last Tuesday against the Cincinnati Reds, he had given up at least three runs in his three prior starts.
The Padres edged the three-game series between these teams in April, but this feels like a good spot for the hosts to get some payback while keeping the heat on the Brewers at the top of the NL Central.
Padres vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 RBI
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 total bases
Nico Hoerner has eight hits in his last five games, boosting his batting average to .282 in the process. Hoerner had a dominant weekend, with three RBI against the Brewers, including a home run in Saturday’s win. I see him being at the center of the Cubs’ scoring again today.
Meanwhile, Luis Arraez announced himself on his Padres debut with a perfect 4-for-4 outing on Saturday from the lead-off spot — and there’s no option of pitching around him with Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado on deck.
His pedigree at the plate is no secret after posting a .354 batting average with the Miami Marlins in 2023. If Steele takes a few innings to hit his stride, Arraez is a candidate to cash in, especially after mashing 30 or more doubles in each of the last two seasons. And while Arraez does fare worse against lefties than he does vs. righties, he still hit .326 off southpaws last season and is batting .276 against them in 2024.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Cubs odds
Padres vs Cubs live odds
Padres vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-200) | Chicago -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: San Diego -105 | Chicago -115
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)
Padres vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Dating back to last year, the Cubs have won 23 of their last 34 games at Wrigley Field, including series wins over the Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers.
- The Padres won four in a row before Sunday's 11-4 loss to Arizona. They’re still just 18-19 overall and lost five of their last six games in April.
- Though the Over is 4-1 in the Padres’ past five games, the Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams — and a line of 7.5, and even 7 at some sportsbooks, suggests the pitchers are going to have the upper hand.
- The Cubs have allowed three runs or fewer in four of their last seven outings.
Padres vs Cubs trend
The Cubs have been happy to pile up victories in low-scoring battles, hitting the Under in 19 of their last 30 contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cubs
Padres vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Monday, 5-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, MARQ |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Yu Darvish (1-1, 3.40 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (0-0, 1.93 ERA) |
Padres vs Cubs latest injuries
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