The San Francisco Giants will attempt to avoid a series sweep when they meet the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of their four-game series on May 6.
My Giants vs. Phillies predictions are locked in on the Under, and I expect to see pitchers keep the bats quiet in PA. I break down my thoughts more in the MLB picks below.
Giants vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
San Francisco Giants rookie Mason Black makes his long-awaited MLB debut in the stadium where his MLB dreams began.
The Scranton, PA native checks all the boxes: He whiffs a tick under 10 per nine with a low walk rate and is 2-1 through six AAA starts with a 1.01 ERA and 0.90 WHIP across 26 2/3 frames.
Black also serves up less than .50 home runs per nine, which will be helpful against the Philadelphia Phillies, who've blasted the second-most HR in the National League and fifth-most in baseball.
The Phillies bats have been booming in this series — plating 23 runs across the first three games — but Black has good stuff and has the edge, as Philly has only seen him pitch on tablets.
Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler has been electric this season at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies ace might be 1-2 at home, but he’s surrendered only five earned runs across 24 1/3 frames and meets an offense that struggles against righties and doesn’t hit at all on the road.
The Phillies' lumber is due for some regression after such a strong three games. Black is an unknown commodity as far as Philadelphia is concerned. The kid has good command, keeps the ball in the yard, and can blow his heater by these Phillies bats.
Wheeler has been lights out at home, which should continue today against a stagnant Giants offense that has averaged only three runs across their past five road contests.
This game has low-scoring affair written all over it today.
Giants vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 RBI
Phillies OF Brandon Marsh has raked right-handed pitching throughout his career and has been hot at the Bank. The veteran OF slashes .304/.349/.570/.918 against righties and has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six games at Citizens Bank.
There won't be a lot of offense in this game, but Marsh will supply some.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Phillies odds
Giants vs Phillies live odds
Giants vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco + 1.5 (-115) | Philadelphia -1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: San Francisco +170 | Phillies -205
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-102) | Under 8.0 (-118)
Giants vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Money has come in on Philadelphia, with the Phillies ML trading from -190 to -205 from openers as low as -190.
- Giants’ backers can find markets trading ML odds of +155 to +170.
- The total has stayed the same since the 8.0-run opener. Over markets offer odds of -105 to -115, while Under markets offer prices of -105 to -120.
Giants vs Phillies trend
The Giants have hit the game total Under in 54 of their last 85 games (+21.55 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Phillies
Giants vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Monday, 5-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, NBCSP |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Mason Black MLB Debut |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (3-3, 1.91 ERA) |
Giants vs Phillies latest injuries
Giants vs Phillies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
