The Boston Bruins visit the Florida Panthers for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals tonight. Boston will look to exact revenge after being upset in last year's playoffs, but my Bruins vs. Panthers predictions aren't entirely bullish on the visitors, at least for tonight.
Boston won all four meetings between the two teams during the regular season, but Florida wrapped up its Round 1 matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games. It took the Bruins all seven to send the Toronto Maple Leafs packing.
With Florida a huge favorite to win the series and Game 1, here are our free NHL picks for the series opener on Monday, May 6.
Bruins vs Panthers prediction
My best bet
Panthers 3-way moneyline (-103 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
It’s a quick turnaround for the Boston Bruins following their Game 7 overtime win on Saturday, while the Florida Panthers have been resting and preparing for a week. The Panthers are a huge uptick in class for the Bruins, and it’s also worth noting the Toronto Maple Leafs dished out the most hits (346) in Round 1. It was anything but a leisurely seven-game series for the Bs.
I anticipate Boston's offense will continue to struggle after being held to just four goals over the final three games against Toronto. This bodes poorly as the Panthers finished the regular season tied for the fewest goals against per game.
Additionally, I value the gap in 5-on-5 play favoring the Cats. Florida ranked second in Corsi For percentage (55.7%) and fifth in expected goals percentage (54.3%) during the regular season, while Boston ranked 24th (47.0%) and 18th (50.0%), respectively.
The Bruins lack the lineup and scoring depth to go toe-to-toe with the Panthers, and No. 1 goalie Jeremy Swayman has negative regression ahead of his .950 postseason save percentage. A splash of statistical correction also looms for Boston's special teams. The Bruins posted a 35.3 power-play percentage and 95.2 penalty-kill percentage in Round 1 after recording 22.2% and 82.5% marks during the regular season.
I also expect to see Cats starter Sergei Bobrovsky build off his 31-save Game 5 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning. Bobrovsky was only so-so through the first four games of Round 1, with an .874 SV%, so stopping 31 of 32 shots to eliminate the Bolts is encouraging.
It’ll be a sunset in Sunrise for the Bruins in Game 1.
Bruins vs Panthers same-game parlay (SGP)
Panthers 3-way moneyline
Under 5.5
Aleksander Barkov Over 0.5 points
Boston will need to play conservatively to compete in this series, and while I expect a statistical decline ahead for Swayman, I’m talking about him saving 91% of the shots he faces instead of 95%. Additionally, as discussed, I’m primarily backing the Panthers in regulation because I don’t anticipate the Bruins scoring enough to win.
Florida swapped its lines in Sunday’s practice, and Aleksander Barkov centered Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe. There’s no guarantee they stick, but all five of Barkov’s points in Round 1 came at home, and he was on the ice for the most expected goals (7.45) across those three games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bruins vs Panthers odds
Bruins vs Panthers live odds
Bruins vs Panthers opening odds
- Puck line: Boston +1.5 (-190) | Florida -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Boston +140 | Florida -165
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-105) | Under 5.5 (-115)
Bruins vs Panthers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a notable move to this moneyline through bet365, with Florida opening at -165 and trading at -180 as of Monday morning.
- The adjustment hasn’t been as significant at Pinnacle, and FanDuel has an outlier -166 price for the Panthers.
- This total has also seen action to the Under 5.5 at bet365, and the odds have moved from an opening -115 to -125 as of Monday morning.
- There’s potential that a 5.0 total is tested with the vig already steep on the Under 5.5 across the board.
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Bruins vs Panthers trend
Boston has been held to a single regulation goal in three consecutive games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Panthers.
Bruins vs Panthers game info
| Location: | Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL |
| Date: | Monday, 5-6-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Bruins vs Panthers latest injuries
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