After multiple blown leads and a late-game rally, the Chicago Cubs lost to the St. Louis Cardinals last night, 7-6.
It was a loss that continued a rough stretch of baseball for the Cubs. Chicago has now just won one game in its last five and heads into the rubber match of this series on a three-game losing streak. Meanwhile, it's a different story for St. Louis, which is playing some of its best baseball of the season as the winner of four straight. It will go for the series sweep tonight.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free MLB picks and Cardinals vs Cubs predictions for Sunday, May 26.
Cubs vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Cardinals F5 moneyline (-140 at bet365)
My analysis
This Chicago Cubs team is just finding ways to lose right now. It had a decisive pitching advantage last night and it showed for much of the game as Chicago took a lead to the eighth inning. However, they would give up four runs in that inning and continue a recent trend of losing games.
I'm making the St. Louis Cardinals my best bet tonight, but my most considerable edge is early in the game. I want to avoid a Cardinals bullpen that has been unpredictable lately, and this is the best way to target this pitching mismatch. I'm grabbing the Cardinals' first five innings moneyline as my best bet.
At 34 years old, Sonny Gray continues to be as effective as ever and will take the mound for the Cardinals tonight. This is one of his better starts to the season in a few years, as he'll enter this matchup with impressive metrics and the lowest expected ERA of his career. I struggle to figure out how this Cubs lineup has much success against him.
The issue for Chicago is two-fold. One, surprisingly, is that the Cubs have struggled to hit balls hard. It's a lineup that has a lot of power on paper but it's unperformed, ranking near the bottom of baseball in critical metrics such as barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Gray, whose strength is inducing soft contact, will make this worse, as he again ranks in the Top 20% of baseball in that metric.
The second issue for the Cubs is making contact at all. Gray has long been a strikeout pitcher, and this year is no different as he ranks in the 74th percentile of whiff rate but is even better in K rate. That's another issue for a Chicago team that strikes out at a high clip and ranks in the bottom portion of baseball in whiff rate.
I like the Cardinals to scratch across enough runs to get the job done here. It shouldn't take much. I would play this down to -150.
Cubs vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Cardinals F5 moneyline
Cubs team total Under 0.5
I will use this opportunity to fade the Cubs offense more, and I mean really fade them.
Chicago will be the third team in the season that Gray has faced, ranking in the Bottom 10 in the whiff rate in baseball. In the last two, he has allowed a combined zero earned runs over 13 innings, and the Cardinals allowed one total run in both matchups.
If Gray can go deep in this game, there's no reason why the Cardinals can't completely shut out the Cubs tonight. There's certainly a better chance than the 12% implied probability. Alternatively, you can also take Gray Under 2.5 earned runs allowed, which looks good down to -162.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Cubs vs Cardinals live odds
Cubs vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 | St. Louis -1.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +119 | St. Louis -129
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Cubs vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- We've seen sharp movement to the Under. This total opened at 8.5 and is set to close around 7.5. As of Sunday morning, the Under took up to 70% of the bets.
- It's been a rough run for the Cubs, who will enter this matchup as losers of seven of their last 10 games. Conversely, the Cardinals have been heading in an opposite direction as winners of eight of their last 10, a run that has netted bettors over six units.
- The Cardinals have won the last two head-to-head meetings between these two sides, a rare feat in this series recently. Before these last two wins, St. Louis had lost six consecutive games to Chicago.
Cubs vs Cardinals trend
The Cubs have hit the team total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals
Cubs vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (4-0, 1.70 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Sonny Gray (6-2, 2.87 ERA) |
Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries
Cubs vs Cardinals weather
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