After the weather canceled the series' opening game last night, the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs will begin a two-game set tonight.
After losing two straight and the series to the Atlanta Braves, Chicago will enter tonight amid a slump, but my Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions think a bounce-back game is on deck.
Read on to see why my in my MLB picks for Saturday, May 25.
Cubs vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
If this game were being played a week ago, you wouldn't be getting these odds.
Miles Mikolas will take the mound for the Cardinals, which has had two losses in his last three starts, along with metrics that say his best years are behind him. Jameson Taillon will take the mound for the Cubs with a 1.4 ERA and an expected ERA that follows closer.
Naturally, given the perceived pitching advantage, you'd expect the Cubs to be favored, but that's not the case. While I understand that these odds are fair, given the recent play of the two teams, I think we've gone a little too far here. I make Chicago a slight favorite, so I can't pass up getting them at a near-plus money price. I'll be making it my best bet.
I don't often mention one team's dominance over the other, but I'd be remiss not to when it's pronounced as it is here. Chicago has controlled this series recently, winning eight of the last 1 head-to-head meetings. What's more, these meetings haven't even been particularly close.
This Cubs lineup should have plenty of power to attack Mikolas' most significant issue: the hard-hit ball. The metrics haven't been kind to Chicago lately in this recent slump, but you must chalk up some of that to rough variance. Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, Ian Happ, and Patrick Wisdom all rank in the Top 20% of baseball in hard-hit rate. That's a troubling problem for Mikolas as he'll enter this matchup ranking in the Bottom 20% of that metric. There are also not many signs that this should improve with an xWOBA that follows quite poorly as well.
Give me the Cubs tonight. It should just need an average outing from Taillon, given all of the issues Mikolas comes into this game with. That should be expected, as he's held every team he's played this season to three or fewer earned runs.
Cubs vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Nico Hoerner over 1.5 bases
For tonight's same-game parlay, we're pairing our best bet with Nico Hoerner to go Over 1.5 bases.
Hoerner has had nice success historically against Mikolas with a batting average that exceeds .300, and that makes sense. He'll enter this matchup with the highest hard-hit rate and second-highest run value against the slider — Mikolas’ most preferred pitch. I like him to continue his success here for a nice payoff.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Cubs vs Cardinals live odds
Cubs vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 -200 | St Louis -1.5 +158
- Moneyline: Chicago -102 | St Louis -116
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Cubs vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cubs have dominated this head-to-head series historically. Chicago has won eight of the last 10, and four of the last five wins have come by at least two runs.
- In this recent slump of losses in seven of their last 10 games, bettors have been hit quite hard backing Chicago, as they are down nearly four units total. On the other hand, you've been profitable backing St Louis in this recent stretch to the tune of +6.4 units.
- The Under was the best bet when these two teams met recently. The total has gone in that direction in five of the last seven meetings.
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Cubs vs Cardinals trend
The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.05 Units / 21% ROI) Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.
Cubs vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (3-2, 2.20 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Miles Mikolas (3-5, 5.77 ERA) |
Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries
Cubs vs Cardinals weather
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