Arizona @ Washington props

The Arizona Cardinals will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context). THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.0% pass rate. The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game. Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league. The Washington Commanders pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.1%) to running backs since the start of last season (75.1%).

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context). THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.73 seconds per snap. THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to accumulate 3.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs. Antonio Gibson has been among the leading pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 86th percentile. The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Completion% in football (84.4%) to running backs since the start of last season (84.4%).

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context). THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.73 seconds per snap. Logan Thomas has run a route on 68.6% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 85th percentile among tight ends. The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (80.7%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (80.7%). The Arizona Cardinals defensive tackles rank as the worst DT corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context). THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.73 seconds per snap. Terry McLaurin has run a route on 92.8% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 91st percentile among WRs. THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to earn 7.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among wideouts. Terry McLaurin has been among the top WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.

The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling with backup QB Joshua Dobbs this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Cardinals are a huge 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script. The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per play. Zach Ertz has been among the best pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.7 receptions per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.

Brian Robinson has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Curtis Samuel has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jahan Dotson has gone over 3.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.