Rangers vs Mariners Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners both picked up some much-needed form with series wins this week and will now head into battle out on the west coast for a weekend series which could cement momentum for either team.

After giving him an extra day of rest, can Seattle reasonably expect Luis Castillo to return to form in a home start versus a competent offense, or will this be another night for Texas’ pitching staff to shine?

Let’s get right into Rangers vs Mariners predictions and free MLB picks for Friday, June 14.

Rangers vs Mariners prediction

My best bet
Rangers moneyline (+123 at BetRivers)

My analysis
The Texas Rangers have been going through it at the dish of late, ranking among the very worst in the game in offensive production over the last week, but that doesn’t change that this team is still doing one thing well – and that’s not striking out.

Down at a wonderful 17.7% in the last seven days, Texas’ issue continues to be the fact that it cannot hit for any power to speak of. Entering T-Mobile Park, where fly balls are not rewarded, it would seem this is a poor spot to believe in a turnaround, but the Rangers are actually a team that has put the ball on the ground a ton.

Getting the ball back into play against Luis Castillo is imperative, given he’s rested on excellent strikeout numbers over the years and hasn’t exactly owned elite expected stats. Well, last year was a bit tricky for him given some diminishing returns with a .230 Expected Batting Average and .408 Expected Slugging, and this season his xBA has come up to .245 while the xSLG has remained at the same poor number.

The issue here is that Castillo has experienced a dip in strikeouts due to a huge dive in whiffs on his fastball and more expected hits on that pitch, which has lost around one mile per hour of velocity.

Texas has had issues hitting four-seamers over the last 30 days but this should be a spot where it can turn around, given the lack of quality on the hill for the Seattle Mariners. It should be able to string together some hits due to the problems Castillo’s had on contact coupled with its excellent contact rates.

Now, Andrew Heaney hasn’t exactly shined this season, but he should enjoy life in Seattle on Friday as a heavy fly-ball arm against an offense that is abysmal in its unkind home park due to its affinity for power. The Southpaw is coming up with more whiffs this year, which should translate to punchouts against the biggest strikeout victims in baseball, the Mariners are 23rd in wRC+ to left-handers to boot.

Rangers vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)

Rangers moneyline

Andrew Heaney 7+ strikeouts

Luis Castillo Under 5.5 strikeouts

+501 at FanDuel

It’s Friday, so perhaps that’s why I’m feeling so bold here. I’m going to play both strikeout props in this one, grabbing an alternative line on the Hean Dog to cement my belief in him shutting down the lowly Mariners.

I hinted at it above, but there are issues abound in the contact department for Seattle no matter where you look. This team is striking out in 27.5% of its plate appearances to lead the league, and against lefties, it is still way up at 27.2%. The Mariners are also 27th in run value per 100 sliders, which happens to be the best pitch for Heaney for generating swings and misses, doing so at a 38.1% clip.

The rise in whiffs on Heaney’s slider has been so drastic – at nearly nine percentage points from last year – that he now finds himself close to the top 40% of all pitchers in whiffs and he’s generated far more chases in 2024 to boot.

His strikeout numbers over the last two years are down from the heights he reached before and after the pandemic, but it would seem there are still some strikeouts left in this arm. He’s hit this number four times in 12 starts, but starters against the Mariners have done so in five of their last eight.

Then we have Castillo’s Under, which looks to be a wise move given the Rangers’ low strikeout rate. He’s gone under five punchouts in three of his last five games and looks to be lacking the swing-and-miss touch he’s always had.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rangers vs Mariners odds

Rangers vs Mariners live odds

Rangers vs Mariners opening odds

• Run line: Texas +1.5 (-165) | Seattle -1.5 (+140)
• Moneyline: Texas +125 | Seattle -150
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)

Rangers vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis

• Texas opened up as a +125 underdog, and after some steady movement to push the visitors out to +130 the line has taken a dive down to +120 early Friday afternoon.
• The total remains at the opening number of seven runs with just a few cents of movement towards the Under.
• According to DraftKings, just 24% of bettors are taking the Rangers here, with 25% of the handle heading that way.
• The Over has accounted for 71% of the bets but just 65% of the money wagered on the total.

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Rangers vs Mariners trend

The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+13.35 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Mariners

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