The Cleveland Guardians have been on a tear as of late and will look to continue that momentum in the first game of a four-game series against the Kansas City Royals on June 27.
Cleveland got Steven Kwan back in their lineup earlier this month, and my Guardians vs. Royals predictions expect him to pile up the bases tonight. Read all about it in the MLB picks below.
Guardians vs Royals prediction
My best bet
Steven Kwan Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
For as good as the Cleveland Guardians have been all season, they’ve leveled up since the return of Steven Kwan to the lineup. Kwan, who missed most of May with a hamstring injury, returned on June 2 and didn’t miss a beat.
Pre-injury, the 26-year-old had racked up 50 knocks in 32 games with three dingers and 11 extra-base hits. It was clear the third-year outfielder was seeing the ball better than ever, and concerns he’d take time to return to form quickly dissipated.
Kwan is slashing .400/.464/.640 in June and looks like one of the league’s best contact hitters. He’s already got 10 extra-base hits and 48 total bases in just 19 games this month, eclipsing Over 1.5 total bases 12 times over that stretch.
Kwan should be able to keep his strong play up in the series opener against the Kansas City Royals, who are slated to start Michael Wacha.
Wacha has a 4.07 ERA with 68 hits allowed across 73 innings, and in 13 starts, he’s given up five or more hits six times. Putting more pressure on Wacha is the success Kwan has had this season against his go-to pitches.
With just three pitches he uses more than 10% of the time — changeup (32.6%), four-seamer (23.4%), sinker (16.2%) — Wacha could be in trouble early. Kwan has a .345 xBA this season against changeups, and it only gets worse from there for Wacha.
There are no two pitches Kwan would rather see more than the four-seamer and sinker. He’s batting .408 with a .620 SLG against four-seamers and .426 with a .574 SLG against sinkers this season.
Kwan also has 14 of his 21 extra-base hits against the FB and that spells trouble for Wacha.
Guardians vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
Steven Kwan Over 1.5 total bases
Jose Ramirez 1+ total bases
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Kwan isn’t the only Guardian who could give Wacha issues. Jose Ramirez has been one of the best mashers in baseball this season, with 21 dingers and a slash line of .275/.339/.540.
He’s averaging two total bases per game in June and has a .560 SLG against Wacha’s top two pitches. That’s why the Royals will need Bobby Witt Jr. to continue his MVP play to keep up in this one.
Witt’s slashing .311/.361/.537 this season and averaging 2.1 total bases per game. He’s also batting .347 with a .542 SLG against sinkers — Ben Lively’s No. 1 pitch.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Royals odds
Guardians vs Royals live odds
Guardians vs Royals opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland -1.5 (+140) | Kansas City +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: Cleveland -115 | Kansas City -105
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Guardians vs Royals spread and Over/Under analysis
- Coming off its first loss in its last eight games, Cleveland opened as a -115 to -121 road favorite. The line has seen little movement.
- The Guardians are one of the best teams in baseball this season with a 51-27 record, while the Royals trail them by nine games in the AL Central at 44-38.
- The Over/Under opened at 8.5 and hasn’t budged. Some books are offering the Under at even money.
- Cleveland is the best betting team in MLB this season at 46-32, and K.C. isn’t far behind at 45-37.
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Guardians vs Royals trend
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the team total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+11.80 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Royals
Guardians vs Royals game info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Ben Lively (7-3, 3.03 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Michael Wacha (4-6, 4.07 ERA) |
Guardians vs Royals latest injuries
Guardians vs Royals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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