The Giants begin a six-game road swing when they face the Braves tonight, hoping Hayden Birdsong can pitch better than he did in his debut.
On the flip side, Atlanta hopes Reynaldo Lopez can continue to outperform his metrics, but my Giants vs. Braves predictions aren't so sure he will.
Find out why I'm taking the Under on Lopez's outs total in my MLB picks for this July 2 tilt.
Giants vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Reynaldo Lopez Under 17.5 outs (-113 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Reynaldo Lopez has had a strong season for the Atlanta Braves, but tonight’s outing against the San Francisco Giants won’t be a long one.
Lopez hasn’t gotten past the fifth inning in his last two starts despite allowing just two earned runs in that span. That’s because his pitch counts have been fairly high, needing 93 pitches against the Tigers after giving up seven hits, and issuing four walks against the Cardinals while throwing 87 pitches.
Those two teams average 3.93 and 3.94 pitches per plate appearance, respectively, while the Giants are seeing 3.89 pitches per appearance — above the league average. They’re also sixth in contact rate, and have the fourth-lowest swing rate in MLB, with only seven teams drawing more walks than San Fran this year.
Lopez is having a strong season for the Braves but is ripe for regression, and these last two starts have shown hints it’s coming. He has an xERA of 3.98 and ranks in the bottom third of the league in ground ball rate, hard hit rate, and barrel rate. His walk rate is going up and the Giants are a prime team to take advantage.
Then there’s the weather conditions. Atlanta is supposed to have the second-highest temperature of tonight’s contests, with Truist Park sitting at the third-highest altitude in the league. The likes of Matt Chapman and LaMonte Wade, Jr lead a lineup sporting a career .450 average against Lopez, with 18 hits in 40 ABs. Oh, and they’ve drawn seven walks in 47 appearances.
Right now FanDuel has the best price at -113 for less than 18 outs. I expect this number to move, so I’d get in on it quickly.
Giants vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Reynaldo Lopez Under 17.5 outs
Reynaldo Lopez Over 1.5 walks
Jorge Soler 2+ hits
I fully expect Lopez to issue multiple walks here. While he’s done so just once in his last four starts, this is a San Francisco team well suited to work the count and, it's drawn multiple walks against three of the last four starters it's faced.
Jorge Soler has raised his batting average nearly 10 points in the last four games and has consecutive multi-hit contests. He’s terrorized Lopez in his career, with 12 hits and two walks in 21 matchups while slugging 1.263 against him. I’ll back him to get a pair of hits again here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Braves odds
Giants vs Braves live odds
Giants vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-120) | Atlanta -1.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: San Francisco +160 | Atlanta -190
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Giants vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves are 26-14 at home, while the Giants are just 16-25 in their travels this season. That’s why the Braves are favored at -185 on the ML and have a run line of -1.5.
- The Braves have won nine of their last 12 home games.
- The total of 8.5 runs sees the Over slightly favored, although a few books have it at -110 both directions.
- The Over is 8-2 in the Giants’ last 10, while the Braves have cashed the Under in five straight and six of the last seven.
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Giants vs Braves trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the game total Under in 40 of their last 59 games (+20.20 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Braves
Giants vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, BSSO |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Hayden Birdsong (0-0, 5.79 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (6-2, 1.70 ERA) |
Giants vs Braves latest injuries
Giants vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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