bluecompass

@Ravensfan2k3

 Cologuard

Why? Because I just pooped in a box for the 2nd time in 3 years. Getting old sucks. Will be dropping it off at the UPS store on the way to the Clemson game this morning. I don't have a guess as to whether the Tigers will show up today or not. Sad that we're only 3.5 point favs against the Dukies.

Posted Record: 2-2

UGA -7
STAN +14
MIN -4
MD +22
MISS -12
GT -5.5

Georgia -7
UGA faces FLA in Jacksonville at the world's largest cocktail party. Frat boys will be fraternizing. Sorority girls will be blushing. And oh yeah, a little bit of football will be played. UGA won this contest last year by 14 points. In 2023, they won by 23. In 2022, they won by 22. Florida has a new interim coach after Napier got canned - don't even know his name, and don't care. Yes, the Florida kids could rally around the new guy, or they could make a big statement by crapping the bed. UGA has by far the better team on both sides of the ball. I have this as UGA winning by at least 10.

Stanford +14
Pitt heads to the west coast to face the trees, who haven't lost at home this year. It will be a tall task for them to keep this streak alive, but I think Pitt is getting too much credit here. The Panthers face Notre Dame in their next game after a bye week, followed by GT and Miami. The Panthers could be overlooking the trees in this spot, and focusing on the leprechaun pooping in the forest instead. I think Stanford is dialed in for this contest and keeps this somewhat close.

Minnesota -4
The Spartans got kicked in the teeth by the Wolverines for their 5th loss in a row and they're still reeling from it. Like a drunk guy in the crowded public bathroom who needs to drop a deuce, at 3-5, they're quickly losing hope of even finding a toilet bowl before it's too late. Both teams get a bye week next week. The Gophers become bowl eligible with a win in this spot. They also have a legitimate shot at an 8 win season, which is pretty good for a team that is traditionally good at digging themselves holes, like the gophers they are. I have MIN winning this by at least a TD.

Maryland +22
The Hoosiers have only played 2 road games so far this season and both of them were very close contests. Meanwhile, the slow and ugly turtles are coming off a bye week and have had plenty of time to prepare for this one. Even though "WE WERE.... PENN STATE!!!" has had a crap-filled year, I still think IND is looking ahead to their game in not-so-happy-valley next week. This is a classic spot for a home dog and I think MD keeps this within 17 points.

Ole Miss -12
The chickens gave the elephants quite a scare last week. But they couldn't get it done when it counted, and the Tide dropped an elephant-sized dump on cocky and the boys in the last 2 minutes of the game. Meanwhile, the rebels are happy to be back home in Oxford after a 2 game road trip that saw them realize their first loss of the season against UGA. The rebs aren't looking ahead because their next game is against Charleston Community College, er..., the Citadel. Other than panty-dropping Mississippi debutants, Lane's only focus this week is on containing Sellers and wringing the necks of the chickens. Ole Miss wins this one by 3 scores.

Georgia Tech -5.5
The bees head to NC to take on the pack of puppies. Dave Doeren's job is probably on the ropes and from interviews he's done, he seems ok with getting fired. At this point, he's throwing crap at the walls and hoping something will finally stick somewhere. Both teams head into a bye week next week. NCST has lost 4 of their last 5, with their only victory coming against the Campbell middle school camels a couple of weeks ago. GT will keep their undefeated streak alive and win by at least 1 TD.

@JimmyGape

For me, this game is a hard pass.  However, I really, really appreciate your write-ups this year.  Right or wrong, they require a lot of time and effort, and that does not go unnoticed.  Please keep it up.  I sincerely wish these types of threads dominated covers, but they don't.  

Why didn't the Jags go for 2?

^^THIS^^

$400 per ticket on average.  How many won't buy another ticket based on this trash?  Not a good look when you're trying to "grow the game".

If I spent $400/ticket on average to watch the trash that is happening at Wembley right now.  Isn't the point of these Euro contests to grow the game?  Hard to do that when JAX is on the field.  Almost like they are trying to play terrible and coach terrible.

Who is Daniels going to throw the ball to?  Deebo out.  McLaurin out.  Ertz is probably gonna play but his shoulder is banged up.  Diggs is out for Dallas, but will it matter that much against a 2nd and 3rd string receiving corps?

Holding my nose and taking DAL -1.5.

I agree wholeheartedly!

AZ +10 without Murray.  They surprise everyone and keep this close.

BAL +7 at home without LJ in an early game against a west coast team.

JAX +100 at home in an early game against a west coast team with a brutal travel schedule. 

MIA +4 at home in an early game against a west coast team with a brutal travel schedule.

Stroud should throw all over the crappy BAL secondary.  Henry going to run over the HOU defensive line.  OVER 41

Lions are huge favorites and their defense will shut down the struggling Bengals.  Goff won't be throwing many passes in Q4.  UNDER 49

Hall runs all over DAL.  Pickens has a big day but Dak can't get it done.  NYJ -1 (-106)

GL

As a Clemson fan, I have no idea if the Tigers will show up today.  Was looking at the under as there's a decent chance both offenses will suck, but I can't pull the trigger on anything.  It's possible they play loose and fast since they don't really have anything left to lose at this point, and put a 40+ burger on the board.  Or Klubnik could throw 4 picks and we get a 20-14 type of game.  Yeah, I'll be watching, but will probably be deep into a mason jar before the end of the 1st half.

At first glance, I was leaning BAYLOR -4.5 and OVER 60.5, but the line movement is sending out warning signals for me on that play.

I like the OVER 56 in the OKST/AZ game.  When the OC takes over, his natural instinct is to focus on what he knows best -they put up 27 last week against BAY.  I'm looking for more than 60 points in this one.

Vandy has a much better team this year, but there's a good chance Alabama punches them right in the mouth to remind them they are are still Vandy, and have no business thinking they have any kind of chance in Tuscaloosa.  If this game was played in Nashville, it might have been the game of the week.  But it's not, so no thanks.

I hate the -21.5 for the BSU/ND game, because I think the books know something we don't, just not sure what.  I think there's a reasonable chance ND wins by 4 TDs, or they could squeak out a win and not come close to covering.

This MSU/NEB totals line opened at 53.5 and has dropped to 47.5.  At the same time, NEB opened at -10.5 and that's now up to -13.5.  In my experience, when both lines move this much and in opposite directions, I'm better off taking a pass.

I like WY +3.5 at home against UNLV.  Both teams are coming off a bye week.

MIA is coming off a bye week, but they have to go into Tallahassee to play FSU, who probably lost in VA last week because they were looking ahead to this game.  The recently renovated FSU stadium will be rocking.  Looking forward to a good game but I'll be staying away.

GL to all.

Looks like LJ is out for a couple of weeks with the bad hammy.  Nobody saw this coming.  

Baylor/OKST over 58.5

Yes!  Great thread.  I would love to see more content and discussion like this on this site.  Unfortunately, it's rare these days.

I like Clemson in this spot.  Dabo spent the week getting his guys' minds right and preaching humbleness and humility.  They aren't believing their own hype anymore.  Tons of pundits picking GT as their "upset of the week".  I think the Tigers win by a TD.

Clem -2.5

And full disclosure, yes, I'm a Clemson fan.

You guys are the craigslist of betting

More like the myspace of betting.

And so it begins - the 2025 season finally gets underway - feels like we've been waiting forever. The buzz here in Clemson right now is palpable. There's an electricity in the air for every home game, but when we get a huge game like this, the vibrations just seem to go off the charts. We've been here tailgating since yesterday with some old friends from Mandeville, LA. Yes, they're wearing their LSU gear. They brought a cooler full of Abita Springs beer and we brought a couple of full mason jars and all the food. The brisket went on the smoker at 6pm and I just pulled it off and it's sitting in peach paper in a cooler. I added the pork butt at midnight and the ribs about an hour ago. We're expecting to feed about 30 people. Everything, including the Tiger Piss Bisque (curried butternut squash soup with shrimp) that the wife made should be ready to eat in time to watch the Texas/Ohio St game on the giant 32" TV we've got set up on the tailgate. In the meantime, I'm gonna eat a tomato sandwich, drink another Turbodog, and maybe squeeze in another nap before things get really amped up. We're supposed to be going after some catfish tonight on Hartwell after the game, but I'm not sure how much I'll have left in the tank by then - getting old sucks.

Tonight, I'm looking for a close game. The focus seems to be on both of these QBs and their receivers. Honestly, both QBs could be in NYC at the Heisman ceremony come December. Both guys are seasoned and will probably be high-ish draft picks next spring. And both O-lines should be fairly strong, but I do give the edge to Clemson - since Luke took over last season, he's been developing the hogs up front and they should be ready to give Klubnik enough time to throw the ball down the field. However, finding open receivers could be a little tricky as the LSU secondary is expected to be very good this season. LSU had a great o-line last season, but they lost 4 of their guys to the NFL and now appear dependent on some other guys that haven't completely proven themselves yet. Kelly has said he's planning to use at least 8 different o-line guys in rotation - that doesn't seem like a great idea, especially against what many believe is going to be the best defensive front in all of college football. In my view, more guys rotating in and out could disrupt the offensive rythm and especially it being the first game of the season, we could see some missed blocking assignments and general confusion from the LSU boys up front.

The Clemson d-line has Woods and Parker leading the charge - these guys are quick and big, and can clog up the middle and get in the backfield in a hurry. Both are projected to be high draft picks. Overall, this group of guys under Tom Allen could be unbelievably good, and they are going to deserve a huge portion of the credit or the blame for how this season turns out. Ever since Venebles left, Tiger nation has been searching for someone who could live up to his legacy as a DC, and most of us are hopeful that Allen is that guy.

If this game stays close, it could come down to a field goal. In that case, both kickers are really good and pretty evenly matched and I wouldn't give the edge to anyone.

Overall, I'm staying away from any ML or ATS bets in this one. However, I do like the under 57 for a small play. I expect less passing yards than many of the national talking heads, and I also think both teams could struggle just a bit in the red zone. I'm thinking this is something like a 27-24 type of game.

Go Clemson!!

@VinVortex

 So FYI, 95% of the posters here are degenerate addicts who consistently lose money and are only looking for their next fix.  As football season hits, it only gets worse.  As you'll hopefully soon learn, very few here are interested in actually handicapping a game or finding +EV spots.

Good luck.

I don't mind women announcers.... for womens sports.  In fact, I kind of expect and maybe even want there to be a woman in the booth for a womens soccer game or softball or a ladies tennis match or whatever.  But I can't stand listening to women call a mens sport.  For me, Doris Burke is the worst, closely followed by that old hag that used to announce Big10 football games, and the chick they had doing Sunday night baseball on ESPN.  So I end up watching a lot of games with the TV on mute.

Cleveland

Atlanta

Seattle