Week 8 No Stone Gets Left Unturned. Niners invade the Space City and Greet their old friend Demeco Ryans.

I can already hear myself getting blasted in the replies. Just hear me out on this one first.

49ers +2 in Houston today is one of those bets that when you look back in six months, you're gonna wish you hammered it. This is a straight up gift and I'm gonna explain exactly why.

First things first, let's talk about what we're actually getting here. We are getting the better team. Not the sexier narrative, not the home team, not the team everyone wants to bet on. The BETTER team. San Francisco is 5-2. Houston is 2-4. The 49ers are rolling right now despite playing with their backup quarterback, and the Texans are an absolute mess that nobody wants to admit is an absolute mess because we all got fooled by the hype coming into the season.

Now I know what you're thinking. But Mac Jones? Really? You're riding with Mac Jones? Yes I am, and here's why that's not the problem you think it is. Mac Jones has started five games for San Francisco this year and they're 4-1 in those games. Four and one. He's completing 67 percent of his passes, thrown six touchdowns against four picks, and most importantly, he's not losing them games. Last week against Atlanta he wasn't spectacular, went 17 for 26 for 152 yards, but you know what happened? They won 20-10. The 49ers have figured out how to win with him under center because they've adjusted their offense, they're running a power scheme now, and Christian McCaffrey is absolutely eating.

Speaking of CMC, let's talk about what happened last week because this is crucial to understanding why this 49ers team is different than what people think. McCaffrey went off for 129 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, and he caught seven balls for 72 more yards. That's 201 total yards. The 49ers made a schematic change a few weeks ago, they switched from their zone running scheme to a power running scheme, and it's like they unlocked a cheat code. McCaffrey had his best game of the season and he looks healthy and explosive again. Against a Texans defense that's gonna have to respect the run, this sets up perfectly for San Francisco to control the clock and dictate the pace.

Now let's get to the elephant in the room. The Texans offense. And this is where it gets really interesting because this is a team that everyone still thinks of as this dynamic young offense with CJ Stroud slinging it around, but that's not what we're getting today. Not even close. Nico Collins is out. Christian Kirk is out. Those are their top two receivers. Gone. Collins got concussed on Monday Night Football against Seattle, his head bounced off the turf, and he's not playing. Kirk hasn't played all season with a hamstring issue. So who's catching passes for CJ Stroud today? Rookies. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, two rookies, and Xavier Hutchinson. Do you know who Xavier Hutchinson is? Neither does anyone else.

The Texans offense is ranked 21st in scoring and 22nd overall. They've scored 20 points or fewer in four out of their six games this season. And that was WITH Nico Collins, who is legitimately one of the best receivers in football. Stroud said after the Seattle game, and I'm paraphrasing here, that Collins is their best player on offense and one of the best players in the league and now he's gotta figure out how to put more on his own plate. That's not a guy brimming with confidence about his supporting cast.

Let's talk about their offensive line too because this matters. The Texans line has been getting absolutely destroyed all season. Stroud is getting pressured constantly, they can't run the ball consistently, and now they're gonna try to do all this with their quarterback throwing to guys who were probably hoping to redshirt this year. The 49ers defense isn't some world beater unit this year with all their injuries, but they're good enough to make life miserable for a quarterback who has zero time and is throwing to receivers he barely has chemistry with.

Here's another thing people aren't talking about enough. The Texans played Monday Night Football. They lost to Seattle 27-19, and it was a frustrating physical game. Now they're on a short week. That's one less day to recover, one less day to get Collins through concussion protocol which is why he's definitely out, one less day to prepare. Meanwhile the 49ers are coming off a normal week of rest after beating Atlanta at home on Sunday night. The Texans are bruised, they're depleted, and they're running on fumes.

Let me hit you with some trends because this stuff matters. The 49ers are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games against Houston. They own this matchup. Four and one straight up in their last five against the Texans too. When these teams play, San Francisco knows how to win. The Texans are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games against NFC West opponents. The total has gone under in four of Houston's last five home games because their offense just can't score.

@JimmyGape

Think about the math here for a second. Home field advantage is typically worth about 2.5 to 3 points in the NFL. So if this game was at a neutral site, the 49ers would be favored by about 1 to 1.5 points. That's how much better they are than Houston. But because it's in Houston, we're only getting them at +2? That's insane. We should be getting +4 or +4.5 based on normal home field adjustments. The line is telling you that the 49ers are legitimately better.

Let's game script this out. What does a Texans win even look like today? Their defense has to be absolutely dominant, they have to hold McCaffrey under 80 yards, they have to generate turnovers, and then their offense with no weapons has to somehow put up 20 points against a respectable 49ers defense. Does that sound likely to you? Or does it sound more likely that San Francisco runs the ball 35 times, controls the clock, keeps the game in the teens or low 20s, and either wins outright or loses by a field goal at most?

Let me tell you what I think happens today. The 49ers come out and establish the run early. McCaffrey gets 25 carries. They're gonna make this game ugly and slow and grinding because that's what benefits them with Mac Jones at quarterback. They're not gonna try to get into a shootout. The Texans defense will play hard, they're a good unit, but eventually they're gonna wear down because their offense can't stay on the field. Three and outs, three and outs, three and outs. The defense spends 35 minutes on the field and they're gassed by the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile CJ Stroud is out there trying to make something happen with receivers who can't get separation. The 49ers load the box because they don't respect Houston's passing game without Collins and Kirk, and Stroud is forced into bad throws. Maybe he throws a pick, maybe they just stall out in field goal range a couple times. This game feels like it ends 20-17 or 17-14 or something in that range, and either the 49ers win outright or the Texans squeak out a field goal win and we still cover easily.

Here's what makes me really confident about this. The market is literally telling us the 49ers are better. When you see a team getting points but they're favored on the moneyline, that's the clearest signal you can get that the sharps know something. The 49ers moneyline is around -125, which means they're actually favored to win the game straight up, but we're still getting two points because the public won't stop betting the Texans. That's called a reverse line move and it's one of the most reliable indicators in sports betting.

The other thing that has me locked in is the coaching matchup. Kyle Shanahan has seen every defense in football a hundred times. He knows how to scheme up an offense with limited weapons. Look what he's done with Mac Jones, a guy who was a complete disaster in Jacksonville last year. Now Jones is 4-1 as a starter and managing games efficiently. Shanahan has George Kittle back now too, which completely changes their run game because Kittle is one of the best blocking tight ends in football. The Texans defense is good but they're not some unbeatable unit, and Shanahan will find ways to move the ball.

On the other side you've got DeMeco Ryans, who's a good coach don't get me wrong, but his offense is completely handcuffed right now. Nick Caley is the offensive coordinator and the offense ranks 21st in scoring. They brought in a new system this year and it's been a disaster. The offensive line can't block, they have no receivers, and the play calling has been questionable at best. Ryans' defense is the only thing keeping them in games, and eventually that well runs dry.

Let's talk about what happens if this game stays close, because that's the scenario where +2 really shines. Say the Texans grind out an ugly 16-14 win or a 17-15 win. We still cash. Say it goes to overtime and the Texans win on a field goal. We still cash or push depending on the final margin. The only way we lose is if the Texans win by a field goal or more in regulation, and I'm telling you, I don't see how this Texans offense scores enough to do that. They'd need to put up at least 20 points to feel safe, and they haven't shown me anything this season that suggests they can do that without Collins.

The 49ers have also been really good in these kinds of spots. When they're underdogs, which isn't often, they show up. They're 1-1 as underdogs this season but that one loss was a close game. They know how to handle being disrespected. This team has been to multiple NFC Championship games, they've been to the Super Bowl recently, they have a championship pedigree even if they haven't gotten over the hump yet. The Texans are still a young team trying to figure things out, and right now they're figuring out that you can't win in the NFL without receivers.

Here's another angle that people aren't considering. The 49ers have nothing to lose here. They're already 5-2 without their starting quarterback, they're exceeding expectations, and they can go into Houston and play loose. The Texans on the other hand, they're 2-4 and this is a game they're supposed to win at home. The pressure is all on them. When you're the home favorite and you've been struggling, that pressure can be suffocating. One three and out, and the crowd starts getting restless. Two three and outs, and it's full panic mode. The 49ers don't have that problem. They can just line up and run the ball and play their game.

I also want to point out that the Texans got embarrassed on Monday night on national television. They lost 27-19 to Seattle and it wasn't really that close. Seattle controlled that game from start to finish. The Texans offense looked completely lost, and then Collins got hurt in the fourth quarter and you could just see the air go out of the building. That's a tough loss to bounce back from on a short week, especially when you're already dealing with a mountain of offensive injuries and struggles.

The 49ers meanwhile beat Atlanta 20-10 at home and it was a workmanlike professional performance. Nothing flashy, just good solid football. They ran the ball, they controlled the clock, they didn't turn it over, and they won comfortably. That's the formula they're gonna use again today, and it works against a team like Houston that can't score.

Let me give you my final score prediction and you tell me if I'm crazy. I think the 49ers win this game outright, something like 21-17 or 20-17. I think McCaffrey has another monster game, probably 110 yards and a touchdown. I think Mac Jones throws for like 180 yards and doesn't turn it over. I think the 49ers defense gets at least one takeaway off Stroud because he's gonna be pressing with no weapons. And I think the Texans offense manages maybe 17 points on a couple field goals and a touchdown, but it's not enough. The 49ers control this game from start to finish and we cover the +2 going away.

But even if I'm wrong about them winning outright, let's say the Texans do win. How do they win? They'd have to win something like 17-14 or 20-17, which means we still cover the +2. I cannot envision a scenario where the Texans beat the 49ers by more than a field goal with this depleted offense. I just don't see it. They're not good enough offensively to pull away from anybody right now, let alone a well coached 49ers team that's gonna run the ball and eat clock.

This is one of those bets where if you just step back and look at the big picture, it becomes obvious. You're getting the better team, the team with more talent, the team with better coaching, the team that's healthier where it matters, and you're getting TWO POINTS. In what universe does that not sound like a great bet? The only reason this line exists is because casual bettors see "Texans at home" and "Mac Jones at quarterback" and they make assumptions without doing the work. They don't look at the fact that Houston has no receivers. They don't look at the fact that the 49ers are 4-1 with Mac Jones. They don't look at the matchup history. They just bet the home team and hope for the best.

We're not doing that. We're taking the better team, we're taking the two points, and we're cashing this ticket. Don't overthink it. The 49ers are better, they're healthier where it counts, they have a better scheme, they have better coaching, and they have Christian McCaffrey who's about to run all over this Texans defense that's gonna be on the field for 35 minutes because their offense can't move the ball.

Take the better team and dont look back.

Gimme the Niners +2   

  The Houston Texans offense.

@JimmyGape        

Good read

ALL this being said but why is Houston still favored? It’s like week 8 and u think Vegas still gives out gifts. 

u don’t think the public will hammer sf? I’m sure everyone is aware sf can still be a force with CMC and Mac jones playing. This is exactly the best time to bet Houston imo. 

just showing another perspective, no numbers just reading the line and situation. Chess not checkers. Just hope you didn’t type all this to lose 

Now’ it’s Houston -2.5 on mgm 

 nice write up! Thanks!

Purdy is playing and they are still dogs.

Good luck JG.  

Texans have a very good chance today. I think they show up today and grind out a win. The defense will stop McCaffery. Lots of FGs 

Purdy is out

"But even if I'm wrong about them winning outright, let's say the Texans do win. How do they win? They'd have to win something like 17-14 or 20-17, which means we still cover the +2."

how does Houston win by 3 but SF covers +2?

Awsome write up.  Probably the best I ever read. Usually theses great write-up crash and burn.  But I’ll tail.   But what are you talking about Houston winning by a fg and you still cover with +2?  I wish it worked like that 

I think your write says the side is a coin flip take the under

@JimmyGape

 I like the under as well. Good luck today 

Interesting. GL 

My bad I meant to say Niners win by a FG, I use talk to type sometimes things get weird.

@JimmyGape

 Under 42-