Detroit at Baltimore- Do the teams even matter?

Detroit -6 is being offered at +390 and the ML at +195.

So ask yourself:

Could you see Baltimore winning?

Could you see Detroit winning?

Could you see either of them winning by 6?

For me the answers are yes and without modeling, that is good enough to justify near 4 to 1 on a touchdown by a team that can score 52 and a team that can give up 41.

You'll get the best from each team tonight with a wide spectrum of possibilities.  Just pointing out 4 to 1, over the long term (1,000 bets), with either of these teams is a sound wager.

“A team that can score 52” yea against the bears

It's an interesting point.  Oddsmakers currently have this at a lofty 53.5 Total, and a -4.5 point spread for BAL.    Personally, I'd be surprised if this game plays within a margin of 6 points or less,  given the amount of scoring expected by the Bookmakers... I just don't see that much back and forth.  BAL allowed this to happen against BUFF Week 1, but I just can't see it tonight.  But, your thesis does make some sense, so if you think DET can win, go for the higher payout.   

Baltimore lost in NY not at home 

I'm surprised it happened by BAL... period.  Regardless of where that game against BUF was played.  

@unplucked_gem

 Great post. You make an excellent point. Its something I've thought about but rarely do I take advantage of Alt lines. For me personally I know its something I need to be incorporating into my game more. 

Let me say it a different way:

 Baltimore and Buffalo are 1/2 to win the superbowl at +500/+450

Eagles and Packers tied 3rd at +700

Detroit is tied for 4th with KC at +1400

So, you're getting +390 for less than a touchdown in a matchup of two top 5 teams.

Host this game in Detroit, it'd be the same valid question on the other side.

Ultimately just trying to stimulate thought on value vs. the typical right side / wrong side tunnel track we follow.

https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/matchup/359140/preview

"I'll say that probably the extra rest day, extra film, get a good feel for who we're playing against and go from there," Jackson told reporters Thursday of the success.

His Monday Night Stats are very impressive 

"Baltimore has beaten the Lions five straight times and six of seven overall."

its not a victory lap, but a celebration for those with an open mind and  brave enough to take the journey.

+390 with virtual 0 handicapping.

38 isnt 52, but it's good enough.

Well played!  

@unplucked_gem

 Well, after our discussion earlier today I placed a handful of wagers on tonight’s game. And believe it or not, I hadn’t even seen this thread.

Detroit +4.5 1u

Detroit -1 .25u

Detroit -3 .25u

Detroit -4 .25u

Detroit -6.5 .25u

In your eyes it might be a little bit of a cop out to take the +4.5 and -1, but as someone new to this strategy it felt…comfortable. I felt good about Detroit tonight and for the exact reasons you mentioned above, I felt good about the alternate lines. I appreciate that you took the time to explain your strategy and why you stand by it. I ended up more than tripling my initial investment. Cheers brother 

“I don’t let the books tell me who the favorite is” -unplucked_gem