JimmyGape

Very interesting  

The Penix Angle

Michael Penix Jr. doesn't need to be Patrick Mahomes tonight. He just needs to not lose the game. In Week 4 before the bye, he had his best performance: 77% completion, 313 yards, 2 TDs. Against this Bills secondary that just allowed Stefon Diggs to go off for 100+ yards? He'll have opportunities.

My Take

Getting +4 at -115 is tremendous value. We're getting a full field goal plus the hook with the better defense, the better situational spot, the superior matchup for their best player, and a Bills team that's shown all year they can't blow teams out.

Buffalo might win, but I need to see them prove they can cover big numbers before I lay this kind of chalk on the road after a sloppy primetime loss.

For what it's worth, this line opened Bills -5.5 and has dropped despite heavy public money on Buffalo. That tells you everything.

Give me the home dog with revenge, rest, and the right matchups.

More than anything, I can just feel this one. Don't ask me how or why but I do.

Gimme the Falcons +4  -115  (MAX BET HAMMER POY)

Bills are a far superior team playing on the road in primetime. Every square alive will be hammering Josh Allen. That being said I can feel this one deep in my gut.

Taking Atlanta at home tonight, and here's why this is a solid spot for the home dog.

The Bijan Robinson Factor

Let's start with the most glaring matchup: Bijan Robinson vs Buffalo's run defense.

Bills rank 28th in rush defense allowing 145.6 YPG. Buffalo allows the 3rd-highest explosive run rate to running backs. Bills give up 6.7 yards after missed tackles (4th worst in NFL). Robinson is averaging 4.9 YPC and leads the league with 146 scrimmage yards per game. Robinson averages 4.2 yards after contact per carry (3rd among RBs with 50+ carries). When Robinson forces a missed tackle, he's averaging 7.3 yards.

This is a premium RB against one of the worst run defenses in football. The matchup screams Bijan having a massive night.

Falcons Defense is Criminally Underrated

Atlanta's defense is quietly elite right now. #1 total defense in NFL (244 YPG allowed). #1 pass defense (135 passing YPG allowed). Lowest completion percentage allowed at 58%. Generating 38.7% pressure rate (7th in NFL). When they pressure, they're giving up 9.4 YPC on scrambles.

Here's the thing about Josh Allen - he's getting 52.8% of his passing yards after the catch this season. Atlanta allows the 4th-fewest yards per extended dropback and they're allowing just 3.1 yards after the catch (best in NFL). This defense is specifically built to neutralize what Buffalo does best.

Bills' Current State

Buffalo just got embarrassed at home on Sunday Night Football, losing 23-20 to New England. The problems were obvious. 3 turnovers (had just 1 in first 4 games). Season-high 11 penalties. Josh Allen himself called it "piss poor offense". First time scoring under 30 points all season. Multiple key injuries: Matt Milano (best LB) and Damar Hamlin on IR.

More concerning? Buffalo's 0-3 ATS as big favorites this season and just 1-3 ATS when laying 4.5+ points. This team has consistently underperformed when expected to dominate.

Situational Edge

Falcons coming off bye week which means two weeks to prepare. Atlanta is home at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Falcons are 7-1 SU in recent Monday Night Football games. Both teams rank 1st and 2nd in time of possession so this game stays competitive and low-scoring. Buffalo in classic letdown/lookahead spot after division loss.

Blue Jays/Mariners under 7.5  -115

Hes an idiot with his horrifying 4th down decisions.

Funny thats what I said last year.

Its been happening every year. All the best players, every year. Never seen anything like this.

Jets/Islanders under 5.5  -105

Now Warner the best linebacker in football likely out for the year. How is this even possible. Every year this team gets beyond decimated by injuries.

Why on Gods green Earth would anybody bet the Cleveland Browns? We should all be taken out and clipped for not just throwing our existence on the Steelers. Yes I know hindsight is 20/20, and no I didnt take Pitt either. Im just saying, whats wrong with us are we this dumb?

And before people come out and bash me about the Jets please read the thread title again, I was basically asking people what made them like the Jets because the reasons I read were head scratchers.

Anyway just stirring up some discussion. Hope you all have a great NFL Sunday and may all your bets be golden.  

I kinda like having one super early game but thats the only positive I can think of

Niners and Titans so far

BOL BigMac...

Im curious why you like the Panthers? I was thinking Cowboys but seeing you on Carolina makes me reconsider. If you care to shed your thoughts on this Id love to hear them

Keep killing it buddy   

The Jets thought this is their Super Bowl but Bo Nix still sliced them up like a Thanksgiving turkey on that drive.

For some reason thinking this is their super bowl didn't make them smarter and faster.

I saw a lot of love for them on covers, a lot of people claiming they're sure the jets are a great bet today.

I really think people are underestimating how bad they are especially on D.

Geez

wouldnt it be better and less stressful to do something like

Broncos and Colts

or Lions and Niners

Or shit pretty much anything else

In any case bol to you

You got a lotta balls