spottie2935

Deion is situated in his zone.  He has only one expectation is to keep elevating the money flow.  He has full control of the program.  If he shocked if he moved to a program with more expectations.  

I trust you now.  I obviously missed your point.  

I’m waiting out Penn St a week.  This looks like an opportunity and a rally for the new coach and Iowa is super high right now. I just hesitate to flock to Penn St being in a dog situation. They probably cover though. 

I saw you had a bad week.  I can get a feel on what you are missing but you keep bouncing back nicely. I’m not congruent with SP+.  I’m giving some of this new info time to sort out.  

Bounce back week 

Best wishes 

@undermysac

 A home dog win vs a team struggling yet they don’t respect Marshall enough to make them a favorite.  Home dog wins are flukes because they are not the projected better team.  To do that home dog win thing again would be a miss by the lines maker.  They see something in Texas St. 

Marshall schedule so far has not been impressive that why they were +14 last week at home.

Texas St has given up 35, 4th Q points the last 2 games.  They had A 28-7 first quarter lead last game and lost. They lost the last 2 games as -7 and -14 point favorites.  2 teams going in different directions and yet the line didn’t switch. 

I don’t trust back to back home dogs after a big win, I trust a little bit favorites after 2 real bad favorite failures.  I’m a dog guy so I have better games in mind but I’m not touching Marshall even as sound a spread team they have been recently.  

This game is off my radar.  You like Texas St? 

save your money on Iowa.  To me it’s obvious the team wanted The coach out.  The loss to Northwestern was indicative of that.  Now that he is out do they rally ? The back up QB isn’t that big of an issue either.  The starter wasn’t impressing me.  I won’t back Penn State but I’m not jumping up to get against them. I’m thinking pass. 

Cal-11 too much. They lost and didn’t score again SD St.  they were dogs to BC (looking back that line was amazing) and home dogs to Duke. -11 here is a pass or actually I like N.Carolina's line, but not at the top of my list either. 

Dog teams that are favorites at least one game in the near future confirms the team is valuable.  A team that is consistently a dog is trash in a lot of cases.  

If a teams future games are going to be fog games that’s a sign of weakness. If these teams are dogs I’ll avoid them most often and if they are favorites with dog games ahead that’s a fade-able favorite with big games ahead.  

Massey ratings site is adequate.  I have my targeted games and use it to confirm or eliminate some games.  I have my ideas though heading into Sunday and Monday.  Some games it takes some stewing about.  

Louisville lost to Virginia last game.  That creates the volatility situations that I like. 

@Yanasaur

 That’s because where is the strong favorite in this conference. This season in the ACC, there isn’t a dominate favorite team(except of course Miami)   Volatility is key so when a team meanders thru a season as a favorite and a dog like a Virginia against weaker favorite opponents like FSU and Clemson there becomes opportunities. 

Soon as a team drops out of the top 10 they become susceptible to favorite spreads.  Something I’m curious about this week is Virginia and how they handle being 2 TD favorites.  I know it’s Carolina but we will see. 

Florida and history of teams that are home favorites after playing the last 4 games against ranked opponents 

16-2 SU that leaves Ms St 10 points to get the over if they don’t win. Florida being battle tested either they play desperate for a win or just fall apart.  Their D might be the key to this game. 

Previous lines and past scores and data from past games are important to me. The books adjust spreads of course so the ladder success on teams that have been respectable favorites in the past and failed upon those games I opportunities.  Volatile teams  like Louisville fit what I do nicely.  Unless there is a coaching change and dysfunction like a Penn St.  That’s not the case because Louisville is still getting W’s. 

Look ahead games and future line evaluations are also important to me.  A dog team that has power is shown in future games that they will be favorites.  

Miss St +11 

I don’t like this team at +11 because they have a terrible history in the road the last few seasons They need to show me they are filling in a line gap because on the road their ATS success are at numbers way higher than this.  

in this line category they only are 1-5 SU and ATs because all their other dog spreads have been higher than +24.  Florida is offensively challenged but a good defense and Florida has played a small handful of highly ranked teams.  I think this game is a possible hidden gem of a favorite. 

Floridas last 4 vs

Tex AM

LSU 

Texas 

Miami 

this makes Florida appear worse. 

The possible bad news is confidence levels and that gauntlet of a schedule can have an effect on mental and physical health. Might take at least a quarter to gain their mentality. 

LOU +13.5

Louis been a chalk in every game with not much success.  Thats a strong dog situation.  Last week  a -7 favorites against upcomer (ranked) Virg.   They have scored 27 points in all games and against a top 10 opponent on the road thats important. 

Miami: 4-0 ATS vs FBS foes this season and thru my eyes some decent lines so far.  Home dog to Notre dame -8 to the Gators and -17 to S. Florida.  S Florida is having a season , I get that but they were shown what a top team like Miami can do.  I have Louisville much stronger than S.Florida.  Just look at S. Florida's lines for confirmation @ Florida +18 for example.  Louisville +13.5 and probably +14 or more is valuable to me.

One thing I dont care for is the respect of the contest players have them at 60%.  Maimi has been covering and Louisville not so much.  I feel a few extra points have been added here  

instead of adding more info and my take.   I will add more comments in my thread.  I feel like im stepping on your toes .

Nice to see your early active thoughts. Ive been watching your success.  

Best Wishes 

TULSA +16.5

last game Tulsa was @ red hot Memphis line was +20.  ECU is not red hot but they play well.  I dont like this game because Tulsa last week did not come close to the +20 spread so this line should be +20 or more for an overlay line.  Tulsa has bee favored 2 times to ACU and NMST.  Thats not very good credibility.  Their dog win was +10 @ OK St.  This line is +16.5  ECU can play Ok St can not.

pass for me.

Not strong favorites = UCF

Why their last 3 games all dogs, this week a favorite and next week @ Baylor, should be a dog again.  What that says to me is this is confirmed a dog team and last week 1 cover was minimal. Before that , 2 dog failures.  WV is an ugly team that this is an opportunity to cover.  The dangerous part of WV is BYU dominated them last game,  The way BYU plays the dont blow out teams in the second half the suffocate teams just to get the W and move on. 

This game speaks to me as being very tight and maybe WV at some point has the lead.  WV was +20 @ BYU. CFL is not BYU.   

Intangible, good or bad?  Good: WV won the turnover battle last week 3-1.  If they can create the same that/s an opportunity.  The bad: UCF is aware of the turnover and 2 BYU lost fumbles.  Multiple fumble games are rare.  

I like betting against favorites that are dog teams and this favorite isn't getting enough points to cover the dog spreads.  This dog won't be on the top of my list but it qualifies.

season=2025 and HF and tpS(W)<8 and rank=None and week>1 and opS(W)>7

season=2025 and HF and tpS(W)<8 and rank=None and week>1 and opS(W)<4

Just getting prepared