BarrelledIn

@BeeRich

 -120….at 2 teams vs 3

You’ve been betting 12+ years and know nothing 

This is frankly a nonsense teaser. You could have done a 2 or 3 teamer for 6 points for much better odds/outcome for effectively the same thing. The extra point+extra team for +2, pk, and 8.5 are not worth the price you paid at all 

Are you serious? You're a dumb a ss lmao 

All these picks are just following conventional wisdom that any average joe square would use, all of these picks are popular public picks. "HUrr Memphis has covered the first 2 games, so they're good to cover again" or something. Retard shit 

"The projected score is 29 - 20 based on the spread/total." Doesn't even make sense. 29 isn't even a feasible number to land on. The true projected score would be 28-24 based on a 51.5 spread. 

Thank you for the fade. I will be sure to bump 

@Ilovefootballs

 The most basic analysis conceivable. Imagine actually betting based on this slop 

Fade this tard and cash with the regression 

Iamaleva is throwing the game unironically 

@DogbiteWilliams

 You didn't cover despite the other team getting 4 turnovers...you realize that's the opposite of unlucky. Turnovers are a sign of variance. You had extreme variance in your favor, and still lost. You got totally outplayed. Even out the variance, you lost by 20. Besides, you lost because you bet a sh it line. 

Embarrassing takes like that deserve to be called out 

Pre-covid season: HFA was standardized to 3 points for the great majority of teams. -3 always meant the teams were even. 

COVID season: HFA essentially disappears with no fans, 0-1 pts max everywhere 

Post-covid season until today: HFA stayed as it was during covid, mysteriously 

This means home teams are undervalued, and extreme value can be found in teasers now. KC is +1.5 vs PHI at home now...teasing KC +7.5 at home is outrageous. That same teaser pre-covid would only be worth about +4.5.

Josh Allen +1.5 today at home...teased to +7.5. Outrageous. Chicago teased to +7.5 tomorrow at home vs a first time starting QB in primetime. Joke.

You can get multiple crazy favorable teasers every week now. Value that was previously thought to be unthinkable. 

@theclaw

 Curious how you’re justifying a large wager on OKC -4 when your line is -1.57? Why have your own line if it’s not the primary factor to determine a play, and you ignore a 2-3 point negative discrepancy?

this and those cavs live bets in a blowout gm4 don’t seem very well founded, but good luck 

@jpitty

 Cope. You've been betting since at least 2009 and sound like a 15 year old in his first year betting parlays. Warriors were covering the ENTIRE 2nd half until 3 minutes left when Draymond gave the game away with a series of bad plays on both ends, bad calls from refs, Jimmy missing 4 layups down the stretch. Wolves had ZERO business covering.

You made a bad, square bet with a shi tty line. Deal with it, re tard. 

Warriors led outright for 90% of the second half you schizo tard. Minn didn't deserve to cover. Right side covered. Gambling justice 

Warriors led outright for 90% of the second half you schizo tard. Didn't deserve to cover. Right side covered. Gambling justice 

Post more fades as you crash out making 8 threads a day 

The forum isn’t your place to air out every schizo rambling hindsight of your internal monologue. Post more fades

Please provide the justification to overpay buying meaningless points to -135

thats not a serious pick. That’s your level sh it to inflate a record ATS

Teams home down 0-2 have lines skewed in the first half vs the full game ALWAYS. Because of how they perform historically, and both books and bettors are aware. Go look at yesterday for example, genius.

1h and full game are also separate markets, with the former having lower limits that can fluctuate wildly by a few 4-5 figure bets, unlike fg

20 years? you don’t know sh I t about anything, crazy

Do you follow NBA playoff lines, at all? If you did, you wouldn't make this thread. There's no saving you, maybe someone else is nice enough to explain in depth 

I like your stuff here but think you are too rigid in some of your thinking, such as here. The value in the team down 0-2 at home is psychological, emotional, follows the ebbs and flows of human nature being in a desperate situation, while the team leading is comfortable/complacent.

The value is not derived from some numerical magic from covering a spread or not in the previous game. What difference does it make if they covered by .5 in game 2 and still lost by 9? That's nonsense, really. You could say you prefer to be a team after they lose by 30, vs lose a heartbreaking buzzer beater, that doesn't apply.

You've been sports betting since at least 2014 and ask this question. Quit now, seriously 

lol

fade everything OP says and retire

Completely worthless ESPN tier shortsighted analysis. Everything you post is bland garbage hindsight. Do you watch the NBA or live moment by moment? Bucks easy tomorrow , 2-2 series. Great fade material OP