Griswold1

Add:

1* Raiders +3 (-120)

The Jaguars may be a play-against team right now after winning several early games despite being outgained.  Raiders off the bye may be a chance for a season re-set.

NFL YTD 5-3 +1.4 units

all plays 1* so far

Last week almost every favorite covered and I managed to play one of the two that didn't (Atlanta).  Wheeling back on another big favorite:

1* Lions -8 1/2

Detroit is off the bye and has been dominant since that week 1 loss to GB.  They're off the bye and at home against a Vikings team that looks to be the worst in the NFC North.  They have a QB controversy but the reality is neither of them are very good.  Vikings were killed last week by the Chargers.  Detroit's defense is as good as they offense and they held the Bucs to only 9 in the game before the bye.

CFB YTD 4-5  -1.5 units

all plays 1* so far

I'm coming off a bad 0-2 week where I lost both rated plays while winning the two "opinion" plays.  Live dogs this weekend:

1* Kansas State +7 1/2 (-120)

K-State is on a roll, killing archival Kansas last weekend after beating a solid TC team the game prior.   Texas Tech may be getting overvalued after a very strong start.  But they lost their last road game at Ariz State and they have QB issues because of injuries.  Kansas State QB Avery Johnson is having a very good season with 15 TD passes and only two INTs.  This is a tough place for a road team to win.

Opinions only:

California +4 (Virginia's last three wins were by a combined six points)

SMU +11 1/2  (this is the kind of game Mario Cristobal loses; it's only Miami's second road game of year)

@ToddC

 My opinion plays are very small bets that I don't count in my record.  I have learned to make only a small number of plays and I list the ones I like but not enough to swing hard at as "opinions"  

I made a mis-statement in my Oregon analysis when i said they are off the bye.  I meant to point out they have a bye next so have no reason to let up at home against a beaten down time like Wisconsin

NFL YTD 5-2 +2.65 units

all plays 1* so far

I won last week with the Bears to move to 5-2 on the season.  I like them again this week but have a play that's stronger:

1* Falcons -7 (-125)

Miami looks absolutely dead and the coach could be gone after this weekend.  Dolphins offense scored only six last week but, even more humiliating, gave up 31 to a really bad Browns offense.  Atlanta is 3-3 and very inconsistent offensively but the defense has been excellent and is ranked #2 in the league on some metrics.  Falcons are at home, seem motivated and are playing the league's biggest train wreck.

Opinions only:
Bears +6 (they're on a roll and Ravens defense is really bad)
Steelers +3 (GB keeps winning but not impressively; the whole Rodgers thing creates an unknown)

CFB YTD 4-3 +0.7 units

all plays 1* so far

I won last week laying 25 points against Wisconsin and I'm laying even more against the same team this week.  Plus, an upset also from the Big 10:

1* Oregon -32 1/2

Wisconsin's offense is absolutely terrible.  They've been shut out two weeks in a row by Iowa and Ohio State.  The defense is worn out after having to be on the field virtually all of the last two games.  Now they face Oregon's great offense off the bye.  Wisconsin has played a brutal schedule, has been wracked with injuries and the coach seems lost.  Fickell may be fired after another blowout.

1* Illinois +5

Illini are off the bye after losing to Ohio State.  Washington had no offensive spark at Michigan last week and is playing its sixth game in a row without a bye.  Bielema has a spectacular road ATS at Illinois: 17-5.

Opinions only:

Central Michigan -16 1/2 (UMass is awful)

Washington State ML -125 (letdown non-conf spot for Toledo, Wash St has been competitive in three straight road losses against better and has first home game in month)

@newmarket

 I acknowledge the above but it's also the first time they've played a team as bad as the Saints.  Chicago had one bad quarter against Minnesota in week 1 and a hellish game 2 vs Detroit.  Other than that, they have impressed me.  Saints are not as awful as I thought (I pegged them as worst team in league before season started) but they are not very good.

NFL YTD 4-2 +1.65 units

all plays 1* so far

I improved to 4-2 last week with the Raiders win and cover versus the Titans.

1* Bears -5

Chicago's offense is rolling and is somehow coming off back to back wins by the exact same 25-24 score.  Last week's win was on the road against the Commanders who have a great offense.  Bears now get to play at home against a bad Saints D.  NO is now 1-5 SU.  The Bears held Dallas' big time offense to 14 Sep. 21 and that was the last time the Bears played at home.  Bears are at home, better on both sides of the ball, have a better record and momentum.  Weirdo fact: Bears last home game was 9/21 and after this game they aren't home again until 11/9.

Opinion only:
Cardinals +6 1/2 (everybody on Arizona is banged up but GB just looks flat and was unimpressive in beating a terrible Bengals team)

YTD 3-3 -0.3 units

all plays 1* so far

Coming off a bad beat 1/2 point loss last week on East Carolina.  I see a blowout here:

1* Ohio State -25

Wisconsin is an absolute mess.  They are down to the third string quarterback and the offensive line is terrible.  They won't score here.  Iowa, with a lousy offense, put up 37 on Wisconsin last week.  Ohio State's offense is much better.  All appearances are the Badgers have quit on Fickell as the lack of effort in the loss at home to rival Iowa was humiliating.  Wisconsin could play hard and still lose by 35.  As for Ohio State, Ryan Day is the best coach in CFB (except vs Michigan) and just pounded three decent teams in Washington, Minnesota and Illinois.  Wisconsin should get killed and will lose by even more next week at Oregon.

Opinions only:
New Mexico -12

USC +9 (can't make it a full play because Riley's road ATS is awful but I see this as a tossup rivalry game)

NFL YTD 3-2 +0.65 units

all plays 1* so far

I won last week with the soaring Lions and turn this week to a team that should bounce back from a beatdown:

1* Raiders -4 

LV lost 40-6 (ugh!) last week to Indy but the stats were closer.  Raiders committed two turnovers and gave up four sacks but that was to the Colts defense.  Tennessee's D is not good and is especially bad against the run.  Great spot to play against the Titans after a preposterous one point win over the Cardinals.  Raiders are better on both offense and defense.  True LV has lost four in a row but the opposition was very strong.  When you see a 1-4 favored by this much while coming off a 34-point loss, somebody is telling you something

Opinion only:

Cowboys -3 (when they get their receivers back they may score 50 every week; if only the defense......)

YTD 3-2 +0.8 units

all plays 1* so far

Thursday:

1* East Carolina +6 1/2

EC's defense has been impressive and that's a good matchup because Tulane QB is shaky. Tulane's offense is much better running but EC is holding opponents to 3.4 yards per carry on the ground.  EC held Army, which runs all the time, to only six points.  East Carolina is one of those teams nobody pays attention to and not many know they are on a 9-3 SU run since the middle of last year.  Tulane's defense is very good and they pasted Northwestern and beat an OK Duke team so I'm not knocking them here.  I merely think East Carolina is way under the radar and I'm getting nearly a TD in a tossup game

Cubs evidently switching pitchers to Matt Boyd, an ace who went only 4 1/3 on Tuesday.  I continue to like the play

YTD 7-8 -0.80 units

Playoffs 1-0 +1.0 units

Faves 1-1 -0.14 units

Dogs 6-7 -0.66 units

I won my last play with the Cubs in Game 3 of the Padres series and I'm right back on them:

1* Cubs +140

Cubs-Brewers is a big rivalry and more drama here: Brewers dumped Colin Rea after last year and he's the Cubs starter.  And there's the Craig Counsell drama: still lives in Milwaukee but hated by fan base because he dumped the Brewers to go to the Cubs.  As for the game itself, the pitching matchup is more even than it appears.  While Peralta was 16-5 on the season, the Brewers were only 20-13 in his starts (counting his no-decisions).  Cubs were 17-10 in Rea starts.  Brewers bullpen may be better but Megill has made only one appearance since spending weeks on the IL.  Cubs didn't score much in Padres series and Brewers scored on 20 in last nine regular season games.  I give a slight edge overall to the Cubs which makes +140 great value

1* Cubs To Win Series -104

Only a small dog price for a team on the road and with a poorer regular season record.  Milwaukee starting pitching is a mess.  Peralta and Priester are the only two healthy starters.  Quintana will pitch but has missed the last month.  Woodruff is out altogether and Misiorowski has been so shaky he's going to the bullpen.  Two Brewers relievers, including the closer, spent the last three weeks on the IL and both only had one comeback appearance (both in final game of season).  If Brewers win Game 1, this line will explode to +200 and will be a good bet also.

YTD 6-8 -1.80 units

Dogs 6-7 0.66 units

Faves 0-1 -1.14 units

1* Cubs -115

Both teams used a lot of relievers in Game 2 and the Cubs also went through the bullpen in Game 1 so the starters here are a key.  Yu Darvish this year was brutal on the road: 1-3 with an ugly 7.26 ERA.   He may not last long and San Diego has a great bullpen but this could be a low scoring game and if Darvish is hit early, it may doom the Padres.  On the other hand, Cubs' Taillon is 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA his last sx starts and is listed with 61% quality starts on the season.   Cubs are 51-32 at home this year and Padres are 39-44 on the road.  

Opinion only:
Red Sox +140 (two rookie pitchers so the bullpens may be used a lot and I trust Boston's more than the Yankees'.   I see this game as a tossup so the value is the dog)

NFL YTD 2-2 -0.35 units

all plays 1*

I played the Rams each of the last two weeks, losing a bad beat two weeks ago and winning with a lucky win last week.  Enough of the Rams:

1* Lions -10

Playing double digit road favorites is usually unwise but the Lions offense has been outstanding ever since an ugly week one loss to GB.  Detroit has put up 124 the last three weeks against three really good defenses (Browns, Ravens, Bears).  I don't see why Cincy will be any better at stopping them and don't see how the Bengals without Burrow can keep up.  Bengals have scored just 13 the last two weeks and while the Lions defense is weaker than what Cincy has been facing,  I don't see the Bengals getting to 20 and I'm almost convinced the Lions will be in the 30s.

Opinion only:

Chargers -2 1/2 (-120)

YTD 6-7 -0.80 units

Dogs 6-6 +0.34 units

Faves 0-1 -1.14 units

all plays 1*

1* Reds +129

The Reds must win to make the playoffs unless the Mets lose (very possible) but the games are the same time so Cincy won't know for sure.  Brewers are only trying to stay sharp as they don't play again until Saturday.  Peralta will likely pitch Saturday and he's starting today but my guess is he goes only two innings and the Milw pitchers who didn't pitch yesterday will all throw an inning.  In other words, it's a practice game for them.  Reds are on a 8-2 run.

Opinions only:

Pirates +175 ( ending season on 6-1 run)

Cardinals +126 (Cubs play Tuesday and that's their sole focus)

YTD 1-2 -1.35 units

all plays 1*

I'm still stinging from my loss on last week's  play on Rams +3 1/2 after, well, you know what happened.  I'm counting on them to get my money back this week.

1* Rams -3 (-125)

Yeah, Indy is 3-0 but two of the wins were against weak teams and the Denver win was rather lucky.  Rams had Eagles beat LW on the road (I'll stop whining there) and held them to 288 yards.

Opinions only:

Ravens -2 1/2

Jets +3 (Monday, and if I'm right Hairdo McDaniel could be fired Tuesday)

YTD 6-6 +0.14 units

Dogs 6-5 +1.35 units

Faves 0-1 -1.14 units

1* Royals +101

The Angels can't hit (other than a few HRs).  Their batting average is only .201 over the past month and if you prefer OPS it's a putrid .635 over the same period.  Angels have  quit: they've lost ten of the last eleven.  KC has scored 63 runs the last nine games and don't need to score many tonight because it's the Angels.  Royals pitcher Kolek is hot: 1.91 ERA last five starts.  Angels pitcher Kikuchi 2-5 with a 6.02 ERA his last eleven starts.  I think this is a terrible line and I'm jumping on it.

Opinions only:

Marlins +165 (on 11-1 run!)

Guardians -129 (for obvious reasons; Tigers collapse may be worst in MLB history)

NFL YTD 1-1 -0.15 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Rams +3 1/2 (-120)

The Rams have looked great on both sides of the ball, holding Houston under 10 in week 1 and scoring 33 last week at Tennessee.  This is a good time to go against the Eagles who are coming off a physical and emotional win over KC. Make sure to get the hook in what is likely to be a tight game

Opinions only:

Bears +1 (True, their defense has looked but so has the Cowboys D)

49ers -2 1/2 (even if Purdy is out they can win.....and Purdy might not be out)