Griswold1

Guy called me a "tard" for my pick.   Maybe I am, but I also won.  Score was actually a bit misleadings as Ark State was up by 28 entering the fourth and Missouri State's last score was in the final moment.  The win managed to get me to virtually even on an otherwise sucky season

NFL YTD 6-6  -0.9 units

all plays 1*

Saturday:

1* Bears PK

Green Bay dominated the game two weeks ago at lambeau beyond what the scoreboard indicated but that was before they lost Micah Parsons for the season.  Star WR Watson is also questionable.  GB's pass rush without Parsons will be anemic and Caleb Williams will feast on that.  Normally, QB injuries ar the only ones that move the line but Parsons' impact on GB defense in my opinion is worth three points and his loss and has an untold toll emotionally.   GB already lost TE Kraft (also with ACL) meaning the only two first team All-Pro players on the team are both gone.  Bears finally killed somebody last week with the win over the Browns.  Packers come in after losing g to Denver and teams that have just played the Broncos have an atrocious record the week following

Opinion only:
Panthers +3

YTD 1-1 -0.8 units

I won by a 1/2 point a few days ago with Charlotte in their cover versus the Bulls.  I'm on the Hornets again

1* Hornets +5 1/2

LaMelo Ball is probably back for Charlotte which gives them strong offensive weapons when combined with Kon Knueppel (was he the best player on Duke last year?) and Miles Bridges.  Hornets just went up to Cleveland beat the Cavs and are on a 3-0-1 ATS run.   Hawks got blown out two games back by Pistons and have been playing terrible defense and now faces a young, hungry team with aggressive scorers.

CFB YTD 6-9 -4.05 units

all plays 1* so far

I always make my Game of the Year on one of the lesser bowls as I believe there are always a couple of huge opportunities with coaching changes, the portal, motivation, etc., being extreme factors.  My tack record on these has been very good including UTSA's 44-15 win last year and South Florida's 45-0 win two years ago.

I am posting this play now as I believe further line movement toward Arkansas State is likely.

December 18:

4* College Football Game of Year   Arkansas State PK (-115)

1) Ark State's HC Butch Jones has a winning bowl record covering schools at various levels (here, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Central Michigan).  His bowl record as a HC is 7-1 and the only loss was by two points.

2) Disastrous timing for Missouri State whose coach just quit to make a rather lateral move to Coastal Carolina.  There's a search underway for a new coach and assistants who are no doubt job shopping are preparing the team for the bowl.  Players have to be thinking about hitting the portal.

3)  Both teams have good running games but Ark State spreads it out more and the QB is a true dual threat.

4)Ark State, in my opinion, had a far tougher schedule in the Sun Belt than Missouri state did in weak Conf USA.

5) Ark State ended the season 5-2 and is battle tested as several wins were close.

6)  While Ark State played Iowa State tough in non conference, Missouri State gave up 73 to USC.  They ended the season with consecutive losses and the defense is porous.

7)  Ark State has total coaching stability with Jones while Missouri State is in chaos with the HC gone, the assistants job hunting (or begging to join the HC at Coastal) and players wondering about the future with a new coach who will try to harvest the portal.

8) Sharp line movement toward Ark State which is telling in a low profile game.

I am posting the following plays now to lock in the lines.  I'll write them up later:

Dec 24:

3* Hawaii +2 1/2

Dec 31:

1* Texas -7

YTD 0-1 -1.8 units

2024-25 19-6 +12.2 units

1* Hornets +3 1/2

Both teams have been off since Sunday but the Bulls entered the mini-break as bad as it gets.  Chicago has lost seven in a row and some were to really BAD teams: Indiana (twice!), Brooklyn and New Orleans.  One of the losses was the same matchup we have here: at Charlotte.  Hornets are dogs because LaMelo is out and so is Sexton.  But Kon Kuneppel will step up and Miles Bridges is playing very well.  Charlotte is a young team that plays hard for a good coach and will continue to get better.  The Bulls are badly downtrending, are on the road and have won only one game since Nov. 19.  Line has been moving up all day and I'm bucking that line movement but I see little reason to lay points with Chicago

Word is he got a staffer pregnant.  The school evidently knew about but acts abruptly now.  I think that means they have a coach in place.  DeBoer makes sense as it continues the pattern of coaches of playoff teams making other jobs while their schools are alive for national titles

NFL YTD 6-5 +0.2 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Cowboys -5 1/2

Dallas and its explosive offense played Detroit essentially even but was burned by being -3 in turnovers.  Vikings have an excellent defense and shut out the train wreck Commanders but they won't keep up with the Coyboys' offensive pace.  Dallas can still win NFC East as Eagles have lost three in a row and Giants and Commanders have a combined five wins.  This game could be a blowout if the Vikings of November resurface.

Opinions only:
Bengals +2 1/2  

Bills +1 (NE has won ten in a row, but sheepish that schedule is soft)

YTD 0-0

2024-25 19-6 +12.2 units

i hit 76% of my NBA plays posted here last year including 10-0 in the playoffs.  First of this season here:

1* Pistons ML -180

There’s a chance Giannis might not play tonight with numerous signs pointing to a trade.  Bucks lost to lowly Wizards Monday and all vibes are bad.  Pistons 17-4 SU

CFB YTD 5-8 -3.9 units

1* Kansas State -16 1/2 (-115)

Colorado has been killed three of its last four games and is off back to back home losses.  The Coach Prime thing is so dead.  Kansas State ran for 472 yards last week against Utah and faces a Colorado defense that is terrible against the run.  There's a fear K-State may be drained after blowing an upset chance at Utah last week but they can still become bowl eligible with a win.  JuJu Lewis  came in at QB in the second half last week but won't play to preserve an eligibility year.  That leaves Kaidon Salter who has been beaten up behind Colorado's poor O-Line.  Colorado has given up 176 points the last four weeks.  Look for half the team to hit the portal and escape this mess.

1*  Hawaii -8 1/2

Wyoming can't score.  Cowboys have scored only 17 points the last four weeks combined.  They get to spend Thanksgiving in Hawaii to cap a bad season and will likely be unfocused.  Hawaii has an excellent offense and while they were held to 10 last week at UNLV, they put up 38 the prior week against a strong San Diego State D.  The has been Hawaii's best season in years and they'll be motivated to end strong at home.

Opinions only:

Ohio State -10 (if Ryan Day doesn't beat Michigan this year, he never will)
East Carolina-Florida Atlantic OVER 65 1/2 (These two offenses are ranked 1-2 in the country in pace; lots of plays equals lots of points) 

YTD 6-5 +0.2 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Cardinals +3

Arizona has played a brutal schedule and is stuck in the NFL's best division.  They've played five good offenses in a row (Indy, GB, Dallas, Sea and SF).  They return home to face a Jaguars team that can also score but whose defense is shaky (although dominant last week).  Cardinals' Brisset threw for 452 yards last week in the SF loss.

Opinion only:

(Thursday)
Texans +6 (always like home dogs with great defenses vs road faves with good offenses; can't make it a full play because of Houston going with backup QB)

YTD 5-7 -2.8 units

all plays 1* so far

I went 1-1 last week but am aggravated anyway.   The win was a great pick on +11 1/2 UConn which beat Duke straight up but the loss was on Oregon State who outgained Sam Houston by 317 yards and 20 (!) first downs but still managed to lose.  I'm against Sam H (a terrible team with an awful coach) again but I like one play more:

1* South Florida -9 1/2

Showdown of the best two quarterbacks most haven't heard of.  The difference is Navy's Blake Horvath is banged up (he's likely to play which is why line has dropped) and South Florida's Byrum Brown is healthy.  Brown is on track to throw for 3000 and run for 1000 and that's normally enough to get Heisman consideration.  Navy won its first seven but every one of the wins was against a soft opponent and Navy could lose its last five.  South Florida has one of the best offenses in the country and the defenses are even.  South Florida passes well and runs well and scores at will in conference games.  USF is 72 ATS and Navy is 2-7 ATS

Opinion only:
Delaware 9 1/2 (Sam Houston got its only win of year last week and it was a bizarre fluke; Delaware is better than people think)

YTD 5-4 +0.3 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Texans +1

I've waited for the Texans to be dogs to post as the number has moved all week because of the unlikelihood of Stroud playing.  I like Houston anyway.  The Jags had lost two in a row before a one point OT win over a poor Raiders team.  Houston is playing excellent defense and has been playing better teams.  True, tax beat them earlier this year 17-10 but the Jaguars benefited from being +2 in turnovers

1* Bears -4 1/2

The Bears offense is dynamic as Caleb Williams is thriving in Ben Johnson's system.  The Giants seem hopeless; the offense isn't good and the defense has gotten horrible.  Giants have given up an awful 165 points the last five weeks.

Opinion only:
Eagles +2 1/2  (Monday)

UPGRADE:

1* Connecticut +9 1/2

For reasons stated above, this is an incredible letdown spot for a good Duke team.  Virginia is next and a one point win over Clemson was last week.  UConn is an independent so this is actually an important game for them and a throwaway for Duke.  Jim Mora Jr has done a great job turning around UConn by loading up on transfers who couldn't make it as starters at power 5 teams.  

CFB YTD 4-6 -2.7 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Oregon State -20 1/2

Sam Houston isn't the worst team in college football because UMass exists.  But they're second.  Sam Houston is winless and has a terrible first year coach who wrecked Wisconsin's offense for two years and is wrecking the Sam program now.  The offense is for and the defense is atrocious.  Sam Houston is 0-8 under Longo after going 10-3 last year with a better coach.  They just gave up 55 to Lou Tech and gave up 35 to UTEP's so-so offense the week before.  Oregon State started 0-7 and fired its coach but has won two in a row and the fans actually stormed the field last week after beating the only other team in in the Pac-2 (Wash State).  OSU is at home and gets a chance to beat somebody up after a difficult season.

Opinions only:
Connecticut +9 1/2 (bad spot for Duke after beating Clemson with Virginia next and now playing a non-conf road game against a well coached team)

Missouri +7 (true, they're starting a third string quarterback and playing an unbeaten team but this isa lot of points for a quality home dog)

Add:

1* Raiders +3 (-120)

The Jaguars may be a play-against team right now after winning several early games despite being outgained.  Raiders off the bye may be a chance for a season re-set.

NFL YTD 5-3 +1.4 units

all plays 1* so far

Last week almost every favorite covered and I managed to play one of the two that didn't (Atlanta).  Wheeling back on another big favorite:

1* Lions -8 1/2

Detroit is off the bye and has been dominant since that week 1 loss to GB.  They're off the bye and at home against a Vikings team that looks to be the worst in the NFC North.  They have a QB controversy but the reality is neither of them are very good.  Vikings were killed last week by the Chargers.  Detroit's defense is as good as they offense and they held the Bucs to only 9 in the game before the bye.

CFB YTD 4-5  -1.5 units

all plays 1* so far

I'm coming off a bad 0-2 week where I lost both rated plays while winning the two "opinion" plays.  Live dogs this weekend:

1* Kansas State +7 1/2 (-120)

K-State is on a roll, killing archival Kansas last weekend after beating a solid TC team the game prior.   Texas Tech may be getting overvalued after a very strong start.  But they lost their last road game at Ariz State and they have QB issues because of injuries.  Kansas State QB Avery Johnson is having a very good season with 15 TD passes and only two INTs.  This is a tough place for a road team to win.

Opinions only:

California +4 (Virginia's last three wins were by a combined six points)

SMU +11 1/2  (this is the kind of game Mario Cristobal loses; it's only Miami's second road game of year)

@ToddC

 My opinion plays are very small bets that I don't count in my record.  I have learned to make only a small number of plays and I list the ones I like but not enough to swing hard at as "opinions"  

I made a mis-statement in my Oregon analysis when i said they are off the bye.  I meant to point out they have a bye next so have no reason to let up at home against a beaten down time like Wisconsin

NFL YTD 5-2 +2.65 units

all plays 1* so far

I won last week with the Bears to move to 5-2 on the season.  I like them again this week but have a play that's stronger:

1* Falcons -7 (-125)

Miami looks absolutely dead and the coach could be gone after this weekend.  Dolphins offense scored only six last week but, even more humiliating, gave up 31 to a really bad Browns offense.  Atlanta is 3-3 and very inconsistent offensively but the defense has been excellent and is ranked #2 in the league on some metrics.  Falcons are at home, seem motivated and are playing the league's biggest train wreck.

Opinions only:
Bears +6 (they're on a roll and Ravens defense is really bad)
Steelers +3 (GB keeps winning but not impressively; the whole Rodgers thing creates an unknown)