Griswold1

NFL YTD 3-2 +0.65 units

all plays 1* so far

I won last week with the soaring Lions and turn this week to a team that should bounce back from a beatdown:

1* Raiders -4 

LV lost 40-6 (ugh!) last week to Indy but the stats were closer.  Raiders committed two turnovers and gave up four sacks but that was to the Colts defense.  Tennessee's D is not good and is especially bad against the run.  Great spot to play against the Titans after a preposterous one point win over the Cardinals.  Raiders are better on both offense and defense.  True LV has lost four in a row but the opposition was very strong.  When you see a 1-4 favored by this much while coming off a 34-point loss, somebody is telling you something

Opinion only:

Cowboys -3 (when they get their receivers back they may score 50 every week; if only the defense......)

YTD 3-2 +0.8 units

all plays 1* so far

Thursday:

1* East Carolina +6 1/2

EC's defense has been impressive and that's a good matchup because Tulane QB is shaky. Tulane's offense is much better running but EC is holding opponents to 3.4 yards per carry on the ground.  EC held Army, which runs all the time, to only six points.  East Carolina is one of those teams nobody pays attention to and not many know they are on a 9-3 SU run since the middle of last year.  Tulane's defense is very good and they pasted Northwestern and beat an OK Duke team so I'm not knocking them here.  I merely think East Carolina is way under the radar and I'm getting nearly a TD in a tossup game

Cubs evidently switching pitchers to Matt Boyd, an ace who went only 4 1/3 on Tuesday.  I continue to like the play

YTD 7-8 -0.80 units

Playoffs 1-0 +1.0 units

Faves 1-1 -0.14 units

Dogs 6-7 -0.66 units

I won my last play with the Cubs in Game 3 of the Padres series and I'm right back on them:

1* Cubs +140

Cubs-Brewers is a big rivalry and more drama here: Brewers dumped Colin Rea after last year and he's the Cubs starter.  And there's the Craig Counsell drama: still lives in Milwaukee but hated by fan base because he dumped the Brewers to go to the Cubs.  As for the game itself, the pitching matchup is more even than it appears.  While Peralta was 16-5 on the season, the Brewers were only 20-13 in his starts (counting his no-decisions).  Cubs were 17-10 in Rea starts.  Brewers bullpen may be better but Megill has made only one appearance since spending weeks on the IL.  Cubs didn't score much in Padres series and Brewers scored on 20 in last nine regular season games.  I give a slight edge overall to the Cubs which makes +140 great value

1* Cubs To Win Series -104

Only a small dog price for a team on the road and with a poorer regular season record.  Milwaukee starting pitching is a mess.  Peralta and Priester are the only two healthy starters.  Quintana will pitch but has missed the last month.  Woodruff is out altogether and Misiorowski has been so shaky he's going to the bullpen.  Two Brewers relievers, including the closer, spent the last three weeks on the IL and both only had one comeback appearance (both in final game of season).  If Brewers win Game 1, this line will explode to +200 and will be a good bet also.

YTD 6-8 -1.80 units

Dogs 6-7 0.66 units

Faves 0-1 -1.14 units

1* Cubs -115

Both teams used a lot of relievers in Game 2 and the Cubs also went through the bullpen in Game 1 so the starters here are a key.  Yu Darvish this year was brutal on the road: 1-3 with an ugly 7.26 ERA.   He may not last long and San Diego has a great bullpen but this could be a low scoring game and if Darvish is hit early, it may doom the Padres.  On the other hand, Cubs' Taillon is 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA his last sx starts and is listed with 61% quality starts on the season.   Cubs are 51-32 at home this year and Padres are 39-44 on the road.  

Opinion only:
Red Sox +140 (two rookie pitchers so the bullpens may be used a lot and I trust Boston's more than the Yankees'.   I see this game as a tossup so the value is the dog)

NFL YTD 2-2 -0.35 units

all plays 1*

I played the Rams each of the last two weeks, losing a bad beat two weeks ago and winning with a lucky win last week.  Enough of the Rams:

1* Lions -10

Playing double digit road favorites is usually unwise but the Lions offense has been outstanding ever since an ugly week one loss to GB.  Detroit has put up 124 the last three weeks against three really good defenses (Browns, Ravens, Bears).  I don't see why Cincy will be any better at stopping them and don't see how the Bengals without Burrow can keep up.  Bengals have scored just 13 the last two weeks and while the Lions defense is weaker than what Cincy has been facing,  I don't see the Bengals getting to 20 and I'm almost convinced the Lions will be in the 30s.

Opinion only:

Chargers -2 1/2 (-120)

YTD 6-7 -0.80 units

Dogs 6-6 +0.34 units

Faves 0-1 -1.14 units

all plays 1*

1* Reds +129

The Reds must win to make the playoffs unless the Mets lose (very possible) but the games are the same time so Cincy won't know for sure.  Brewers are only trying to stay sharp as they don't play again until Saturday.  Peralta will likely pitch Saturday and he's starting today but my guess is he goes only two innings and the Milw pitchers who didn't pitch yesterday will all throw an inning.  In other words, it's a practice game for them.  Reds are on a 8-2 run.

Opinions only:

Pirates +175 ( ending season on 6-1 run)

Cardinals +126 (Cubs play Tuesday and that's their sole focus)

YTD 1-2 -1.35 units

all plays 1*

I'm still stinging from my loss on last week's  play on Rams +3 1/2 after, well, you know what happened.  I'm counting on them to get my money back this week.

1* Rams -3 (-125)

Yeah, Indy is 3-0 but two of the wins were against weak teams and the Denver win was rather lucky.  Rams had Eagles beat LW on the road (I'll stop whining there) and held them to 288 yards.

Opinions only:

Ravens -2 1/2

Jets +3 (Monday, and if I'm right Hairdo McDaniel could be fired Tuesday)

YTD 6-6 +0.14 units

Dogs 6-5 +1.35 units

Faves 0-1 -1.14 units

1* Royals +101

The Angels can't hit (other than a few HRs).  Their batting average is only .201 over the past month and if you prefer OPS it's a putrid .635 over the same period.  Angels have  quit: they've lost ten of the last eleven.  KC has scored 63 runs the last nine games and don't need to score many tonight because it's the Angels.  Royals pitcher Kolek is hot: 1.91 ERA last five starts.  Angels pitcher Kikuchi 2-5 with a 6.02 ERA his last eleven starts.  I think this is a terrible line and I'm jumping on it.

Opinions only:

Marlins +165 (on 11-1 run!)

Guardians -129 (for obvious reasons; Tigers collapse may be worst in MLB history)

NFL YTD 1-1 -0.15 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Rams +3 1/2 (-120)

The Rams have looked great on both sides of the ball, holding Houston under 10 in week 1 and scoring 33 last week at Tennessee.  This is a good time to go against the Eagles who are coming off a physical and emotional win over KC. Make sure to get the hook in what is likely to be a tight game

Opinions only:

Bears +1 (True, their defense has looked but so has the Cowboys D)

49ers -2 1/2 (even if Purdy is out they can win.....and Purdy might not be out)

NFL YTD 1-1 -0.15 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Rams +3 1/2 (-120)

The Rams have looked great on both sides of the ball, holding Houston under 10 in week 1 and scoring 33 last week at Tennessee.  This is a good time to go against the Eagles who are coming off a physical and emotional win over KC. Make sure to get the hook in what is likely to be a tight game

Opinions only:

Bears +1 (True, their defense has looked but so has the Cowboys D)

49ers -2 1/2 (even if Purdy is out they can win.....and Purdy might not be out)

CFB YTD 3-0 +3.0 units

all plays 1* so far

I remained unbeaten last week with a 28 point cover on Vanderbilt, a dog that crushed South Carolina straight up.  Three this weekend:

1* Nebraska +3 (-125)

Nebraska is essentially rested, coming off of two blowout wins against weak opponents and with a bye on deck.  Both Nebraska RBs are averaging over six yards a carry and Huskers QB Raiola has experience edge over Michigan's true freshman Underwood.  Nebraska finally gets a signature win for Rhule.  

1* Missouri -10

I went against South Carolina last week and won as they got crushed at home by Vandy and committed four turnovers.  Now they have to travel to Missouri which has a loaded offense and scored 42 against Kansas two weeks ago.  Missouri defense is only OK but SC has shown little offense and the QB is questionable.

1* UTEP -6

This line has moved up all week but it's still playable.  UTEP's defense looked very good in holding Texas and Arch Manning to 27 last week while ULM was pasted two weeks ago by Alabama giving up 73.  UTEP has its best QB in a long time in Malachi Nelson who was a five-star out of high schools but couldn't win starting jobs at USC or Boise.  Lou-Monroe may be the worst team in the Sun Belt and has shown no offense.  UTEP could hold them under 10 points.

Opinions only:
Middle Tennessee -3

Washington -19 1/2

YTD 4-6 -2.21 units

Dogs 4-5 -0.85 units

Faves 0-1 -1.36 units

all plays 1*

1* Cubs +117

Going against Skenes tonight.  He may be the Cy Young winner but Cubs' Horton is likelier to be a winning pitcher.  Horton is 10-4 and Skenes is 10-9.  You do the math.  Problem is (obviously) Pirates can't hit.  At all.   Pirates HAVE LOST NINE OF LAST TEN and have only 23 runs in those ten games.  Cubs have won five of six and are quietly gaining on Milwaukee.  Cubs' Horton's ERA is a great 2.252.  Skenes' ERA is better but he's stuck on a team that would be nowhere without him.

1* Phillies +118

Philadelphia shouldn't be a dog to anybody right now.  They are on a 10-2 run including a win over the Dodgers last night.  And they have their best pitcher going (not counting Wheeler is hurt).  Sanchez is 13-5 with a 2.54 ERA.  Dodgers are favored because Ohtani is starting (I guess) but he's gone only 27 innings in his last seven starts and his ERA is 4.67 over that stretch.  Amazing stat: Phillies are 21-8 in games Sanchez is starting pitcher

Opinion only:
Reds -117

Caveat:

I've lost four MLB plays in a row despite being very selective so there is that.  Also, line has move toward Athletics since the open and I respect line movement in low profile games because it's usually coming from sharp action.  Still, I think this line is way out of whack so I'm swinging hard at it (and trying to recover from a truly awful NFL pick last night)

YTD 4-5 -1.21 units

all plays 1*

1* Reds +113

The Athletics are the  only team in MLB with a significantly worse record at home than on the road (probably because their home field situation is a joke).  Cincinnati starter Brady Singer is excellent and is in great form: 4-0 with 1.80 ERA his last five starts.  Great stat: Reds are 21-9 with a day of rest while on road covering the last three seasons.  Athletics on a 4-8 run while Reds have won 4 of last 5.  Reds are still in it: only 1 1/2 games out of a wild card spot.  I think this game is great value.

NFL YTD 1-0 +1.0 units

Thursday:

1* Commanders +3 1/2 (-115)

While Green Bay was dominant defensively against a Detroit team that looked much worse than last year's juggernaut, the Packers offense wasn't impressive.  GB had trouble running the ball and the passing attack in the second half wasn't much.  Great value here on a Commanders team that destroyed an admittedly poor NYG on both offense and defense.  GB staying home in a short week is an obvious advantage but Washington may have been the most impressive week 1 winner. MAKE SURE TO GET THE HOOK.

Opinions only:

(Sunday)

Colts +1 (also very impressive in week 1; Bo Nix wasn't sharp for Denver)

Bears +4 1/2 (Chicago looked great for three quarters and Detroit looked lousy for three quarters)

CFB YTD 2-0 +2.0 units

all plays 1* so far

I'm 2-0 thanks to playing USC twice against a pair of overmatched teams.  They have another likely rout this week at Purdue but Lincoln Riley's lousy ATS record as a road fave prevents me from making it a full play.  Instead, an excellent dog from the SEC:

1* Vanderbilt +4 1/2

Vandy had a dominant run game last week in pounding a decent Virginia Tech defense.  Vandy also has the QB edge here with veteran Diego Pavia.  These two teams already have a common opponent in V-Tech and both won but SC was not dominant statistically while Vandy was.  Vanderbilt has most starters back from a team that over-achieved last year.  SC is a tough read after beating a FCS team last week but Vanderbilt is undervalued getting points.

Opinions only:
USC -21 (massive talent edge over Purdue)

Southern Miss +2 (at home and I think better than App State)

NFL YTD 0-0

(2024 16-10 +6.5 units)

I had a strong 2024 season and look to do even better this year.  Week 1 is one of the hardest of the year so I'm going with only one play:

1* Jets +3

This whole Steelers thing seems desperate and Aaron Rodgers may struggle.  The Steelers O-line is weak and the Jets have a good defense.  I swear Rodgers is getting weirder by the year and now seems to have fake wife.  Anyway, Terry Glenn has brought life to the Jets and Justin Fields has shown legit progress at QB

Opinions only:
Friday:
Rams +3 (always reliable angle is to go against Super Bowl loser in week one)

Monday:
Bears +1 1/2 (Vikings won lots of close games last year and were exposed in playoffs)

CFB YTD 1-0  +1.0 unit

I had an easy win last week laying 35 on a USC team that won by 60.  They face another overmatched opponent this week and I'm going to keep riding them:

1* USC -29

Jordan Maiava looked great as Trojans hung 73 on Missouri State last week.  This week's opponent looks similarly overmatched.   Georgia Southern got pasted by 28 points at Fresno State last week and now has to make a return trip to the west coast.  USC will control line of scrimmage as Georgia Southern gave up 351 on the ground last week to Fresno while USC gave up only 65 rush yards.  Trojans early schedule is extremely soft and they roll again

Opinions only:

Virginia +3

South Florida +17 1/2

CFB YTD 0-0

1* USC -35

I don't like playing big favorites in anything but this is a special spot.  USC, which has underachieved under Lincoln Riley, needs a strong start and has four very soft games to open the season but none softer than Week 1.  Missouri State is in first season in regular Division 1.  They scored a lot of points last year in FCS but their defense gave up a ton.  And that was against teams with offenses a lot less powerful than USC.  Trojans have nine starters back on offense including a full off-season for QB Jordan Maiva.  Several WR transfers too.  The backup QBs are promising and that's critical when you're laying a lot of points.  USC has retooled its defense and ex-NFL coach Rob Ryan is now involved.  Trojans need to make a dominating statement in week one and get a terrible opponent to do it against.  

Opinions only:

Wake Forest -17 1/2 (Dickert will do an excellent job coaching there)

Baylor +2 1/2 (can beat Auburn SU at home; dark horse contender to win Big 12)